NY-01 (D internal): Trump +4
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Author Topic: NY-01 (D internal): Trump +4  (Read 958 times)
VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
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« on: August 18, 2020, 05:41:45 AM »
« edited: August 18, 2020, 05:46:21 AM by VARepublican »
Global Strategy Group (D)

Trump 46%
Biden 42%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200818_NY.png

8 point swing to Biden from 2016.
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TML
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: August 18, 2020, 08:05:52 AM »
Zeldin won his 2018 election 53-47 over Gershon, so this would suggest that he is at least underperforming his 2018 result.
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Sbane
sbane
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« Reply #2 on: August 18, 2020, 10:09:06 AM »
Not a particularly great poll for Biden, but perhaps it is also evidence Biden isn't just running up the score in blue states and faltering in swing states.
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MidwestPollster
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« Reply #3 on: August 18, 2020, 10:13:27 AM »
I think this is a great poll for Biden ...Trump +12 in 2016
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Sbane
sbane
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« Reply #4 on: August 18, 2020, 10:24:51 AM »
Quote from: MidwestPollster on August 18, 2020, 10:13:27 AM
I think this is a great poll for Biden ...Trump +12 in 2016

This is an internal.....
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #5 on: August 18, 2020, 10:26:12 AM »
Zeldin will win this district and Trump will win by 3.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #6 on: August 18, 2020, 11:48:12 AM »
I'm kind of fine with Zeldin holding on in NY-01.

Redistricting will mean one fewer seat in Long Island next cycle, and there'll always have to be a GOP seat in Long Island, so NY can feed some of the GOP parts of NY-02 to NY-01 and shore up the rest of the Long Island districts to be Safe D on the next map.
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Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #7 on: August 18, 2020, 11:58:55 AM »
Quote from: The Mikado on August 18, 2020, 11:48:12 AM
I'm kind of fine with Zeldin holding on in NY-01.

Redistricting will mean one fewer seat in Long Island next cycle, and there'll always have to be a GOP seat in Long Island, so NY can feed some of the GOP parts of NY-02 to NY-01 and shore up the rest of the Long Island districts to be Safe D on the next map.

Not really possible, unfortunately. Also, there will always be a bunch of Democratic areas in the Hamptons trapped in NY-01.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #8 on: August 24, 2020, 09:08:11 AM »
GSG/Nancy Goroff internal
August 3-5, 2020
400 likely voters
MoE: 4.9%
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