Why is the Trump campaign spending resources in Utah? (user search)
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  Why is the Trump campaign spending resources in Utah? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Why is the Trump campaign spending resources in Utah?  (Read 1627 times)
Fuzzy Bear
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« on: October 26, 2016, 08:22:57 PM »

Here's the thing:  If McMullin carries Utah, that's 6 EV at his disposal.  This is critical because if Trump wins, he's likely to do so with just over 270 EV.  McMullin is not really an "Independent", but a #NeverTrump movement conservative Republican in the Ben Sasse mold, and he's got an agenda; to put a "Constitutional Conservative" in the White House.

McMullin probably has personal control of the six (6) folks who would serve as his electors.  If he carries Utah, he could have them vote for himself, in which case the House would likely elect Trump, barring massive changes that would allow Hillary to win.

But what if McMullin cast his votes for a sitting Member of Congress who was a bona fide Movement Conservative?  Ted Cruz is the obvious choice in that he ran for President and was endorsed by a lot of folks, but Cruz is personally unpopular.  Lots of GOP Representatives would gag on Cruz as much as they would gag on Trump.  McMullin could name an Establishment Republican like Marco Rubio or Jeb Bush, but I don't see that.

What would happen, however, if McMullin DID cause his EV to be cast for, say, Paul Ryan?  Or Jason Chaffetz?  Or some other House member or Senator who was an impeccable Movement Conservative like Ben Sasse; what would happen then?  House Republicans are by no means enamored of Donald Trump; are they not beyond using circumstances to elect a President they really want?

I doubt Evan McMullin hears "Hail to the Chief" when he shaves in the morning.  He knows that the House would never elect him President, but they MAY elect a Movement Conservative with a higher profile who would, doubtless, name McMullin Secretary of State, or a position at that level.  If Trump does not realize this scenario is possible, he ought to.  He needs to carry Utah to preclude this possibility.
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Fuzzy Bear
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« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2016, 10:55:12 PM »

For the hundredth time:
- When the House elects a President after an Electoral College deadlock, every state gets one (1) vote. California gets one vote, Wyoming gets one vote. Population, or number of representatives, doesn't go into it.
- #NeverTrump Republicans are a very small minority of the caucus. However, they are disproportionately located in small states, like Alaska, Utah, Idaho, and Nebraska. For this reason, Donald Trump cannot win a House ballot except in the event that the House GOP gains seats outright, and in this event he's probably already won with >270. I am willing to go into much greater detail about which individual members are likely to lose or likely to oppose Trump, and there's a good deal of whiffle either way, but it's very likely that Trump finishes with 20-24 delegations; short of the 26 he needs to win.
- An anti-Trump Republican candidate -- whether it is Gary Johnson, Evan McMullin, or somebody McMullin drafts to contest the House election, as Fuzzy Bear speculates -- cannot possibly hope to win; too many Republicans are pro-Trump (a large majority of the caucus). Hillary Clinton cannot hope to win either.
- In the event Trump actually recovers enough to throw the race to the House, it is overwhelmingly likely that Republicans hold control of the Senate. In this case, while the top three finishers from the presidential race go to the House, only the top two go to the Senate (so, Mike Pence v. Tim Kaine; Mindy Finn would not be an option). Pence would therefore be the winner.
- If the House simply lets the position of President go unfilled, the Vice President (so, Mike Pence) would then become Acting President. Note that the House must vote on the position of President "immediately"; this probably means that they can no longer elect a President after they go on their first recess after the election and the Presidency is recognized as vacant, so the Vice President accedes to the post by default. Pence would become President in this scenario even if he actively opposes it and lobbies House members to elect Trump.
Why wouldn't the House, as a whole, go rogue?

Trump isn't anyone's first choice for President, and all established factions of the GOP are not happy with Trump's hostile takeover of their Presidential Nominating Process.  There's no love lost, and Trump has given his GOP enemies all the excuses a politician would need to stab someone in the back.
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