Why did the networks take so long to call Wisconsin?

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Fox News called Wisconsin at 11:30PM. NYT had Trump at a 95%< chance to win Wisconsin by 11:30PM, and CBS had it "edge" Trump by 11:30PM (which is virtually calling it).

But no one else but Fox News would call it til 2:28AM (when CNN called it,  followed shortly by the Associated Press).

But Wisconsin should have been called MUCH sooner. The Clinton campaign kept saying Milwaukee was going to get a dump of votes but when this didn't happen the networks should have started calling Wisconsin right then and there.

All networks and news organizations should have called Wisconsin by 12:30AM. Then the networks should have called Pennsylvania all before 2AM like print media organizations did. So now Clinton is either forced to concede publicly or she still sends Podesta out.

Was it pure denial? Was it them Karl Roving and hoping Clinton still had a chance there and refusing to believe it?

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Most likely for the ratings.

I don't think so, because it seemed like they were desperately looking for a way for Clinton to win it. Reminded me of Karl Rove's Ohio freak out in 2012.

And organizations like the AP and NYT don't have to worry about ratings (and if anything, calling it earlier would have got them more clicks).

If Clinton was ahead they would have called it ASAP.

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As some of you guys were saying, Dems were looking for more votes.  Since Fox favored Trump, that's probably why they called it more quickly, but I have to say, Fox did manage to be (I believe) the first network to call the election for Trump.

Fox was lagging a bit too with Pennsylvania. The AP, NYT, WaPo, and Politico all called PA by 1:45AM. Now I read one of the reasons was because there was a glitch in precincts counted, so when the AP made their PA projection they thought 99% ballots were counted by only 89% ballots were counted (which is what the networks saw).

If that's true, I can see why Fox called Pennsylvania at 2:40AM instead of 1:40AM.

What if another major media organization called Wisconsin? Like CBS or CNN calling it at 1:00AM? That means the news organizations that use the networks and AP to make projections like Bloomberg, PBS, CSPAN, and BBC would have had Trump winning by 1:35AM, but no media organization would have called it by 2:30AM. Awkward!!!

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Interestingly enough, when Pennsylvania was called by the AP, the networks that relied on the AP call all admitted it was over, even though Wisconsin wasn't called for another hour.

Example:

https://youtu.be/NM220XCGypQ

Bloomberg would have called a state if either a) the AP called it or b) two networks called it.

So it would have been interesting to see if CNN or CBS called Wisconsin at around 1AM. Then organizations like Bloomberg and PBS would call the race for Trump at around 1:35AM but no network would outright call the race for another hour.

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For the same reason they took so long to call Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, Arizona, Missouri, etc. etc.

I was quite surprised that they called Montana at poll closing time, honestly.

Complete shock and denial?

Missouri isn't usually called until 10PM anyway though (though Fox did call it when polls closed). For example, Missouri wasn't called for Romney and Bush 04 til 10PMish. Missouri counts its votes way too slowly.

Arizona I could KIND OF see them calling it a bit late. When CNN and CBS called it (around the same time at 2:30 AM) sounded reasonable.

Georgia's late call was crazy too! Called 2 hours late. They called Virginia and Colorado ASAP  for Clinton (nothing wrong with that) but were hesitant to call Georgia, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

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For the same reason they took so long to call Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, Arizona, Missouri, etc. etc.

I was quite surprised that they called Montana at poll closing time, honestly.

Complete shock and denial?

Missouri isn't usually called until 10PM anyway though (though Fox did call it when polls closed). For example, Missouri wasn't called for Romney and Bush 04 til 10PMish. Missouri counts its votes way too slowly.

Arizona I could KIND OF see them calling it a bit late. When CNN and CBS called it (around the same time at 2:30 AM) sounded reasonable.

Georgia's late call was crazy too! Called 2 hours late. They called Virginia and Colorado ASAP  for Clinton (nothing wrong with that) but were hesitant to call Georgia, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

Didn't FOX call Florida before Georgia?  Didn't South Carolina also take a while?

AP/Politico/Fox News called Florida at about 10:55PM. Most of the other organizations wouldn't call Florida til 11:30PM.

Georgia was called by all the news organizations from 11:35-11:45PM.

It was bizarre. It was like they forgot about it. Should've been called at around 9:30PM. Atlanta was a little bit slow but it was clear Trump would win it.

South Carolina is usually called late due to slow counting. In 2004 NC was called before SC. In 2012 they didn't call SC til 8PM.

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But Wisconsin should have been called MUCH sooner.

All networks and news organizations should have called Wisconsin by 12:30AM. Then the networks should have called Pennsylvania all before 2AM like print media organizations did.

You say that, but unless you were doing a hardcore statistical analysis on it, complete with computer modeling, analyzing all of the precinct totals and exit polling, etc, then you really have no idea whether they "should" have been called earlier. The decision desks are doing all that and don't make calls until there is virtually no doubt.

Georgia was called by all the news organizations from 11:35-11:45PM.

It was bizarre. It was like they forgot about it. Should've been called at around 9:30PM. Atlanta was a little bit slow but it was clear Trump would win it.

"Clear" to you is probably a lower threshold than the statistical threshold they're looking for before making a projection they can stand behind. There's a reason the networks have had only one misfire on projections since 2000, and it's not because they make the calls once the result are clear to Atlas armchair pollsters.

If Clinton was ahead they would have called it ASAP.

Possibly. It would depend on where the vote was coming from that was putting her ahead. Regardless, if she was ahead it would be more likely she would win because it would align with the exit polls. It's basically was Gustaf said. Less evidence would be needed from raw votes to pass their statistical threshold for calling the race.

This ignores the fact Fox News was able to call it (Wisconsin) so quickly.

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This ignores the fact Fox News was able to call it (Wisconsin) so quickly.

It only ignores it in the sense that I did not directly address it. But it does not affect anything I said. Fox News has their own model, and that model allowed them to call it at 11:30. Maybe Fox News has the best model, and if so good for them.  

Except the NYT Upshot also had Trump at a 95%< of winning at 11:30 and CBS gave it the "Edge" at that time.

Trump wouldn't even have a 95%< of winning Pennsylvania until around 1AM, 30 minutes before AP called it.

The networks tried to hold off calling Wisconsin until Milwaukee absentee ballots came in, and when they did and Trump's lead was just as large they should have called it.

Remember, it was Fox News that first called Florida in 2000, which they then retracted.

CBS was the first network to retract Gore's projected win, not Fox. Quit reading socialist propaganda plz.

NBC called Florida first for Gore at 7:50PM - 10 minutes before the polls in the panhandle close. The panhandle votes 75%+ for Bush - coincidence? You decide. Source: https://uselectionatlas.org/INFORMATION/ARTICLES/ElectionNight/pe2000elecnighttime.php

Oh yeah and I should mention Fox ALSO called Florida for Gore before the panhandle closed - only ABC called Florida for Gore after the panhandle polls closed.

As I said, stop reading socialist (aka "progressive") propaganda.

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Except the NYT Upshot also had Trump at a 95%< of winning at 11:30 and CBS gave it the "Edge" at that time.

So what? Maybe CNN and NBC had it at >95% too. That's not enough to call it. They don't report their confidence levels, until they call it.

The networks tried to hold off calling Wisconsin until Milwaukee absentee ballots came in, and when they did and Trump's lead was just as large they should have called it.

You don't know why they held off calling it though. That's kind of my whole point. You're just making assumptions.

Remember, it was Fox News that first called Florida in 2000, which they then retracted.

CBS was the first network to retract Gore's projected win, not Fox.

To clarify, what I meant was that Fox News was the first to call Florida for Bush, not that they were the first to retract a call for Gore. It doesn't really matter who it was. I'm just making the point that because a network calls a race before another network doesn't mean the model or analysis of the former is better or more correct. Florida 2000 provides an unambiguous example of that.

We can't keep bringing up Florida 2000 as an example when that situation hasn't happened in a Presidential race since then.

And I think they were Karl Roving because CNN or NBC would have called it ASAP for Clinton.

95%< = 95.1%+ btw. The Upshot never had a number high than 95% (thus the greater than) so by 95%< the state can be called accurately (if it's been that way for like 20 minutes at least). A lot of pundits on Twitter thought Wisconsin was over by 12:30AM. Obama believed the call enough to call Hillary to concede after Fox called Wisconsin (this from the "Shattered" book).

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We can't keep bringing up Florida 2000 as an example when that situation hasn't happened in a Presidential race since then.

They also retracted their calls for New Mexico in 2000, but it stayed with Gore.

Yeah but they did that with Illinois and Bush in 1988 as well. Called Illinois for Dukkakis IIRC. In 1992 they called New Hampshire as the polls closed for Clinton (he won it, but definitely should not have been called as the polls closed).

It seemed normal for them to call states quickly pre-2004 (most networks called Florida for Clinton before the panhandle closed IIRC).

Ever since the 2000 election they have been more careful.

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No? >95% for 20 minutes doesn't mean you can call a state. You can call a state when the probability reaches a certain threshold (typically 99.5% or higher). It doesn't matter how long it sits at a high threshold. It just doesn't work that way.

If it was Hillary Clinton they would have called it ASAP, like they did with Virginia and Colorado (which I have no problem with BTW).

Again, so what? They're just as armchair as you are. None of you were performing hardcore mathematical models using the exit polls and raw results.

The math stated quite clearly Trump was going to win Wisconsin by then lol.

Once again, sounds like Karl Rove flipping out over Ohio in 2012

Concede before any network had actually called the whole race though? Ok, whatever. It still doesn't matter. I can concede it was extremely likely that he would win Wisconsin once a network (any network) called it. That's probably what Obama based his decision on. That still doesn't mean the result was virtually certain according to the other network analysts, or should have been. They're in a bubble. They don't know that Fox News has called the state.  They're just looking at the results and running they're models.

As I said, everyone knew Wisconsin was done - even the President.

The networks were holding out hope that she would come through. I remember CNN desperately kept saying "Milwaukee is going to come through with 60,000 ballots!!! God help us!!" and when Milwaukee came through with 99.5% precincts reported and it didn't move the needle, CNN nearly flipped lol. Madison would close the gap but it was clear it would not be enough.