CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Mike Thick]

Will Faulconer run as GOP or an independent?

Would be very weird for him not to run as a Republican. Poizner was a special thing

[smoltchanov]

Falconer is, easily, the BEST Republican GE candidate, but he must get into top 2 first. And even that (with Republican label, which is a very big albatross in California statewide races) may be (and, probably, will be) not enough...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Galvin Newsom is safe and the Redistricting map that the new commission is gonna attempt to gain back seats that D's lost in 2020, ensuring Newsom gets reelected. He has alot of money to survive any attempt to oust him

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

I hope Newsom gets primary-challenged. His COVID response is destroying the state, and he's not following his own rules.

[President Johnson]

I hope Newsom gets primary-challenged. His COVID response is destroying the state, and he's not following his own rules.

Who would you like to run? I think London Breed would make a great governor, but she's not going to run against him.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

I hope Newsom gets primary-challenged. His COVID response is destroying the state, and he's not following his own rules.

Who would you like to run? I think London Breed would make a great governor, but she's not going to run against him.

Anthony Rendon?

[Mike Thick]

So, big news: Newsom has appointed Assemblywoman Shirley Weber to fill Padilla’s spot as Secretary of State. Seems (don’t quote me) that she will run for an additional term in 2022.

Lorena Gonzalez, another State Assemblywoman from the San Diego area and arguably the previous frontrunner, has dropped out of the race and endorsed her. Not clear what Evan Low, the other current serious candidate, will do.

[Coastal Elitist]

I don't want to get my hopes up but even some of my parents Democrat friends are upset with Newsom and are leaning towards supporting a recall.

[S019]

I don't want to get my hopes up but even some of my parents Democrat friends are upset with Newsom and are leaning towards supporting a recall.

Honestly I think Newsom has enough enemies in the Democratic Party that if he is recalled some anti-Newsom Democrat will jump in, there is absolutely no way that the Republicans win a recall, and if such a recall is driven mainly by Republican signatories, then Newsom will coast against whoever the Republicans put up.

[Senator Spark]

Absolutely. He is a strong contender especially if Newsom gets recalled.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Absolutely. He is a strong contender especially if Newsom gets recalled.

Republicans aren't winning statewide in California barring a roy-moore esque democrat.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Absolutely. He is a strong contender especially if Newsom gets recalled.

Republicans aren't winning statewide in California barring a roy-moore esque democrat.

I don't think Democrats could lose even with a Roy Moore candidate, unless it was off-year.

[Mike Thick]

A lot of buzz going around that Newsom will pick Assemblyman Rob Bonta to replace Becerra if he’s confirmed.

Can we turn this into a general CA 2022 state-level races megathread? Would be nice to have one.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Absolutely. He is a strong contender especially if Newsom gets recalled.

That's the dream, but regardless, we gotta recall Newsom his stupidity, anyone else is better

[President Johnson]

Doubtful a recall would go anywhere. But it would be hilarious if he gets reelected by a closer margin than expected and then recalled in 2023, everything just like Gray Davis.

I thought Newsom has the potential to be nearly as great as Jerry Brown, but he's not even close to it. Brown was one of the best governors ever.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Doubtful a recall would go anywhere. But it would be hilarious if he gets reelected by a closer margin than expected and then recalled in 2023, everything just like Gray Davis.

I thought Newsom has the potential to be nearly as great as Jerry Brown, but he's not even close to it. Brown was one of the best governors ever.

Newsom is worse than Davis, but the state is too Democratic for him to lose.

[Kingpoleon]

Faulconer COULD beat Newsom, but he would really need to push into the Democratic voters. Unfortunately for him, Newsom is exactly the sort of technocratic progressive that makes such a push harder - it would be easier to beat most other CA Democrats.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Faulconer COULD beat Newsom, but he would really need to push into the Democratic voters. Unfortunately for him, Newsom is exactly the sort of technocratic progressive that makes such a push harder - it would be easier to beat most other CA Democrats.

Not anymore, the kind of ancestrally R swing voter that allows Schwazneger to win are gone. There's no way Faulconer could win barring a Roy Moore level scandal, and even then he'd still likley loose to another democrat who gain the top-two nomination.

[Greedo punched first]

I doubt Faulconer runs. What other Republican might run?

[President Johnson]

I doubt Faulconer runs. What other Republican might run?

According to Wikipedia, 2018 candidate John Cox started an exploratory committee. Obviously, he would get blown out again in case he makes it to the November ballot.

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1346094833119555585

The gubernatorial race is now Safe R, and the Senate race is Lean R due to Faulconer's coattails. I guess Padilla could win if Young Kim is the Republican nominee.

[KaiserDave]

People on this site and elsewhere will actually think he has a chance

[MT Treasurer]

He’ll be completely overhyped, some junky polls will predictably underestimate D strength in the state, Biden will campaign for his D opponent (not that it will matter), and he’ll go on to (obviously) lose by double digits on election day. Many will then unironically attribute it to GOP 'obstructionism' and Biden's campaign appearances similar to D'Amato's loss in 1998 (who totally would have won had Newt not been so mean to the Clintons and if Bill and Hillary had not campaigned for Schumer) even though it was always beyond obvious that he was never going to win regardless of the 'quality' of his campaign.

[Oryxslayer]

Well, he's in, unfortunately for the GOP, he ain't it. I've noted elsewhere about how the CA GOP is stuck is perpetual oblivion because the state is too large to adequately organize in when you are DOA, and to build the infrastructure to compete a candidate needs the cash that the national party will always syphon away to the 47 cheaper states that are more realistic targets. Then we get to the structural issues and how the "moderate technocratic conservative" doesn't work for the GOP anymore, as shown by Poizner who had EVERYTHING working in his favor. When presented with two candidates who are essentially pitching the same basic idea, competent govt, voters go for the party they have conditioned themselves to approve of. Next up is the primary electorate issue, and how Faulconer's moderate and Trump-dissaproving track record will ensure that he loses the runoff slot to someone from the authoritarian wing (say perpetual grifter Omar Navarro), if that person runs and gets the adequate media presence on places like Facebook needed to appeal to the backcountry radical conservatives.

If the GOP wants to actually be competitive, the can't nominate a suit with a Conservative brand of any color or alignment. What the GOP needs is to catch lightning in a bottle like they did with the Governator. Arnold had a brand large enough to compensate for a declining statewide GOP one, had an image that allowed voters to imagine the type of Republican they wanted in him, was clearly Conservative but visualized the right things to not immediately push away the legions of minorities and Democrats needed for victory, and had a following among voters who were usually reliably Democratic. The only person in the state who I thought could replicate that was Elon Musk, but he's relocation to Texas sunk that ship before it was even built. Musk right now has no apparent interest in electoral politics, and it would probably have taken things like Prop 22 getting rejected for him to step in and claim to 'defend' tech.

Oh, and reminder that the only long-term effect of a recall would be the Dem super-majorities and Democratic voters opting to scrap the recall provisions. It would be laid bare as a tool for the GOP to try and keep forcing for the outcome they and not the majority of CA voters want, so the voters would happily do away with it in the name of preserving the popular mandate.

[KaiserDave]

He’ll be completely overhyped, some junky polls will predictably underestimate D strength in the state, Biden will campaign for his D opponent (not that it will matter), and he’ll go on to (obviously) lose by double digits on election day. Many will then unironically attribute it to GOP 'obstructionism' and Biden's campaign appearances similar to D'Amato's loss in 1998 (who totally would have won had Newt not been so mean to the Clintons and if Bill and Hillary had not campaigned for Schumer) even though it was always beyond obvious that he was never going to win regardless of the 'quality' of his campaign.

I agree that Schumer would have won without Clinton campaigning or Gingrich's epic fail at being Speaker, but I don't agree with the premise that D'Amato was DOA. His singular focus on Clinton scandals after 1992 was just not smart for a Republican in New York. Especially when by 1998 positions like those were toxic for Republicans in New York. I think if D'Amato changed his approach coming out of the gate in 1992, he could have won in 98. Especially because Republicans did win in New York in 1998.

In any case Faulconer will be lucky to get 42%