Clinton/Castro: 272
Christie/Mead: 266
Sanders/Gephardt: 0
270 to win
Or Clinton/Kitzhaber; hard to know who Bernie Sanders would take as his running mate. If Al Gore endorsed Clinton and for other reasons Dick Gephardt might run for Vice President.
That makes the most sense. That also assumes that there won't be an economic meltdown such as the one that turned Herbert Hoover from the great hope of a conservative reformer to a clueless bumbler -- and that there won't be partisan fatigue that creates an opening for a charismatic Republican nominee who proves to be just what the American people want at the time.
On the other side, Republicans could be just as clueless about America in 2020 as they were in 2006 and 2008.
One possible analogue is that Barack Obama is basically the first two terms of FDR, and Hillary Clinton is the third and (assuming good health) completed fourth term of FDR. The difference? The economic meltdown of 1929-1932 utterly destroyed the Corporate Right so that it lacked the funds for lobbying, smear campaigns, and fostering anything like the Tea Party. The 2007-2009 meltdown ended with Corporate right-wingers still flush with cash for right-wing politics. To rescue the American economy, President Obama had to rescue people who hated his economic agenda. By doing so he prevented an Obama landslide in 2012.
