Hillary and 2018

[Ebsy]

No way will Walker run for another term.

[Devils30]

If Walker loses in the presidential race he probably returns to Wisconsin as damaged goods.

[Sumner 1868]

No 1966, was not the beginning of 1970s inflation. 1968 was and that was not until the end of the year. In 1966 inflation was 3%. 1968 was 4.8%.

3% was the biggest rate of inflation since the late 1950s recesssion (in fact, it was slightly worse).

I think that Republican gains in 1966 had more to do with "law and order" type issues then the economy.

I agree, but there is no doubt economics played a slight role as well.

[Mr. Illini]

Potential Democratic Governor losses would be offset by probable wins in states like MD and IL. Also, MN is not going to flip.

Ill bet N is more likely to flip than IL or MD. Unless Lisa Madigan runs, Rauner will probably win in 2018. She cant run as long as Daddy is the House Speaker. He might retire by 2018 and then she can run.

Considering how much his approvals have already taken a nosedive, I'd guess no under most circumstances.

Pols who make tough decisions after see their approvals nose dive at the beginning of their terms. But they often win re-election. Walker, Snyder, Kasich.

Erlich in MD was defeated in the best Dem mid term election since 1986. If 2018 is another 2014 or 2010, Hogan will likely win.

You're forgetting that we are talking about Illinois. We're not Wisconsin, Michigan, or Ohio.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems will def win OH, IL, Ma and MD gov elections if Tim Ryan, Madigan runs.  

Senate elections

It depends on what happens in NJ and Wva. Concerning Menendez legal issues and Manchin run for gov.

And then I definately see Tester and McCaskill losing. But can be offset if Collins and Heller run for gov.

Hillary is definately a fighter and will do everything to prevent the GOP from regaining ground.

As for the House, it will stay around 230 seats.

[Ebsy]

It's a bit early to count McCaskill out, though I do agree that she starts at a serious disadvantage. I know it is unlikely that Democrats will get another Todd Akin, but McCaskill is much smarter than most people give her credit.

[Mr. Illini]

IL starts as Lean D without Madigan, Likely D with Madigan. Rauner was elected as Not Quinn and is 1) a Republican running in Illinois 2) easy to scapegoat due to his budget fixes 3) an incumbent IL governor, and those are always unpopular.

[Ebsy]

The Democratic Party is so weak in Oklahoma that I sometimes fear a strong gust will dislodge the few Democrats left around Oklahoma City and deposit them somewhere around Sacramento.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

10 seat loss in the Senate isn't out of the question.

[Mister Mets]

So if Hillary wins in 2016, how badly will the Dems do in 2018? Given that Obama has decimated the Dem party at every level of govt except the WH, there isnt much more to lose.

But I could see the Dems losing all the 15-20 House seats they might win 2016, 3-4 Senate seats (I assume the Dems will win 3-7 seats in 2016) and a few more Governor's mansions (MN, VT, NH, CO) . The GOP will likely win MO, WV, KY and possibly VA while the Dems will likely win NJ in the next cycle. 35 GOP govs isnt out of the question.

Far from being close to permanent majority status, the Dem party under Obama/Clinton is like the GOP under Ford. They have the WH and nothing else.

Democrats would probably lose more than 3-4 Senate seats, just because of the number they're defending (25, including Angus King and Bernie Sanders.)

These include the swing states of Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Virginia, as well as conservative states like Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota and West Virginia.

Even if Republicans win the presidency, they'll probably gain in the Senate, just because winning 11 out of 33 races will net them three seats.

Tom Corbett did show that an unpopular Governor in a wave year for his party, so Governors in liberal states are vulnerable if they screw up.

Open gubernatorial elections will include Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, and Wisconsin, so those may be competitive.

[Blair]

Isn't this like saying in 2007 that the Republicans are going to struggle under President Mccain in 2010?

[Devils30]

2018 with Hillary around 50% approval would be interesting. The seats like OH, PA, FL, WI might have stayed blue in 2014 with the right campaigns. Dems overperformed Obama's 2012 in NC Senate race, something a lot of people forget.