Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Democratic Hawk]

Tuesday - October 7, 2008:

Obama - 52% (nc)
McCain - 44% (nc)

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Barack Obama attracting 52% of the vote while John McCain earns 44%. This is the second straight day that Obama has led by eight percentage points, his largest lead of the year. For the past twelve days, Obama’s support has ranged from 50% to 52% while McCain has been at 44% of 45% every day (see trends).

Obama is viewed favorably by 58% of voters, McCain by 52% (see trends). Obama is viewed Very Favorably by 39% of voters and Very Unfavorably by 28%. For McCain, those numbers are 24% Very Favorable and 26% Very Unfavorable. The two Presidential candidates will debate tonight in Nashville, Tennessee using a town hall format.

Favorability

Obama: 58% favorable; 40% unfavorable (+2, -2)
McCain: 52% favorable; 47% unfavorable (-1, nc)

[Democratic Hawk]

New Rasmussen Partisian Weight Targets [week Oct. 12-18]

Democrat 39.3% (nc)

Republican 33.0% (-0.3%)

Unaffiliated 27.7% (+0.3%)

Link

[Democratic Hawk]

Friday October 17
Obama 50 (nc)
McCain 46 (nc)

Must have been a better day for Obama.

The two candidates are even among men while Obama leads by eight points among women. Obama leads by thirteen percentage points among voters under 40 while McCain leads by six among those over 65. Voters from 40 to 64 are more evenly divided. Political conservatives favor McCain by an 80% to 17% margin while liberals favor Obama by an even wider margin, 89% to 8%

On the issues, 40% now believe their taxes will go up if Obama is elected and 30% say the same about a McCain Administration. Those numbers reflect tremendous improvement for Obama over the past couple of months.

Later today, data will be released showing public reaction to Wednesday night’s debate. Data will also be released from Colorado and Nevada.

[Democratic Hawk]

I am not weary of him, because he is a Dem or a socialist.

A pragmatic Christian Democrat - and that is what Obama is on economic and quality of life issues - is not a socialist. Fairness is inherent in Christian Democratic thought; an ideology born of the social teachings of the Catholic Church. Obama is not a Catholic; yet Douglas Kmiec, formerly the Head of the Office of Legal Counsel for presidents Reagan and George H. W. Bush, has endorsed Obama as the candidate of Catholic values

Pragmatism will guide any Obama presidency, not ideological excess. He'll pursue what's best to realise the "American Promise"

Anyway, here's Rasmussen's new partisan weighting targets for the week October 19-25, 2008:

Link

Democratic 39.7% (+0.4%)
Republican 33.0% (nc)
Unaffiliated 27.3% (-0.4%)

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

@Hawk: Don't preach to me. He is a clear cut socialist.

Bullsh**t. I tell it like it is and if you don't like it. Tough

[Democratic Hawk]

Isn't "spreading the wealth around" the basis of socialism?

I'd say taking the means of production into public, that is common, ownership is the basis of socialism

The difference between the pragmatic center-left (Democrats) and the ideological right (Republicans) is the extent to which capitalism requires "guidance" and whether fiscal policy should favor the middle class or the weathiest

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

10/23/08

Obama   52%
McCain    45%

Biggest Obama lead in two weeks.

Obama also has his highest net favorability rating for two weeks (+15) [57% favorable; 42%unfavorable]

[Democratic Hawk]

Unchanged

Obama 52
McCain 45

Obama leads by sixteen points among women, including a three-point advantage among white women. McCain leads by three among men. Obama now is supported by twelve percent (12%) of Republicans while McCain gets the vote from 10% of Democrats.

Thirty-six percent (36%) say they have already voted or plan to vote early this year. That figure includes 37% of Obama supporters and 35% of those for McCain. An amazing 49% of African-American voters say they will be voting early. Voters not affiliated with either major party are far less likely to vote early than partisans.

Today’s results mark the 29th straight day that Obama’s support has stayed between 50% or above 52%. During that period, the number voting for McCain has stayed in the 44% to 46% range every day and the gap between the candidates has ranged from four to eight percentage points.

Fifty-seven percent (57%) of voters have a favorable opinion of Barack Obama while 53% say the same about John McCain. Those figures include 41% with a Very Favorable opinion of Obama and 26% who are that enthusiastic about McCain. Seventy-six percent (76%) of Democrats have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama. Just 54% of Republicans have a Very Favorable opinion of McCain.

Forty-six percent (46%) of all voters say they are certain to vote for Obama and will not change their mind before Election Day. Forty-one percent (41%) are equally certain of their support for McCain. Two percent (2%) are committed to voting for a third party candidate.

McCain leads by just two percentage points among Investors while trailing badly among those who do not invest. Investors are generally more supportive of Republican candidates.

[Democratic Hawk]

State polls coming up later today:

Noon Eastern: North Carolina President
3 p.m. Eastern: North Carolina Governor
5 p.m. Eastern: New Hampshire President
5 p.m. Eastern: Iowa President

[Democratic Hawk]

Saturday 25th October
Obama 52 (nc)
McCain 44 (-1)

This equals Obama's biggest lead in Rasmussen.

While the overall levels of support have remained stable over the past month, voters have become more certain of their intent. Today, the percentage who say they could still change their mind is down to single digits. Forty-eight percent (48%) are now certain they will vote for Obama while 40% say the same about McCain. Nine percent (9%) lean one way or the other but could change their mind. The remaining three percent (3%) are either committed to a third party candidate or remain undecided.

Thirty days ago, while Obama enjoyed a five-point lead overall, just 41% of voters were certain they would vote for him. Thirty-nine percent (39%) said the same about McCain.

[Democratic Hawk]

Sunday - October 26

Obama: 52 (nc)
McCain: 44 (nc)

Favorable Ratings:

Obama: 57% favorable, 41% unfavorable (+1, -1)
McCain: 50% favorable, 49% unfavorable (-2, +2)

Today, the percentage who say they could still change their mind is down to single digits. Forty-eight percent (48%) are now certain they will vote for Obama while 39% say the same about McCain. One month ago, while Obama enjoyed a five-point lead overall, just 41% of voters were certain they would vote for him. At that time, 39% said the same about McCain.

[Democratic Hawk]

Monday - October 27

Obama: 51(-1)
McCain: 46(+2)

Obama now wins 11% of Republican votes while McCain gets 10% of Democrats. The candidates are essentially even among unaffiliated voters. Obama leads by ten among women overall, but McCain has a five-point advantage among white women. McCain leads by a single point among men

Favorable Ratings:

Obama: 55% favorable, 44% unfavorable (-2, +3)
McCain: 51% favorable, 48% unfavorable (+1, -1)

[Democratic Hawk]

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Obama 50% (-1)
McCain 47% (+1)

Among those who “always” vote in general elections, Obama leads by just a single point. Obama does better among more casual voters. However, among those with a high degree of interest in this year’s campaign, Obama leads by four. Among those who say they are following the race closely on a daily basis, Obama leads by five.

Among those who have already voted, it’s Obama 54% McCain 45% with other candidates picking up a single percentage point.

As for those who have not yet voted but are “certain” they will do so, the race is tied at 48%. Two percent (2%) of these “certain” voters plan to vote for a third party option while 2% say they are undecided.

Obama has a five-point advantage among those who plan to vote but say that something might come up. Hispanic voters are more likely than others to say that something might come up to prevent them from voting.

Later today, new polling data will be released for Alaska, Michigan, Minnesota, and New Mexico.

Favorability:

Obama: 55% favorable; 44% unfavorable (-1, +1)
McCain: 54% favorable; 46% unfavorable (+1, -1)

Sickening

[Democratic Hawk]

J.J. JSojourner, and Opebo will be going nuts.

I can see it now . Four more years of the relentless attack on middle class living standards, the erosion of the quality of life for millions, the outsourcing of American livelihoods ...

McCain disgusts me. It's pathetic that he can only win (and he will, I'm certain of that) this thing thanks to lies, deceit, smears, scaremongering and, worse still, as a consquence of those factors, the incitement of hatred towards a political opponent

I've lost all respect I ever had for McCain beyond his service in Vietnam

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

J.J. JSojourner, and Opebo will be going nuts.

I can see it now . Four more years of the relentless attack on middle class living standards, the erosion of the quality of life for millions, the outsourcing of American livelihoods ...

McCain disgusts me. It's pathetic that he can only win (and he will, I'm certain of that) this thing thanks to lies, deceit, smears, scaremongering and, worse still, as a consquence of those factors, the incitement of hatred towards a political opponent

I've lost all respect I ever had for McCain beyond his service in Vietnam

Dave

Oh, Christ, enough!

No, I feel strongly about Election 2008 and when things need to be said, then I'll say it

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

No, I feel strongly about Election 2008 and when things need to be said, then I'll say it

Dave

But everyone here already knows how you feel, and many probably object to aggressive partisan evangelism in a polling thread...so why does it need to be (re-re-re-re)said?

I'm not agressively Democratic; far from it. And I'm certainly not stridently ideological, one way or another

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Believe me the tears will soon pass. I'll be back into kick-ass mode sooner than you can wink

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

 
From www.fivethirtyeight.com

The Myth of the 'Lag'

One of the most bizarre but oft-repeated myths about polling is the notion that state polls 'lag' behind national polls, and particularly lag behind national trackers. This is largely a relic of a bygone era in which newspapers might commission a poll in their state, and then sit on it for several days until their Sunday editions or some other ebb in the news cycle. Thus, you might be seeing state polls that were in the field a week or so ago, whereas the national trackers were more up-to-date.

This largely is not true today, however. Rasmussen and SurveyUSA, perhaps the two most prolific public pollsters, generally release their data no later than 24 hours after it has left the field; likewise with other pollsters like InsiderAdvantage and Public Policy Polling. A couple of other pollsters like Quinnipiac and Mason-Dixon will occasionally sit on a poll for 24-48 hours, but generally not more than that. Every now and then, you'll have some small college or some fledgling marketing firm release a poll that is a couple of weeks old, but this is unusual, and it's easy to notate the exceptions. Most of the big, business-savvy pollsters recognize the importance of timeliness in this era of 24/7 news cycles.

Conversely, some of the national tracking polls are actually not all that fresh. IBD/TIPP has a 5-day polling window. Battleground also has a 5-day polling window, and they don't poll weekends, meaning that they're usually including some data that is a full week old.

Certainly, there is some mystery as to why the state polls and the national trackers seem to have diverged somewhat of late, with John McCain picking up perhaps 2 points in the tracking polls versus last week's averages, whereas the state polls haven't really budged one iota. The 'lag' effect, however, is not a valid explanation.

[Democratic Hawk]

Sunday, 7 December, 2008

Strongly Approve 44% (+1); Approve 67% (nc)

Strongly Disapprove 17% (+1); Disapprove 31% (-1)