Pennsylvania in 2016

[Slander and/or Libel]

Expect PA to be about 3-4 points more Democratic than the national margin. When there's a Republican incumbent running that number gets a little bigger, and when there's a Democratic incumbent running that number gets a little smaller. That's been pretty much it for the last few decades.

[Slander and/or Libel]

If Toomey wins while Trump loses, is it still fool's gold? That seems to be the likely situation right now (though I prefer the reverse.) It would show the GOP can win something here during a Presidential year. (I'm curious if the AG race might be tilt R too. Lots of semi-informed people still mad as heck about Kathleen Kane for whatever reason, but the uninformed will surely be filling in nearly straight ticket ballots for both sides.)

Incumbency can skew things (though it's not always enough, apologies to Santorum).

[Slander and/or Libel]

Looks to me like in open years PA is D + 3 or so, with a +/- 1.5 or so against the incumbent party. I would expect to see PA at D+2-3 in November.