Pomp and Circumstance

[alancia]

2022 Senate races polling

As of August 1st, 2022

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

Senate Map

Safe // Likely // Leaning // Tossup // Leaning // Likely // Safe

Polling Averages

New Hampshire

Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) - 47%

Fmr. Rep. Frank Guinta (R) - 44%

Other - 4%

Undecided - 5%

Rating: TOSSUP

Vermont

Lt. Gov. David Zuckerman (P) - 39%

State Rep. Bernard Juskiewicz (R) - 29%

State Sen. Becca Balint (D) - 20%

Other - 3%

Undecided - 9%

Rating: LIKELY P

Connecticut

Rep. Jim Himes (D) - 49%

Mayor Mark Boughton (R) - 41%

Other - 2%

Undecided - 8%

Rating: LIKELY D

New York

Sen. Chuck Schumer (D) - 55%

Fmr. Rep. Chris Gibson (R) - 34%

Other - 6%

Undecided - 5%

Rating: SAFE D

Pennsylvania

Sen. Pat Toomey (R) - 47%

Rep. Conor Lamb (D) - 45%

Other - 3%

Undecided - 5%

Rating: TOSSUP

Maryland

Sen. Chris van Hollen (D) - 50%

Gov. Larry Hogan (R) - 40%

Other - 3%

Undecided - 7%

Rating: LIKELY D

North Carolina

Fmr. Gov. Pat McCrory (R) - 46%

Fmr. Sec. Anthony Foxx (D) - 44%

Other - 4%

Undecided - 6%

Rating: TOSSUP

South Carolina

Sen. Tim Scott (R) - 54%

Mr. Bakari Sellers (D) - 32%

Other - 3%

Undecided - 11%

Rating: SAFE R

Georgia

Fmr. Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle (R) - 48%

Rep. Jason Carter (D) - 43%

Other - 2%

Undecided - 7%

Rating: LEAN R

Florida

Sen. Carlos Lopez-Cantera (R) - 46%

Fmr. Rep. Gwen Graham (D) - 44%

Other - 4%

Undecided - 6%

Rating: TOSSUP

Alabama

Rep. Mo Brooks (R) - 78%

Other - 10%

Undecided - 12%

Rating: SAFE R

Kentucky

Sen. Rand Paul (R) - 52%

State Rep. Russell Meyer (D) - 32%

Other - 5%

Undecided - 11%

Rating: SAFE R

Ohio

Fmr. Vice-Pres. Rob Portman (R) - 50%

Rep. Danny O'Connor (D) - 34%

Other - 4%

Undecided - 12%

Rating: SAFE R

Indiana

Sen. Todd Young (R) - 40%

Rep. Greg Pence (R-I) - 38%

Other - 13%

Undecided - 9%

Rating: SAFE R

Illinois

Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D) - 51%

Fmr. Lt. Gov. Evelyn Sanguinetti (R) - 40%

Other - 2%

Undecided - 7%

Rating: SAFE D

Wisconsin

State Sen. Devin LeMahieu (R) - 44%

Rep. Mark Pocan (D) - 44%

Other - 3%

Undecided - 9%

Rating: TOSSUP

Louisiana

Sen. John Kennedy (R) - 45%

Fmr. Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) - 24%

Fmr. Mayor Mitch Landrieu (D) - 20%

Other - 4%

Undecided - 7%

Rating: SAFE R

Arkansas

Sen. John Boozman (R) - 48%

State Sen. Clarke Tucker (D) - 38%

Other - 5%

Undecided - 9%

Rating: SAFE R

Missouri

Sen. Roy Blunt (R) - 52%

State Auditor Nicole Galloway (D) - 35%

Other - 5%

Undecided - 8%

Rating: SAFE R

Iowa

Sen. Pat Grassley (R) - 48%

Fmr. Rep. Cindy Axne (D) - 44%

Other - 3%

Undecided - 5%

Rating: LEAN R

Oklahoma

Sen. James Lankford (R) - 60%

Fmr. Mayor Kyle Lawson (D) - 31%

Other - 5%

Undecided - 8%

Rating: SAFE R

Kansas

Sen. Jerry Moran (R) - 48%

Fmr. Rep. Sharice Davids (D) - 40%

Other - 6%

Undecided - 6%

Rating: LIKELY R

South Dakota

Sen. John Thune (R) - 71%

Fmr. State Sen. Larry Diedrich (SAM) - 22%

Other - 3%

Undecided - 4%

Rating: SAFE R

Colorado

Sen. Michael Bennet (D) - 49%

Fmr. Rep. Scott Tipton (R) - 40%

Other - 4%

Undecided - 7%

Rating: LIKELY D

Arizona

Gov. Doug Ducey (R) - 47%

Sen. Ruben Gallego (D) - 45%

Other - 2%

Undecided - 6%

Rating: TOSSUP

Utah

Sen. Mike Lee (R) - 59%

Fmr. Rep. Ben McAdams (D) - 24%

Mr. Richard Davis (UUP-SAM) - 6%

Other - 3%

Undecided - 7%

Rating: SAFE R

Idaho

Sen. Mike Crapo (R) - 65%

Mr. Austin Whiting (SAM) - 21%

Other - 8%

Undecided - 6%

Rating: SAFE R

Nevada

Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) - 46%

Fmr. Gov. Brian Sandoval (R) - 45%

Other - 4%

Undecided - 5%

Rating: TOSSUP

Hawaii

Sen. Brian Schatz (D) - 62%

Mr. Ross Munns (R) - 30%

Other - 3%

Undecided - 5%

Rating: SAFE D

California

Sen. Kamala Harris (D) - 54%

Fmr. Mayor Ashley Swearengin (R) - 39%

Undecided - 7%

Rating: SAFE D

Oregon

Sen. Ron Wyden (D) - 51%

Mr. Sam Carpenter (R) - 37%

Other - 4%

Undecided - 8%

Rating: SAFE D

Washington

Sen. Patty Murray (D) - 50%

Fmr. State Sen. Dino Rossi (R) - 35%

Other - 8%

Undecided - 7%

Rating: SAFE D

Alaska

Fmr. Gov. Sarah Palin (R) - 40%

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (I) - 37%

State Sen. Tom Begich (D) - 14%

Other - 5%

Undecided - 4%

Rating: TOSSUP

[alancia]

A Hard Fought Campaign

"The next few days will determine if we continue with the policies that have failed Michigan and its people, of if we choose Patrick and forge and secure a future for this state. So go out and vote for Pat next Tuesday and show we can do it!" - Senator James (R-MI), in a Colbeck For Governor rally, November 2022

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

Rep. Greg Pence (R-IN) in a campaign speech in Evansville, Indiana, October 2022.

The 2022 Midterms, the other big political story of the year, included many competitive and closely watched races, both in the Senate and in the Governor levels. Generally, the Republicans were expecting to retain or even expand their majorities, although there were many tossup races that could go either way.

In the Senate, notable races included the Pennsylvania race, where incumbent Republican Pat Toomey was locked in a tough fight with moderate Democrat representative Conor Lamb, even though the year was generally in favor of the Republicans. Lamb was performing strongly in Philadelphia and its suburbs, and taking decent margins in areas which voted for Trump and 2016 and Pompeo in 2020, making the race a tossup.

In Vermont, a third way race ensued between Lt. Governor David Zuckerman, of the left-leaning Progressive Party, was running ahead of his Democratic and Republican rivals, and was widely expected to win after Balint (The Democrat) announced she was suspending her campaign, although  she wasn't dropping out of the race.

In the midwest, Rob Portman - the former Vice-President during the Pompeo administration - was campaigning for a return to his old seat, and was facing Democratic representative Danny O'Connor. Portman was leading widely in every poll, and most rating organizations classified the race as 'safe' for the GOP.

In the state of Wisconsin, a tough race was ensuing between Democratic representative Mark Pocan, from Madison, and State Senator Devin LeMahieu from the eastern part of the state. The race for the seat of the retiring Ron Johnson was widely viewed as a national bellwether for the control of the Senate, as Wisconsin matched the national atmosphere closely in the election cycle.

In Indiana, another notable race between two Republicans ensued. As the DSCC concentrated their efforts on defending their seats and targeting states that the Democrats won in 2020 (Florida, North Carolina), the Hoosier State was left without a Democratic candidate. This left an opening for Greg Pence, the older brother of former President Mike Pence, who ran a campaign against incumbent Todd Young. Pence's campaign including many Trumpist themes, and he was endorsed via Twitter by the former President himself - who had retired to isolation in his Florida resort.

Going to Florida itself, the Senate race in the state was disputed between the incumbent Republican Carlos Lopez-Cantera and Gwen Graham, a former representative and daughter of former Governor and Senator Bob Graham. The Florida race was widely contested, and although there were rumours of former Senator Marco Rubio trying to take back his old seat like Portman, he decided to endorse Cantera. The incumbent had a slight lead through almost every poll, and it was expected for Governor DeSantis (Who was polling better in his re-election campaign) to help the Senator. Still, since it was Florida, the race was widely characterized as a tossup.

In the state of North Carolina, the race was close between Pat McCrory, the former Republican Governor; and Anthony Foxx, the former Secretary of Transportation during the Obama administration. McCrory was targeted by Democrats for his loss against Roy Cooper in the 2016 Governor's race, and his tenure as Governor. The Republican was leading through most polls, but the race was widely considered a tossup.

In the west, the Senate races in Arizona and Nevada were also considered too close to call. Incumbent Democratic senators Cortez Masto and Gallego were facing the former and current Republican governors of their states (respectly) and although Ducey was polling somewhat better in Arizona, a result similar in 2020 where the race was settled in a recount was not off the table.

Meanwhile, in Alaska, former Governor Sarah Palin defeated incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski, a moderate Republican. Much like in 2010, Murkowski began an independent campaign, and the results were expected to be close between the two.

In the Governor's map, there were three notable races that were covered extensively. In New York, incumbent Governor Andrew Cuomo was in a tough battle for a third term against Republican NY-18 Representative and former State Senator Sue Serino. This was caused by Cynthia Nixon, an actress which primaried Cuomo in 2018, and now was running as the Working Families Party - which had decided not to endorse the Democrats. Nixon was polling strongly, mostly from progressives unhappy with the Cuomo administration, and the incumbent Governor was fighting strongly not to suffer a fate similar to Phil Murphy.

Moving on, another watched race was the Wisconsin gubernatorial, due to similar reasons with the Senate race. Furthermore, the matchup there was the same one as in 2018, as former Governor Scott Walker ran against the incumbent Tony Evers. Polling was tight through all of the campaign, and the state was especially targeted by President Klobuchar and other Democrats who didn't want Wisconsin to go the same way as Michigan - which was trending Republican at a fast pace - with incumbent Governor Whitmer looking at a loss against Patrick Colbeck, a state senator.

The final observed race was the Kansas gubernatorial, where incumbent Democrat Laura Kelly was battling a strong challange from Susan Wagle, the Senate President. Independent Greg Orman, which had ran in the 2018 race and in the 2014 Kansas Senate, also was a candidate this year; and affiliated himself with the Save America Movement, which had presented Senate candidates in the uncontested North Dakota and South Dakota races amongst others.

In general, Republicans were also looking at a slight expansion of their House Majority, although nothing was guaranteed to happen until Election Day. Polling in the days before the election nevertheless showed a favourable forecast for the GOP.

Gallup Polling, November 3-7 2022:

Klobuchar Approval Rating: Approve 50%, Dissaprove 44% , Unsure 6%

Congressional Generic Ballot: Republicans 50%, Democrats 45%, Unsure 5%

Gov. Laura Kelly (D-KS) campaigning for re-election, October 2022.

[alancia]

Election Night 2022

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Good evening and welcome to Decision 22! This night, the American people will choose their Governors, Senators, and Representatives. It is only a few minutes until the 6 AM Poll closings and while we await them we have some results from the exit polls, which may or may not be consistent with the election results...

Klobuchar Approval:  50% Approve, 49% Dissaprove, 1% No Answer

Midterm Vote: 52% Republicans, 47% Democrats, 1% No Answer

6 PM

Now its 6 PM on the East Coast and polls have closed in parts of Kentucky and Indiana. For now, we have put the Senate races in both of these states in the 'too close to call' category, as we await poll closings in the rest of these states in one hour. For now, sit back and relax...

Indiana Senate (3% Reporting)

Pence: 51%
Young: 40%
Other: 11%

Kentucky Senate (2% Reporting)

Paul: 59%
Meyer: 38%
Other: 3%

7 PM

Its 7 PM on the East Coast and we now have poll closings in the remaining parts of Kentucky and Indiana, and also in the states of Virginia, South Carolina, Georgia and most of Florida, and we have some projections to make... In the Senate, we can project that Rand Paul and Tim Scott will win re-election for another six year term. In Vermont, Florida and Georgia, it is either to close or too early to call.

In the Governor's race, we can project that Governors Scott and McMaster will win re-election in Vermont and South Carolina, respectly. The races in Florida and Georgia meanwhile are too early to call, as we await for more results...

Kentucky Senate (6% Reporting)

Paul: 58% ✓
Meyer: 39%
Other: 3%

South Carolina Senate (5% Reporting)

Scott: 58% ✓
Sellers: 40%
Other: 2%

Indiana Senate (9% Reporting)

Pence: 52%
Young: 41%
Other: 7%

Vermont Senate (3% Reporting)

Zuckerman: 38%
Juskiewicz: 32%
Balint: 22%
Other: 8%

Georgia Senate (4% Reporting)

Cagle: 52%
Carter: 43%
Other: 5%

Florida Senate (3% Reporting)

Lopez-Cantera: 50%
Graham: 47%
Other: 3%

Vermont Governor

Scott: 57% ✓
Pollina: 36%
Other: 7%

South Carolina Governor

McMaster: 58% ✓
Benjamin: 38%
Other: 4%

Georgia Governor

Kemp: 53%
Yates: 42%
Other: 5%

Florida Governor

DeSantis: 53%
Cruz: 45%
Other: 2%

Senate Map

Democratic States // Polls Not Closed Yet Or No Election // Too Early or Close To Call // Republican States

Republicans: 36 Seats
Democrats: 33 Seats
Independents: 2 Seats (Not Up For Re-Election)

Governor's Map

Democratic States // Polls Not Closed Yet Or No Election // Too Early or Close To Call // Republican States

Republicans: 11 Seats
Democrats: 5 Seats

[alancia]

Election Night 2022

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

7:30 PM

Its half past seven PM on the East Coast and polls have closed in the states of Ohio, West Virginia and North Carolina. We have one projection to make, and that is that the Ohio Senate race will be won by former Vice-President Rob Portman. Meanwhile, the North Carolina Senate race between McCrory and Foxx is too early to call... The Ohio Governor's race is also too early to call, but Husted is in the lead.

Ohio Senate (3% Reporting)

Portman: 55% ✓
O'Connor: 42%
Other: 3%

Ohio Governor

Husted: 52%
Schiavoni: 45%
Other: 3%

North Carolina Senate (2% Reporting)

Foxx: 48%
McCrory: 47%
Other: 5%

7:54 PM

Six minutes before the 8 PM closings we have an important projection to make, we can now say that David Zuckerman, the Vermont lieutenant governor, will be the next U.S Senator from the state, replacing the retiring Pat Leahy. This adds another seat in the Senate that is not Democrat and Republican, and Vermont will uniquely not be represented by either party, with independent Bernie Sanders on the other seat...

Vermont Senate (11% Reporting)

Zuckerman: 41% ✓
Juskiewicz: 30%
Balint: 22%
Other: 7%

8:01 PM

Its now a minute past 8 PM on the East Coast and we have a lengthy list of states that have closed their polls, and that includes New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Maine, Maryland, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Alabama, Mississippi, Missouri, Tennessee, Illinois, Oklahoma and Delaware. Also closing their polls are most of Michigan; Texas; Kansas; and South Dakota, the Florida Panhandle and parts of North Dakota.

Likewise, we do have projections to make both in the Senate and in the Governor's race and let's run the board... For the Senate, we can project that Senators Lankford and Blunt will stay in the upper chamber, while the unopposed Mo Brooks will replace the retiring Richard Shelby in Alabama. For the Democrats, Tammy Duckworth is re-elected for another six year term in the Senate, as well. Meanwhile, the Senate races in the states of Maryland, Connecticut, New Hampshire, Florida, Pennsylvania, Kansas and in the Dakotas are too early or too close to call.

For the Governors, we project that Governors Lee, Stitt, Baker and Ivey; all Republicans, will win re-election in their states. In Illinois, Democrat Pritzker will also win re-election. In Texas, Florida, Kansas, South Dakota, New Hampshire, Maine, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Maryland it is either too close or too early to call.

Oklahoma Senate (3% Reporting)

Lankford: 64% ✓
Lawson: 33%
Other: 3%

Missouri Senate (2% Reporting)

Blunt: 54% ✓
Galloway: 41%
Other: 5%

Alabama Senate (1% Reporting)

Brooks: 89% ✓
Other: 11%

Illinois Senate (4% Reporting)

Duckworth: 52% ✓
Sanguinetti: 43%
Other: 5%

Maryland Senate (4% Reporting)

van Hollen: 53%
Hogan: 44%
Other: 3%

Connecticut Senate (2% Reporting)

Himes: 52%
Boughton: 45%
Other: 3%

New Hampshire Senate (2% Reporting)

Guinta: 48%
Hassan: 46%
Other: 6%

Florida Senate (15% Reporting)

Lopez-Cantera: 51%
Graham: 46%
Other: 3%

Pennsylvania Senate (3% Reporting)

Lamb: 49%
Toomey: 47%
Other: 4%

Kansas Senate (2% Reporting)

Moran: 50%
Davids: 43%
Other: 7%

South Dakota Senate (1% Reporting)

Thune: 76%
Diedrich: 21%
Other: 3%

North Dakota Senate (1% Reporting)

Hoeven: 80%
Sand: 16%
Other: 4%

Oklahoma Governor

Stitt: 62% ✓
Horn: 35%
Other: 3%

Alabama Governor

Ivey: 65% ✓
Fischer: 33%
Other: 2%

Tennessee Governor

Lee: 63% ✓
Briley: 34%
Other: 3%

Massachusetts Governor

Baker: 71% ✓
Bussgang: 28%
Other: 1%

Illinois Governor

Pritzker: 56% ✓
Fowler: 42%
Other: 2%

Texas Governor (2% Reporting)

Crenshaw: 56%
Gallego: 40%
Other: 4%


Florida Governor

DeSantis: 54%
Cruz: 44%
Other: 2%

Kansas Governor

Kelly: 45%
Wagle: 44%
Orman: 8%
Other: 3%

South Dakota Governor

Noem: 60%
Dawn Foster: 35%
Other: 5%

New Hampshire Governor

Sununu: 51%
Tanner: 47%
Other: 2%

Maine Governor (3% Reporting)

Mills: 50%
Cyrway: 46%
Other: 4%

Connecticut Governor

Stefanowski: 49%
Lamont: 47%
Other: 4%

Rhode Island Governor (2% Reporting)

Lynch: 45%
Algiere: 43%
Hagan: 9%
Other: 3%

Pennsylvania Governor

Corman: 47%
Fetterman: 47%
Other: 6%

Maryland Governor

Delaney: 51%
Rutherford: 46%
Other: 3%

Michigan Governor (3% Reporting)

Colbeck: 54%
Whitmer: 42%
Other: 4%

Senate Map

Democratic States // Polls Not Closed Yet Or No Election // Too Early or Close To Call // Republican States // Other Party

Republicans: 40 Seats
Democrats: 34 Seats
Other Party: 1 Seat
Independents: 2 Seats (Not Up For Re-Election)

Governor's Map

Democratic States // Polls Not Closed Yet Or No Election // Too Early or Close To Call // Republican States

Republicans: 15 Seats
Democrats: 5 Seats

[alancia]

I seriously doubt Boyd Rutherford will run for governor (I don't think he wants the job) and having met him I really don't think he has the personality to win a campaign here in MD. Delaney's bland enough that the race might be close, though.

Yeah. In this case the Republicans convince him to run, but MD-gov is the most vulnerable Republican governorship for these reasons.

Anyway, thanks for commenting!

[alancia]

Election Night 2022

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8:22 PM

Just some minutes before half past eight on the Eastern timezone and we have another projection to make. In the state of Indiana, we can project that Greg Pence, the brother of the former President, will unseat Republican Todd Young in the Senate Race. Initially an underdog, Pence has caught up in the recent weeks and now it looks like he's defeating Young by quite a large margin there...

Indiana Senate (22% Reporting)

Pence: 53% ✓
Young: 41%
Other: 6%

8:30 PM

Only one state closes its poll at half past eight and its the Natural State, Arkansas. There, we can make two projections, as expected... In the Senate Race, we can project that John Boozman will return for another six year term. At the gubernatorial level, we can also say that Lance Eads is the projected winner, replacing the term-limited Asa Hutchinson.

Arkansas Senate (3% Reporting)

Boozman: 57% ✓
Tucker: 39%
Other: 4%

Arkansas Governor

Eads: 60% ✓
Jordan: 36%
Other: 4%

8:46 PM

Just fourteen minutes before the nine o'clock poll closings and we have a new projection to make. In Florida, the Sunshine State, we can project the gubernatorial race for Governor DeSantis. This is a very important hold for the Republicans, and one that may have some effect on the Senate race.

Florida Governor (51% Reporting)

DeSantis: 54% ✓
Cruz: 45%
Other: 1%

9 PM

We have reached another important poll closing time, at nine o'clock the polls have closed in the states of Wisconsin, New York, Louisiana, Minnesota, Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Nebraska, Wyoming, and parts of Texas; Kansas; The Dakotas and Michigan.

At the top of the hour we can project that the Senate races in North and South Dakota will be won by the Republicans, defeating some token opposition there, as well as in Kansas we can project that Senator Jerry Moran will be re-elected. In New York, Chuck Schumer, the Senate Minority Leader, will also win re-election. Meanwhile, the Senate races in the rest of these states are too close or too early to call...

In the Governor's races, we can project the races in South Dakota, Nebraska, Texas and Wyoming for the GOP, and the race in New Mexico for Governor Grisham, the Democrat. The races in the states of Wisconsin, New York, Michigan, Minnesota, Arizona and Colorado are meanwhile too early or too close to call as well.

South Dakota Senate (5% Reporting)

Thune: 74% ✓
Diedrich: 22%
Other: 4%

North Dakota Senate (6% Reporting)

Hoeven: 81% ✓
Sand: 15%
Other: 4%

Kansas Senate (14% Reporting)

Moran: 51% ✓
Davids: 44%
Other: 5%

New York Senate (5% Reporting)

Schumer: 56% ✓
Gibson: 38%
Other: 6%

Louisiana Senate (4% Reporting)

Kennedy: 52%
Edwards: 31%
Landrieu: 16%
Other: 1%

Wisconsin Senate (3% Reporting)

Pocan: 48%
LeMahieu: 47%
Other: 5%

Colorado Senate (5% Reporting)

Bennet: 53%
Tipton: 43%
Other: 4%

Arizona Senate (5% Reporting)

Ducey: 50%
Gallego: 48%
Other: 2%

South Dakota Governor

Noem: 56% ✓
Dawn Foster: 41%
Other: 3%

Texas Governor (10% Reporting)

Crenshaw: 57% ✓
Gallego: 39%
Other: 4%

Nebraska Governor (3% Reporting)

Foley: 59% ✓
Lathrop: 36%
Other: 5%

Wyoming Governor (2% Reporting)

Gordon: 68% ✓
Mackey: 28%
Other: 4%

New Mexico Governor (3% Reporting)

Grisham: 53% ✓
Baldonado: 40%
Other: 7%

Arizona Governor

Reagan: 51%
Gordon: 45%
Other: 4%

Wisconsin Governor

Walker: 47%
Evers: 46%
Other: 7%

Colorado Governor

Polis: 54%
Gardner: 42%
Other: 4%

New York Governor

Cuomo: 40%
Serino: 40%
Nixon: 14%
Other: 6%

Michigan Governor (15% Reporting)

Colbeck: 52%
Whitmer: 44%
Other: 4%

Minnesota Governor (4% Reporting)

Walz: 50%
Stauber: 44%
Other: 6%

Senate Map

Democratic States // Polls Not Closed Yet Or No Election // Too Early or Close To Call // Republican States // Other Party

Republicans: 44 Seats
Democrats: 35 Seats
Other Party: 1 Seat
Independents: 2 Seats (Not Up For Re-Election)

Governor's Map

Democratic States // Polls Not Closed Yet Or No Election // Too Early or Close To Call // Republican States

Republicans: 20 Seats
Democrats: 6 Seats

[alancia]

Election Night 2022

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

9:21 PM

Some twenty minutes past 9 PM on the East Coast and we have a number of projections to make right now... In the states of Florida and Georgia, we can project the Senate races in these states for Republicans Lopez-Cantera and Cagle. We can also project the Senate race in Maryland for incumbent Chris van Hollen, beating off a strong challenge from Governor Hogan. In Connecticut, we can also say that Jim Himes will be the new Senator-elect of the Nutmeg State.

In the Gubernatorial races, we project that Governor Brian Kemp will be re-elected in the Peach State, and that Jared Polis in Colorado will also be re-elected. In Ohio, we also project that Jon Husted will replace the retiring Mike DeWine as governor of the state.

Florida Senate (56% Reporting)

Lopez-Cantera: 51% ✓
Graham: 45%
Other: 4%

Georgia Senate (58% Reporting)

Cagle: 51% ✓
Carter: 44%
Other: 5%

Maryland Senate (45% Reporting)

van Hollen: 54% ✓
Hogan: 43%
Other: 3%

Connecticut Senate (43% Reporting)

Himes: 53% ✓
Boughton: 43%
Other: 4%

Georgia Governor

Kemp: 52% ✓
Yates: 45%
Other: 3%

Ohio Governor (52% Reporting)

Husted: 54% ✓
Schiavoni: 42%
Other: 4%

Colorado Governor (15% Reporting)

Polis: 53% ✓
Gardner: 43%
Other: 4%

9:30 PM

Thirty minutes past 9 PM on the East Coast and we have our first flips that we can project, and these are that in Kansas and Michigan, Republican candidates Susan Wagle and Patrick Colbeck will gain the governorship of these two states for the GOP. These are very important news for the Republicans, which are close to keeping their majority in the National Governor's Asssociation.

Michigan Governor (60% Reporting)

Colbeck: 51% ✓ (FLIP)
Whitmer: 44%
Other: 5%

Kansas Governor (58% Reporting)

Wagle: 48% ✓ (FLIP)
Kelly: 42%
Orman: 9%
Other: 1%

9:51 PM

We have a new projection to make some minutes before 10 PM, and that is Michael Bennet will be re-elected to the Senate in the state of Colorado, defeating former Representative Scott Tipton.

Colorado Senate (30% Reporting)

Bennet: 52% ✓
Tipton: 44%
Other: 4%

9:55 PM

Hold on, we have another projection that will lift the spirits of some Democrats... and that is that in Maine, incumbent Governor Janet Mills will win re-election, defeating State Senator Cyrway.

Maine Governor (63% Reporting)

Mills: 51% ✓
Cyrway: 44%
Other: 5%

10 PM

We have reached the time for the 10 PM poll closings, in the states of Utah, parts of Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Iowa and Malheur County in Oregon.

At the top of the hour we can project the Senate race in the state of Utah for incumbent Mike Lee, and that also Kim Reynolds will win re-election for a second full term in Iowa. Meanwhile, the Senate races in Iowa, Idaho, Nevada and Oregon are too close or too early to call, and the Governor ones in the last three states are too early to call as well.

Utah Senate (3% Reporting)

Lee: 61% ✓
McAdams: 25%
Davis: 9%
Other: 5%

Iowa Governor (4% Reporting)

Reynolds: 53% ✓
Finkenauer: 43%
Other: 4%

Iowa Senate

Grassley: 51%
Axne: 46%
Other: 3%

Idaho Senate

Crapo: 67%
Whiting: 24%
Other: 9%

Nevada Senate (3% Reporting)

Sandoval: 48%
Cortez Masto: 46%
Other: 6%

Oregon Senate (Malheur County Reporting)

Carpenter: 67%
Wyden: 29%
Other: 4%

Idaho Governor

Little: 62%
Dill: 27%
Other: 6%

Nevada Governor

Laxalt: 47%
Sisolak: 47%
Other: 6%

Oregon Governor

Hayden: 70%
Malstrom: 26%
Other: 4%

Senate Map

Democratic States // Polls Not Closed Yet Or No Election // Too Early or Close To Call // Republican States // Other Party

Republicans: 47 Seats
Democrats: 39 Seats
Other Party: 1 Seat
Independents: 2 Seats (Not Up For Re-Election)

Governor's Map

Democratic States // Polls Not Closed Yet Or No Election // Too Early or Close To Call // Republican States

Republicans: 25 Seats
Democrats: 8 Seats

[alancia]

Election Night 2022

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

10:15 PM

A quarter past the 10 PM mark and we have a number of calls, all of them coming from New England. In the state of New Hampshire, we can project that Governor Sununu will win re-election in the Granite State. In Rhode Island, we can also project the gubernatorial race for Dennis Algiere, a pickup for Republicans. We also project that Bob Stefanowski will defeat incumbent Ned Lamont in Connecticut, a gain for the GOP. This puts the Republicans with a majority of U.S Governorships.

At the same time, we can also say that Maggie Hassan will win re-election to the U.S Senate in New Hampshire, a hold for the Democrats.

New Hampshire Governor (80% Reporting)

Sununu: 52% ✓
Tanner: 44%
Other: 4%

Rhode Island Governor (76% Reporting)

Algiere: 44% ✓ (FLIP)
Lynch: 41%
Hagan: 9%
Other: 6%

Connecticut Governor (74% Reporting)

Stefanowski: 51% ✓ (FLIP)
Lamont: 44%
Other: 5%

New Hampshire Senate

Hassan: 49% ✓
Guinta: 45%
Other: 6%

10:27 PM

Some three minutes before the half past ten in the East Coast and we have a new projection to make... John Delaney, the former Representative who ran for President in 2020 will defeat Boyd Rutherford in Maryland, in what is the first Democratic pickup of the night in the Governor's races. In the Senate, we also call North Carolina for former Governor McCrory, beating a strong challenge from Anthony Foxx.

Maryland Governor (81% Reporting)

Delaney: 52% ✓ (FLIP)
Rutherford: 46%
Other: 2%

North Carolina Senate (90% Reporting)

McCrory: 50% ✓
Foxx: 48%
Other: 2%


10:45 PM

Fifteen minutes before the eleven PM closings we've got three races to call right now, and that in the Iowa Senate Race the winner is Pat Grassley, the grandson of former President Chuck Grassley, now elected to a full six year term. In the Gubernatorial map, we can also project that in Arizona Michele Reagan is the winner, and that Tim Walz the Democrat will be re-elected in Minnesota.


Iowa Senate (14% Reporting)

Grassley: 52% ✓
Axne: 45%
Other: 3%

Arizona Governor (32% Reporting)

Reagan: 52% ✓
Gordon: 46%
Other: 2%

Minnesota Governor (35% Reporting)

Walz: 51% ✓
Stauber: 45%
Other: 4%

11 PM

We have reached the eleven PM mark, and that means poll closings in the states of California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii and the Idaho panhandle.

At the top of the hour we can project the following races... in Idaho, Governor Little and Senator Crapo, both Republicans, will be re-elected. Likewise, Senators Harris, Schatz, Wyden and Murray will be elected to serve another term in the upper chamber, big holds for the Democrats in this night. Also, we can project that Gavin Newsom will be re-elected in California, and Josh Green will now serve as the new Governor of Hawaii replacing the retiring David Ige. The Oregon gubernatorial race is too early to call at this hour.

Idaho Senate (20% Reporting)

Crapo: 68% ✓
Whiting: 25%
Other: 7%

Hawaii Senate (3% Reporting)

Schatz: 62% ✓
Munns: 34%
Other: 4%

California Senate (4% Reporting)

Harris: 55% ✓
Kim: 45%

Oregon Senate (5% Reporting)

Wyden: 55% ✓
Carpenter: 41%
Other: 6%

Washington Senate (2% Reporting)

Murray: 52% ✓
Rossi: 43%
Other: 5%

Idaho Governor

Little: 59% ✓
Dill: 34%
Other: 7%

California Governor

Newsom: 54% ✓
Swearengin: 46%


Hawaii Governor

Green: 55% ✓
Favella: 42%
Other: 3%

Oregon Governor

Malstrom: 50%
Hayden: 45%
Other: 5%

Senate Map

Democratic States // Polls Not Closed Yet Or No Election // Too Early or Close To Call // Republican States // Other Party

Republicans: 50 Seats
Democrats: 39 Seats
Other Party: 1 Seat
Independents: 2 Seats (Not Up For Re-Election)

Governor's Map

Democratic States // Polls Not Closed Yet Or No Election // Too Early or Close To Call // Republican States

Republicans: 30 Seats ✓
Democrats: 13 Seats

[alancia]

Election Night 2022

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

11:26 PM

Some twenty five minutes past eleven o'clock on the East Coast and we've got two new projections, both coming from the state of Pennsylvania. In the Senate race, we can project that Representative Conor Lamb will unseat the incumbent Pat Toomey, in what is something of a surprise, since this is a Democratic pickup in a state Pompeo won in 2020. Likewise, we can also project that John Fetterman the Lieutenant Governor will win the Gubernatorial race in the state, a hold for the Democrats, and very big news for them.

In Oregon, we can also call the Governor's race for State Senator Malstrom, a hold for the Democrats.

Pennsylvania Senate (89% Reporting)

Lamb: 49% ✓ (FLIP)
Toomey: 47%
Other: 4%

Pennsylvania Governor

Fetterman: 50% ✓
Corman: 48%
Other: 2%

Oregon Governor (14% Reporting)

Malstrom: 51% ✓
Hayden: 43%
Other: 6%

11:45 PM

We have around fifteen minutes until November 9th here in the East Coast and we've got three very big projections for the Republicans. In Arizona, we can project that outgoing Governor Doug Ducey will unseat Democratic incumbent Ruben Gallego in the Senate Race. Critically, this brings the GOP to 51 Senate Seats and thus gives them the majority.

We can also project that the House of Representatives will remain in Republican hands, and the GOP is looking to have an increase of twelve to twenty five seats in the House.

Arizona Senate (52% Reporting)

Ducey: 51% ✓ (FLIP)
Gallego: 45%
Other: 4%




Speaker McCarthy will keep his job come next January.

12 AM

Its the dawn of a new day here in the Eastern Timezone and polls have closed in Alaska, the Last Frontier. We do have a projection to make, and that is that Governor Dunleavy will win re-election, defeating Anchorage Mayor Ethan Berkowitz. Meanwhile, the Senate race mainly between former Governor Palin and Senator Murkowski is too early to call.

Alaska Governor (3% Reporting)

Dunleavy: 52% ✓
Berkowitz: 41%
Other: 7%

Alaska Senate

Palin: 41%
Murkowski: 39%
Begich: 15%
Other: 5%

12:21 AM

Minutes before half past twelve here and we've got two projections to make, coming from the state of Nevada. We can project a double flip for the Republicans, as we can now say that Brian Sandoval will unseat incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto in the Senate Race, while Republican gubernatorial candidate Adam Laxalt will win his rematch against Steve Sisolak. Two more flips for the Republican Party in this night.

Nevada Senate (53% Reporting)

Sandoval: 51% ✓ (FLIP)
Cortez Masto: 46%
Other: 3%

Nevada Governor

Laxalt: 50% ✓ (FLIP)
Sisolak: 46%
Other: 4%

12:30 AM

Hold on... we've got another projection to make... we can now say that in the state of Louisiana incumbent Senator John Kennedy will win the race there, without having to advance into a runoff with a Democratic candidate. With almost all of the vote counted, he is above the fifty percent mark and thus will hold his seat.

Louisiana Senate (91% Reporting)

Kennedy: 52% ✓
Edwards: 27%
Landrieu: 14%
Other: 7%

1:23 AM

Its almost half past thirty in the morning and we've got a major, major projection to make. In the state of New York, we can now say that Andrew Cuomo has gone down, and lost his re-election for a third term to Representative Serino by around 0.5%, which is a major victory for the Republicans and a major defeat for Democrats in the Empire State.

New York Governor (98% Reporting)

Serino: 41.20% ✓ (FLIP)
Cuomo: 40.70%
Nixon: 13.85%
Other: 4.25%

2:40 AM

At this late hour we've got two opposite projections coming out of Wisconsin. In the Senate Race, we can project that Devin LeMahieu will hold Ron Johnson's seat for the Republicans, while Scott Walker will once again go down against Tony Evers by a narrow, narrow margin. It depends in what you care the most about if you're happy or not so happy, it seems.

Wisconsin Senate (95% Reporting)

LeMahieu: 49% ✓
Pocan: 48%
Other: 3%

Wisconsin Governor

Evers: 48.56% ✓
Walker: 48.11%
Other: 3.33%

5:46 AM

Its early morning on the East Coast and we've got the a final projection to make. In the state of Alaska, we can project that former Governor Sarah Palin will unseat incumbent Lisa Murkowski in the Senate race. This is a technical defeat for Klobuchar, as Murkowski was one of the Republicans most willing to work with her administration, and her defeat will surely change things for the President.

Alaska Senate (99% Reporting)

Palin: 42% ✓
Murkowski: 41%
Begich: 13%
Other: 4%

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

Final Senate Map

DEM Hold /// DEM Gain /// GOP Gain /// GOP Hold /// OTHER Gain

GOP Pickups: AZ, NV

DEM Pickups: PA

OTHER Pickup: VT

Net: GOP+1, OTHER+1

Senate Composition after January 3rd, 2023:

GOP - 54

DEM - 43

IND - 2 (Caucusing with Democrats)

OTHER - 1

GOP HOLD

Final Gubernatorial Map

DEM Hold /// DEM Gain /// GOP Gain /// GOP Hold

GOP Pickups: NV, KS, MI, NY, CT, RI

DEM Pickups: MD

Net: GOP+5

NGA Composition:

GOP - 32

DEM - 18

GOP HOLD

House of Representatives

Net: GOP+12

House Composition:

GOP - 239

DEM - 196

GOP HOLD

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

[alancia]

Midterm Reaction

"New York, from the city to the smallest town, has hurt in the recent years due to bickering in D.C and in Albany. We must remember that events like the Brooklyn blockade only happen because we stop looking at others and what they want or need..." - Sue Serino, 57th Governor of New York, Inauguration Speech, January 2023

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

Kevin McCarthy with the Speaker's Gavel, January 2023

2022 was definitely a good year for the Republican Party. It had expanded its majorities in the Senate, the House and the state governorships. This received different reactions from all over the political spectrum.

Republicans, of course, were happy. Immediately after their victory, core GOP leaders began crafting an agenda for their expanded majorities. Determined to set a different tone to Klobuchar's presidency, this mainly consisted of a 'mainstream' Republican proposals, such as enacting 'Tax Cuts 2.0', a revived focus on free trade, and even partially repealing the FFWA law.

However, this quickly turned into a conflict with the more anti-establishment parts of the Republican party. Led by incoming Senators Palin and Pence, this faction disregarded the economic focus of the party leadership in favor of a more 'traditional', protectionist and morally conservative vision. In a nutshell, this was another fight for the soul of the GOP, with the Republican leadership looking to move on from a 'problematic' Trump that they feared awakened the memories of 2019 in Americans, and the Pence wing drawing from a large and resentful wing which had lamented Trump's fall in 2019 - and viewed GOP leadership and by consequence its proposals as complicit to Democrats. Mitch McConnell, leader of the Senate GOP since 2006, had confirmed that 2023-2025 would be his last years as such, which for many meant the end of an era, and fueled the dissident Republicans in their fight.

This highlighted future fights nevertheless, and for the moment the Republicans allowed themselves to be united after their victories. For the Democrats, this was a painful blow, as Klobuchar had lost even more seats in the House and the Senate and even a Republican ally (Murkowski) in 2022. In her November 9th post-midterm press conference, the President struck a defiant tone despite all of this, and called the results not a referendum of her Presidency, but a reaction to the slow pace of Washington compared to the wants and needs of American citizens.

A bright spot for the Democrats was the state of Pennsylvania, where Representative Conor Lamb defeated the incumbent Pat Toomey to cancel one of the two GOP gains in the upper chamber, and John Fetterman held the governorship of the state against Republican Jake Corman. David Zuckerman's victory in Vermont was also an interesting event, although he rejected to caucus with Senate Democrats, he mostly voted in line with their positions. Nevertheless, he would prove an independent voice in the Senate, similar to his fellow Senator Sanders.

The new Republican governors were also a mixed deal, ranging from moderates such as Sue Serino in New York, business outsiders like Stefanowski in Connecticut, and avowed Trumpists like newly elected Patrick Colbeck in Michigan.

With 2022 done, many eyes were already looking into the 2024 Presidential Election. Although it wouldn't be like the 2020 Election were prominent Democrats already declared their candidacies in January of 2019, names were already beginning to be floated, for example a potential Pompeo rematch or rumours of former Vice-President Portman assembling a campaign staff.

These rumours were still what they were, rumours - Portman would confirm he was not looking into a future Presidential campaign, and although Pompeo said the thoughts of a 2024 run had crossed his mind, he hadn't made a clear decision or if he wanted to be President again or not. In the end, 2024 was one year away, and as previous years showed, everything could happen between the year a new Congress was inaugurated and a Presidential Election.

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

118th United States Congress

In Session from January 3rd, 2023 to January 3rd, 2025

United States Senate

Leadership

President of the Senate: Beto O'Rourke (D-TX)

President Pro Tempore: Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

President Pro Tempore emeritus: Dianne Feinstein (D-CA)

Majority Leader: Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

Minority Leader: Chuck Schumer (D-NY)

Majority Whip: John Thune (R-SD)

Minority Whip: Ron Wyden (D-OR)

United States House of Representatives

Leadership

Speaker: Kevin McCarthy (R-CA)

Majority Leader: Steve Scalise (R-LA)

Minority Leader: Cheri Bustos (D-IL) - Tim Ryan lost re-election.

Majority Whip: Jim Jordan (R-OH)

Minority Whip: Jim Clyburn (D-SC)

[alancia]

Great info boxes
But some of these results make no sense

Thanks! Tgese infoboxes were made by a lot of sweat, blood and tears lol

What results make no sense to you, if I may ask? I can solve your doubts.

[alancia]

Great info boxes
But some of these results make no sense

Thanks! Tgese infoboxes were made by a lot of sweat, blood and tears lol

What results make no sense to you, if I may ask? I can solve your doubts.

Well for a while now some of them were puzzling, like Amy losing MN. Like I know Ojeda did very well, but it's Minnesota and she's Amy Klobuchar. She won by 30 just now RL. Second NY would not elect a Republican governor even with a Cynthia Nixon green party bid.

I can Stefanowski land sliding Lamont (but Lamont is a one term pledger I think), but I think want an explanation as to how Trump lost bu the GOP took back suburban seats and the house in 2020.

Well I just put it as Ojeda doing very well in MN (Pompeo wins by 1 point or less IIRC), but I just wanted to create suspense for the final results if you pardon me lol. What you said is true though, and Klobuchar would probably have won MN if this was real life.

As for the NY results, its due to three factors - national atmosphere friendly to the GOP, depressed turnout for Cuomo but slightly higher for Nixon (40%, 10 points worse that in 2018 but better that 2014 that had 33%)

The GOP revival in suburban seats in 2020 is due to Pompeo being slightly more of a fit at the top of the ticket, feelings of lawlessness with the riots and such, plus a minor backlash against the Pelosi government. However, consensus in the TL is that this is a temporary return to the previous mean, lasting until the next Republican president.

[alancia]

I was just informed that Virginia doesnt re-elect its governors. I'll correct this once I wake up from my morning nap but the results stand - the Democratic candidate wins.

Gov. Justin Fairfax plz

I'd prefer Danica Roem but I can live with Governor Fairfax too.

Corrected Virginia results

Turnout is out due to the joint Senate and Gov. elections, and Fairfax wins with a similar strategy to Northam's 'win' lol.

Oof

[alancia]

I was just informed that Virginia doesnt re-elect its governors. I'll correct this once I wake up from my morning nap but the results stand - the Democratic candidate wins.

Gov. Justin Fairfax plz

I'd prefer Danica Roem but I can live with Governor Fairfax too.

Corrected Virginia results

Turnout is out due to the joint Senate and Gov. elections, and Fairfax wins with a similar strategy to Northam's 'win' lol.

Oof

Roem now?

Pretty much yeah. Replace Fairfax with any Democrat of your liking. Could be Herring if he plays his apology.

[alancia]

Calm

"It is time to send the message that we need to return calm to America. We need to send the message that we too are tired of grandstanding, gridlock and obstruction. That government in chaos is not government." - President Klobuchar, State of the Union speech, January 2023

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

Protests became a signature of the year. (Los Angeles Grand March, August 2023)

Following the inauguration of the new Congress, with its expanded Republican majorities, the outlook for the year seemed somewhat uncertain. Although almost all elected Congressmen and women; governors and senators pledged to not engage in extreme behavior, the truth was that many of the ills that plagued American politics since 2018 (or before, going back to even 1994), were still there. A government shutdown was narrowly avoided in early 2023, encouraged by Senators Palin and Pruitt, but ultimately rejected by the Senate and House.

In her second official State of the Union speech, President Klobuchar struck a conciliatory tone while still sticking to the principles that elected her in 2020. Long known for her pragmatism in the Senate, Klobuchar hoped to continue the legislative work that she was able to achieve in her first two years, even with a less favorable Senate.

The new year would find President Klobuchar focusing on several high profile international meetings and visits, including China, several European countries, Israel, Russia, Brazil and India. These actions were made, once again, with the intent of revitalizing the standing of the United States with the rest of the world, damaged after the 2019-2020 crisis.

Some of these meetings were expected to be tense, especially the Russia one. Following the revelations in 2019 that yes, Russia did really interfere in the 2016 election, relations between Russia and the United States took an even more negative turn, with new sanctions placed upon the country in 2021. The meeting with President Putin was described as 'business-like', with some of the topics discussed being the Ukraine situation, and the Syria aftermath.

The Brazilian visit was also expected to be somewhat tense, due to the leanings of Brazilian President Bolsonaro. Nevertheless, the visit was described as 'warm', and the focus of the event was Brazilian-American relations and trade, and the Venezuela situation with Nicolas Maduro. The China meeting over trade was also considered a good result for the President.

In May of 2023, Secretary of State Markey announced he would retire from his position to focus on his personal life. This opened up several contenders for the high profile position, with President Klobuchar finally settling on Susan Rice, the Homeland Security Secretary, for the position. Despite questions over her involvement in the Benghazi attacks eleven years ago, Rice was confirmed by the Senate in a 50-50 vote, with Vice-President O'Rourke breaking the tie. Rice's old position was filled by Avril Haines, the former Deputy National Security advisor under Obama.

Another retirement in the Klobuchar administration in 2023 was Blanche Lincoln, the secretary of Health and Human Services, who announced she was vacating her position to focus on the private sector. She was replaced by Gina Raimondo, the former Rhode Island Governor, in a 61-41 vote in the Senate.

On the domestic front, economic growth and recovery remained more or less at the same pace it had been since late 2020: slowly. It was still volatile, with a few market shocks through the year, notably in October, when a flare up of tensions in Asia spread uncertainty through the world. Unemployment averaged 8.7% through the year, and to the concerns of many wealth inequality worsened. Klobuchar averaged an approval rating of 44% through the year, with 52% in dissaproval.

Partially due to this, and also complemented by the slow pace in Washington and sense of dissapointment in the Klobuchar administration - limited by the Republican Congress and now retreating  from major policy goals and into consolidating what was gained in the previous years - a new wave of protests similar to those of late 2019 occurred through the US. Few would turn violent, in difference to the previously mentioned ones, but they were similar in size (though in general smaller). Notable ones include the Los Angeles Grand March in August - which combined teacher strikes and grassroot progressive concerns - and the New York March in September.

Though they had no official leader, most of the media of the era gave the leadership of these movements to Richard Ojeda, the former West Virginia State Senator and third party candidate in 2020; and for California his running mate Anthony Davis was also mentioned. Ojeda had become a voice in some networks for the still remaining parts of the 'dissatisfied' movement of 2019 and 2020, and spoke his concerns about the Klobuchar administration. Still, he didn't consider himself a leader of these protests, but he recognized himself a voice in influencing them.

Election-wise, the three major events in the country were the off-year elections in the states of Mississippi, Louisiana and Kentucky. In the first two states, incumbent Governors Reeves and Abraham (both Republicans) ran for re-election, while in the Bluegrass State Governor Bevin was term-limited; with former Lieutenant Governor Jenean Hampton winning the Republican primary.

In Mississippi, Reeves went against State Representative Chuck Middleton, and the campaign focused mainly on the issue of rural development for the Democrat, while Reeves campaigned on the national atmosphere. The Governor led on most polls taken through the election season, and defeated Middleton by a margin of around fifteen points.

Mississippi Gubernatorial Election, 2023

Governor Tate Reeves (R): 56.9% ✓

State Representative Chuck Middleton (D): 41.4%

Others: 1.7%

In Kentucky, a similar situation unfolded. Governor Bevin, a Republican, was term-limited, and Democrats viewed the state as a possible pickup opportunity if they invested in it, as the Governor remained relatively unpopular. To go against Hampton, former Elliott County Attorney and State Senator Patrick Trent won the Democratic primary. Trent ran an energetic campaign through the election season, and the race was close through the entire reason. In the end, Trent was defeated by Hampton by a one point margin.

Kentucky Gubernatorial Election, 2023

Fmr. Lieutenant Governor Jenean Hampton (R): 49.1% ✓

State Senator Patrick Trent (D): 47.8%

Others: 3.1%

In Louisiana, the Pelican State, Governor Abraham (Who had defeated Bel Edwards in the murky and troubled 2019 Election four years earlier) faced two main opponents in the nonpartisan primary: Former Mayor and 2022 Senate candidate Mitch Landrieu, and State Senator Eric LaFleur. While most expected Landrieu to be Abraham's opponent in the runoff, LaFleur emerged with an upset victory against the New Orleans Mayor.

Louisiana Gubernatorial Election, 2023 (Nonpartisan Primary)

Governor Ralph Abraham (R): 45.2% ✓

State Senator Eric LaFleur (D): 23.5% ✓

Former Mayor Mitch Landrieu (D): 23.2%

Others: 8.1%

In the runoff, Abraham led LaFleur through the season, and was helped after a succesful effort in the recovery against Hurricane Cindy in September. On election day, he won by around eleven points against LaFleur.

Louisiana Gubernatorial Election, 2023 (Runoff)

Governor Ralph Abraham (R): 55.4% ✓

State Senator Eric LaFleur (D): 44.6%

The GOP sweep in the off-year elections was considered a good sign for 2024. As the year 2023 closed, next year's election rapidly became the central point of American politics, and several Republicans had already announced their campaigns for the GOP primary.

Governor Tate Reeves (R-MS), a day after his succesful re-election, November 2023.

[alancia]

What I am most curious on if Jimmy Carter is going to see the esteemed 100 year old record in this timeline

We will see!

[alancia]

What I am most curious on if Jimmy Carter is going to see the esteemed 100 year old record in this timeline

We will see!

Regardless, he beat the longest lived record by a landslide, and in reality could probably keep it forever

Yup.

[alancia]

Everyone is Here

"Amy Klobuchar has been a career politician that let America down, and its time we held her accountable. We need a candidate that achieves peace for future American generations in the future and beyond. That's why I'm announcing my candidacy for President of the United States! " - Sen. James (R-MI), campaign announcement speech, August 2023.

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

Senator Sarah Palin with supporters after her campaign launch rally, June 2023

As mentioned before, by the end of 2023 several Republican politicians had already declared their candidacies for the 2024 election. Similar to the beginning of the 2020 Democratic primaries, there were several major figures running, with some 'minor' one in the race as well.

The first politician to enter the race was Senator Tom Cotton, of Arkansas, who had sought the Republican nomination in 2020 after Pence's resignation and until Pompeo became President. The former President, on the other hand, confirmed that he would not run in 2024 in a April interview. Cotton centered on a similar strategy to his 2020 run, mixing Trumpism with a vision to return the United States to its 'rightful' place in the world stage.

He was followed by Larry Hogan, the former Governor of Maryland and 2022 Senate Candidate. Hogan portrayed himself as a more moderate and friendler Republican, able to appeal to both conservatives and everyone else. Not wanting to be outdone in the moderate field, former Ohio Governor John Kasich also announced his campaign in late April, presenting a vision for a 'Republican Renovation' of the United States, with most of the backing he had in his 2020 primary run, in where he was the frontrunner with Tom Cotton.

Kasich was followed by Marco Rubio, the former Senator from Florida and Secretary of State under the Pompeo Administration. Rubio, in his announcement speech, focused mostly on restoring American prestige abroad, and a vision of American exceptionalism. Similar to Tom Cotton in this regard, he nevertheless tried to establish his own platform on other issues, like immigration.

Pushed by the decision of their fellow Floridan to run, the next candidates to jump in would be Rick Scott, the Florida Senator, and Ron DeSantis, the Governor of the Sunshine State. Scott campaigned as a businessman and experienced leader who would bring America out of her 'bad luck' and into the future; while DeSantis focused on his relatively moderate gubernatorial record and accomplishments and his military service, while also playing some Trumpite elements into his campaign.

This was followed by Ted Cruz in early June, as the Texas Senator had led most polls taken through the last months. Cruz focused his campaign on 'moral' issues, and as the conservative candidate to restore honor and dignity to the White House and Washington.

June 16, 2023 would open with news that many in the Republican establishment feared, as Alaska Senator Sarah Palin launched her campaign with a rally in Anchorage, with campaign themes similar to those of Tom Cotton; with the always fiery, many times controversial style that Palin liked to use. This was quickly followed by Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, who hoped to bring a libertarian ethos to the Republican Party.

Those were more or less the major candidates, but there were also other 'underdog' politicians that hoped to rise out and become the Republican nominee. Chiefly, these included Michigan Senator John James, a rising star who embodied 'anti-politics' in his speeches; Georgia Governor Brian Kemp, controversial and with a politically incorrect, 'tell it like it is' attitude; New Hampshire Senator Kelly Ayotte, who hoped to complete her political comeback in style by becoming President; and finally Greg Gianforte, the Montana Representative who talked tough about journalists and media for their 'Anti-Republican' ideas, promising stricter control if he was President.

With so many candidates running, the RNC hoped that the primary debates would work so that a clear frontrunner would emerge. In 2023 there were a total of five debates between the contenders. However, the only major effect they would have would be the several poor perfomances by Tom Cotton (including a gaffe on military intervention), which would result on the Arkansas Senator suspending his campaign on early December after a catasthropic fall in the polls.  

The other candidates remained in the race to some degree or another, with polls and internals each showing different situations in the race. Former President Pompeo had endorsed Marco Rubio in September, which boosted his campaign, but the endorsement of Donald Trump was more coveted for most candidates; as the former President said that he would 'endorse a candidate in probably January or February maybe, there's a lot of stuff that can happen'.

In the end, the race was wide open, and the first primaries and caucuses would be crucial.

Average Polling of National Republicans, January 1st 2024.

Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL): 12.22 %

Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX): 11.89 %

Senator Rand Paul (R-KY): 11.50 %

Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL): 10.72 %

Senator Sarah Palin (R-AK): 10.29 %

Fmr. Governor John Kasich (R-OH): 9.89 %

Senator John James (R-MI): 8.01 %

Senator Rick Scott (R-FL): 5.00 %

Fmr. Governor Larry Hogan (R-MD): 4.23 %

Governor Brian Kemp (R-GA): 3.88 %

Senator Kelly Ayotte (R-NH): 3.36 %

Representative Greg Gianforte (R-MT): 1.73 %

Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR): 0.00%

Other / Undecided: 7.28 %

Average Polling of Iowa Republicans, January 1st 2024.

Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX): 14.02 %

Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL): 12.52 %

Senator Rand Paul (R-KY): 12.11 %

Senator Sarah Palin (R-AK): 11.09 %

Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL): 10.82 %

Fmr. Governor John Kasich (R-OH): 9.55 %

Senator John James (R-MI): 9.23 %

Governor Brian Kemp (R-GA): 4.55 %

Fmr. Governor Larry Hogan (R-MD): 3.51 %

Senator Rick Scott (R-FL): 3.12 %

Representative Greg Gianforte (R-MT): 1.16 %

Senator Kelly Ayotte (R-NH): 1.08 %

Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR): 0.00%

Other / Undecided: 7.06 %

             

All the Republican candidates, by order of announcement

[alancia]

Forgot Scott in the polls, now added him.

[alancia]

Klobuchar ! ... ?

"Klobuchar does not work for us. That's why I'm launching this campaign against her. We need to make clear that a bold, progressive vision is needed to win next year." - Anthony Davis, campaign speech, December 2023

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

President Klobuchar visiting Waterloo, Iowa, January 2024

Even while President Klobuchar was popular with a great majority of Democrats (Polls showed that over 85% of Democrats and leaners approved of the President's job perfomance), many expected a challenger to emerge against Klobuchar, probably from the left. In the lead up to the 2024 Democratic Primaries, several minor 'dissatisfied' activists declared their intention to run against the incumbent President next year, even if it was symbolic.

Tulsi Gabbard, a Representative from Hawaii who was viewed as the most 'mainstream' challenger to the President, declined to run and instead endorsed Klobuchar. Other candidates, like former Governor Whitmer of Michigan also declined to run against the President.

This left only the minor activists and perennial candidates in the Democratic field by September of 2023. However, the outbreak of protests in mid 2023 led to Anthony Davis, the running mate of Richard Ojeda in the 2020 election, to declare his candidacy for President as a Democrat. Davis was by far the most well known 'dissatisfied' activist, and remained strong amongst the grassroots. A debate between these candidates was held - Klobuchar not participating - in which he came out strong.

Thus, he emerged as the best polling candidate against Klobuchar in the 2024 Democratic Primaries, relatively of course, as the incumbent President was far ahead in polls. By his run, Davis promised to send the administration a message for next year; they have to keep the bold spirit that elected them in 2020 and carried them through the first two years alive, or else they would be defeated.

Average Polling of National Democrats, January 1st 2024.

President Amy Klobuchar (D-MN): 78.86%

Activist Anthony Davis (D-CA): 9.22%

Other / Undecided: 11.92%

Average Polling of Iowa Democrats, January 1st 2024.

President Amy Klobuchar (D-MN): 90.36%

Activist Anthony Davis (D-CA): 4.01%

Other / Undecided: 5.63%

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2024 Iowa Results

"Thank y'all for this victory. We have shown with this perfomance that restoring dignity and morality to Washington is possible." - Senator Ted Cruz, Iowa victory speech (excerpt), January 2024

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Marco Rubio campaigning in Burlington, Iowa, January 2024

Final Results

Republicans:

Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX): 15.33 % ✓

Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL): 13.01 %

Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL): 12.85 %

Senator Rand Paul (R-KY): 11.01 %

Senator Sarah Palin (R-AK): 10.55 %

Senator John James (R-MI): 9.82 %

Fmr. Governor John Kasich (R-OH): 7.53 %

Governor Brian Kemp (R-GA): 6.32 %

Fmr. Governor Larry Hogan (R-MD): 5.99 %

Senator Rick Scott (R-FL): 4.52 %

Representative Greg Gianforte (R-MT): 1.39 %

Senator Kelly Ayotte (R-NH): 1.24 %

Other: 0.44 %

Democrats:

President Amy Klobuchar (D-MN): 94.02% ✓

Activist Anthony Davis (D-CA): 5.78%

Other: 0.20%

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Iowa is Cruz Country

Senator Cruz entering the stage to give his victory speech

The more things change, the more they stay the same. At least, that's what it seemed for the Iowa Republican Caucuses, as Senator Ted Cruz won the contest in the Hawkeye State and Marco Rubio placed in the top three, as happened eight years ago in 2016. However, there were some differences, as Cruz gained a lower share of the vote due to the divided Republican field. Ron DeSantis placed third, in what was considered a good finish for the Florida Governor.

The biggest loser of the night was John Kasich, who dropped several points from his polling to finish 7th and with 7% of the vote, placing below Michigan Senator John James. Cruz's victory is explained by his appeal in the rural conservative state - which is the base of the Iowa Republican Party. The Texas Senator pledged to continue fighting in all states, although New Hampshire (The next primary) polling gives favorite daughter Ayotte a clear advantage.

Klobuchar's Easy Victory

President Klobuchar in Des Moines, Iowa

President Klobuchar easily cruised to a victory in the Iowa Caucuses, as the President gathered almost 95% of the vote, against around 5% for Anthony Davis. In a short speech in the Polk County Democratic Headquarters following her win, Klobuchar thanked the Iowans who voted for her, saying that 'It makes me thankful to receive your confidence. Iowa is a great state that reminds me of Minnesota. Thank you all'. Davis, meanwhile, struck a defiant tone and stated that he was focusing in states where he could more easily appeal to, such as South Carolina or California.

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2024 New Hampshire Results

"Kelly has a proven record of working for New Hampshire. I'm confident that as President she will have the same spirit of working for all Americans. That's why I'm endorsed her for President. " - Governor Chris Sununu (R-NH), speech, February 2024

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Ted Cruz campaigning in New Hampshire, February 2024

Final Results

Republicans:

Senator Kelly Ayotte (R-NH): 19.42 % ✓

Senator Rand Paul (R-KY): 13.72 %

Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL): 13.09 %

Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL): 12.42 %

Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX): 9.02 %

Fmr. Governor John Kasich (R-OH): 8.45 %

Senator John James (R-MI): 7.14 %

Senator Sarah Palin (R-AK): 6.55 %

Fmr. Governor Larry Hogan (R-MD): 4.21 %

Senator Rick Scott (R-FL): 3.00 %

Governor Brian Kemp (R-GA):  1.34%

Representative Greg Gianforte (R-MT): 1.05 %

Other: 0.59 %

Democrats:

President Amy Klobuchar (D-MN): 94.13% ✓

Activist Anthony Davis (D-CA): 5.10%

Other: 0.77%

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Ayotte City

Senator Ayotte in her home state

As expected, Kelly Ayotte won her home state by a more than decent margin (Compared to polling in most other Republican Primary) states, although many anticipated a bigger margin, especially considering Governor Sununu's endorsement of the New Hampshire Senator. Nevertheless, this was a big boost for the Ayotte campaign, who finished last in Iowa.

2nd place went for Rand Paul, the Kentucky Senator, who performed strongly in the New England state, with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis finishing 3rd, just a few decimals above his fellow Floridan, Senator Marco Rubio.

The biggest losers were John Kasich (Once again) and Larry Hogan. Kasich expected a strong perfomance in the moderate northeastern region, but fell short once again, finishing even below the conservative Ted Cruz. Polls and interviews taken before and through the primary season to Republican voters showed that the former Ohio Governor was viewed as 'finished' and an 'old asset'. Larry Hogan suspended his campaign after his also disappointing result, and endorsed Kasich.

Senator Rick Scott also suspended his campaign after New Hampshire, but refused to endorse a candidate until the General Election. Scott, recognizing that he could not compete against Rubio and DeSantis, decided to focus on his senatorial re-election campaign.

Klobuchar Once Again

Vice-President O'Rourke in a New Hampshire town hall

President Klobuchar once again won easily in the New Hampshire Democratic primaries, even improving her perfomance from the Iowa caucuses. This is explained by the fact that apart from Klobuchar being the incumbent President, Anthony Davis didn't focus on the Granite State, instead going south and west to South Carolina and Nevada.

2024 Election: Tossup? Tilt R?

February 2024 state rankings ('Generic' R v. Klobuchar)

Safe // Likely // Leaning // Tossup // Leaning // Likely // Safe

Polling Averages

Ayotte: 43 %
Klobuchar: 40 %
'Other': 7 %
Undecided: 10 %

Paul: 44 %
Klobuchar: 42 %
'Other': 5 %
Undecided: 9 %

James: 40 %
Klobuchar: 35 %
'Other': 7 %
Undecided: 18 %

DeSantis: 40 %
Klobuchar: 39 %
'Other': 8 %
Undecided: 13 %

Cruz: 44 %
Klobuchar: 44 %
'Other': 6 %
Undecided: 6 %

Klobuchar: 42 %
Rubio: 41 %
'Other': 9 %
Undecided: 8 %

Klobuchar: 42 %
Kasich: 38 %
'Other': 11 %
Undecided: 9 %

Klobuchar: 43 %
Kemp: 37 %
'Other': 7 %
Undecided: 13 %

Klobuchar: 43 %
Gianforte: 34 %
'Other': 6 %
Undecided: 17 %

Klobuchar: 48 %
Palin: 44 %
'Other': 4 %
Undecided: 2 %

Although it was still early, General Election polling between the various Republican candidates and President Klobuchar had already been released. These showed mixed results, with Klobuchar ahead in some contests and behind in other, although there was a big percentage of undecideds (Except in the Palin matchup, which showed special polarization). Overall, President Klobuchar trailed a Generic Republican 43-39 in polling, which may reverse or not as the 2024 Election heats up in the coming months.

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What happened to this TL?

Writers block. Sad. This will probably continue, though... someday.