It'll be back to 2004 without Obama on the ballot. Kerry got 89%, so should Hillary.
Gore got 90% in 2000, so I don't see why Hillary wouldn't either
(by that logic). Exit polls from 2010 midterms showed Democrat candidates getting
(overall) 91% of the black vote, and 90% in 2014. So it is a bit silly to think Hillary, beloved by the African American community, couldn't reach 91%. After all, Republicans have done nothing for African Americans, have not reached out to them and have largely spent the last 7.5 years indirectly insulting them via numerous proxies
(viciously attacking and obstructing Obama, AllLivesMatter, Trump rally beatings, voter suppression, and so on). In light of this, I think it's a bit foolish to say that Obama's departure will reset everything, because it won't.
Also, why does everyone assume that the black vote is going to reset to 2004-levels just because Obama isn't on the ballot? Black turnout, for instance, had not only been trending upwards for decades prior to Obama, but also remained high even in the past 2 midterms
("high" relative to what it used to be in prior midterms), so there is currently more evidence than not that changes to black voting patterns are
not temporary but rather here to stay.
In regards to the topic, I'll say between 90% - 92%, depending on who the GOP nominee is. I would not be surprised if it went higher against Trump.
