Irish Elections and Referendums, 2015

[ObserverIE]

Recent announcements from the government have set some time in May 2015 for at least two referendums, which will concern:

1. Allowing and legalizing Gay Marriage

Should pass, though not by the margins currently forecast by opinion polls. Margins on referendums to do with family/bedroom issues always narrow during the course of a campaign, through a mixture of FUD being sown by the conservative side and a version of the Bradley Effect. The Yes campaign will also have to overcome having a toxic Labour Party positioning itself at its front and centre (Ivana Bacik, Aodhán Ó Riordáin, etc.) and the fact that - unlike in the 80s and 90s referendums - the Yes campaign will be amply supplied with its own set of loons and headbangers in the guise of Social Justice Warriors, many of whom will insert themselves into the limelight *cough*Úna Mullally*cough*. Over 55% Yes would be a good result for the Yes campaign.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This one is so off the wall and obviously irrelevant that I'm assuming it's only being held to soak up the protest vote from the SSM referendum. Will be defeated and handily so.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Not a hope of any of these being held.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[ObserverIE]

Gay marriage should pass. It is leading polls by about 40%, which ought to mean it is 50/50 to pass. But it seems to be more a salient issue than other referendum topics like all that political reform palaver of 2011-13, which suggests to me that more people have decided opinions about this question, much as the European referendum polling has been more accurate in recent years as European questions became more frequent, topical and relevant. Ireland's frame of reference on politics is the UK and the USA, where this question has been debated for the last ten years.

While I would like to think that our attitudes on the issue are more socially liberal than in the UK, the US, France or even Finland, I am just about old enough to have sat through two divorce referendums where sizeable Yes leads reversed themselves or almost evaporated. I will believe a 40% Yes margin when I see it happening.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I wasn't aware that I'd made that assertion.

Mullally came to mind because of her whingeing the other week in her Irish Times column about being silenced by being asked to appear on radio with people whom she doesn't agree with.

Bacik and Ó Riordáin are the two most prominent Labour SJWs, and I don't think people will have much patience for either Labour or SJWs in the current climate. In terms of sheer popular dislike, I imagine Pat Rabbitte or Phil Hogan comfortably outrank either.

[ObserverIE]

Same-sex marriage and presidential age referendums, along with the Carlow-Kilkenny by-election, set for May 22nd (a Friday), according to an RTÉ interview with Forrest Gump Enda Kenny last night.

Candidates selected so far in Carlow-Kilkenny:

Bobby Aylward (FF): a one-term TD until the 2011 deluge based in southern Kilkenny and the brother of another TD since elected to the European Parliament in 2009.

William Quinn (Lab): one of the fast-dwindling band of Labour county councillors based in County Carlow; may have the advantage (at least for the moment) of being the only Carlow-based candidate.

Kathleen Funchion (SF): general election candidate for the last two elections based in Kilkenny city.

[ObserverIE]

74% in favour of gay marriage in ultimo March poll:

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/poll-shows-same-sex-marriage-referendum-could-be-close-1.2154967

Parties Yes/No:

Labour: 80/15 
Independents and small parties 71/20
Sinn Féin: 70/17
Fine Gael 59/27
Fianna Fáil 54/34

Reduce the age for presidential candidates:

62% No,
29% Yes
9% Dunno/Abstain

Only 18-24 olds in favour. Opposition lowest in Connacht and Ulster and highest in Dublin, which is a bit surprising.

Detailed breakdown here.

[ObserverIE]

Any reason why Munster seems to be somewhat above average in same sex marriage support ?

You're dealing with sample sizes of app. 250 so differences of a few percentage points are not going to be meaningful.

[ObserverIE]

AAA is the front organisation of the Socialist Party (Trotskyite sect - CWI I think).

[ObserverIE]

Thirteen-candidate debate on TV3 last night.

What could go wrong?

[ObserverIE]

Ipsos/MRBI poll in today's Irish Times on the same-sex marriage referendum (changes since last poll in March):

Yes 58 (-7)
No 25 (+2)
Don't Know 12 (+3)
Won't Vote 5 (+2)

Referendum on potential President Dougie Howser going down in flames as expected.

Other polls (and trends):

[ObserverIE]

Reports so far of high turnout for this time of day in Dublin, which would bode well for Yes.

[ObserverIE]

Can't believe No has had the momentum. My God.

This SHOULD still hold though, right? Right?

Yes. As I said on the other thread, there should be enough goodwill and sense of "live and let live" among the general population to carry it through by at least 53-54%.

Announcements of support by Mary McAleese (former President and publicly Catholic) and Daniel O'Donnell (a very big Country and Irish star - think dansband but with more twangy guitars) will have helped to allay the effect of what otherwise tended to be a Dublin 4-talking-unto-Dublin 4 Yes campaign.

The one worry I have about a big Yes vote is that it may encourage the Dawkins fanboy/campus Left/Trotskyite fringes of the Yes side to demand more culture wars on issues where they are more likely to lose, albeit not before months of screeching on both sides.

[ObserverIE]

Can't believe No has had the momentum. My God.

This SHOULD still hold though, right? Right?

Yes. As I said on the other thread, there should be enough goodwill and sense of "live and let live" among the general population to carry it through by at least 53-54%.

Announcements of support by Mary McAleese (former President and publicly Catholic) and Daniel O'Donnell (a very big Country and Irish star - think dansband but with more twangy guitars) will have helped to allay the effect of what otherwise tended to be a Dublin 4-talking-unto-Dublin 4 Yes campaign.

The one worry I have about a big Yes vote is that it may encourage the Dawkins fanboy/campus Left/Trotskyite fringes of the Yes side to demand more culture wars on issues where they are more likely to lose, albeit not before months of screeching on both sides.

Speaking of which, have you heard the official reason Atheist Ireland came out for a 'No' vote in the Presidential Age referendum?

Because the referendum would not abolish the oath in which the President has to swear unto God. Seriously, yes.

I had heard that.

I'm only surprised that Michael Nugent (Arch-Community Songster of Atheist Ireland to Dawkins' Pope) could take enough time out from his Twitterspat with P.Z. Myers to issue a fatwa.

35% turnout in my very rural north Longford polling station at 7pm. 51% at 9.30.

[ObserverIE]

Looking like a national figure of 60/40 or so. The No campaign has already conceded on RTÉ Radio.

Twitter hashtags are #marref and #marref2015.

[ObserverIE]

Can't believe No has had the momentum. My God.

This SHOULD still hold though, right? Right?

Yes. As I said on the other thread, there should be enough goodwill and sense of "live and let live" among the general population to carry it through by at least 53-54%.

Announcements of support by Mary McAleese (former President and publicly Catholic) and Daniel O'Donnell (a very big Country and Irish star - think dansband but with more twangy guitars) will have helped to allay the effect of what otherwise tended to be a Dublin 4-talking-unto-Dublin 4 Yes campaign.

The one worry I have about a big Yes vote is that it may encourage the Dawkins fanboy/campus Left/Trotskyite fringes of the Yes side to demand more culture wars on issues where they are more likely to lose, albeit not before months of screeching on both sides.

This sounds horrific. How come you're familiar with the term dansband?

I come from a part of the country which is Country and Irish Central. It developed out of the showband scene of the 1960s and 1970s, which would be even closer to dansband, I think. Came across the Scandinavian version by accident.

[ObserverIE]

On the other elections - it looks like reducing the President's age will be defeated and the Carlow-Kilkenny by-election is legitimately close, with a surprisingly good showing for the Labour Party candidate.

The only tallies so far in Carlow-Kilkenny have come from Carlow. The Labour candidate is the only one of the main candidates from Carlow (the other Carlow-based candidates are a Trot and a crypto-Nazi) and still seems to be in fifth place. I wouldn't extrapolate that showing to Kilkenny.

[ObserverIE]

Looking like a national figure of 60/40 or so. The No campaign has already conceded on RTÉ Radio.

Twitter hashtags are #marref and #marref2015.

In such a case, would No win most rural areas? Only some? I mean, in term of counties/counting areas.

From tallies it is possible that YES will win all 43 constituencies - even the two Donegal ones are showing YES leads.

Roscommon-South Leitrim seems to be heading for a NO, and there will be a large set of rural areas where YES is likely to be in the 50s.

For comparison, this is the result from the 1995 divorce referendum, which YES won nationally by 50.2:



A couple of live box-by-box tallies:

Galway West
Kerry North - West Limerick
Longford-Westmeath

[ObserverIE]

Dublin North West
Yes: 20,919 (70.4) No: 8,814 (29.6)
Turnout: 59.5

[ObserverIE]

Final tally from Carlow-Kilkenny

FF 28.0
FG 21.1
SF 16.1
Renua 9.4
Lab 6.5
GP 5.4
Ind Gardiner 4.4
SWP t/a PBP 3.4
SP t/a AAA 3.2
Others 2.6

[ObserverIE]

I just want to add that Aodhan O Riordan is why politicians shouldn't use twitter.

Are we talking fyck yeah?

[ObserverIE]

Nice.

Looks like 2/3 YES when all is counted, right ?

A little less than that, I suspect - 64%? Dublin will push the average up, Connacht, Ulster, the midlands and rural Munster will push it back down a bit.

[ObserverIE]

please forgive the off track question, but I wonder if this landslide result might encourage social liberals to seek legalization of abortion. Or even a partial legalization. Does anyone have any idea what the most recent polling shows on the issue?

Oh, the Twitterers had started on it already last night. The most recent polling shows majorities in favour in certain circumstances (rape, incest, fatal foetal abnormalities) but not in favour of abortion on demand/request. The Twitterers are not going to be satisfied with anything less than no restrictions and no time limits - the Canadian model.

It is, I think, a much more emotive issue in this country than gay marriage and one on which the same "live and let live" attitude is not going to exist (I suspect that gay marriage is actually the least contentious of the potential culture wars available, behind both abortion and attempts to impose laicité in education and the public sphere more generally). A majority on one issue is unlikely to easily translate into a majority on another.

[ObserverIE]

Yes, one thing the NO campaign really didn't understand is that Ireland is not America.

To be fair, Gully, I'm not sure that everyone on the "liberal" side entirely gets it either.

[ObserverIE]

Why are the areas around Northern Ireland more likely to vote against same-sex marriage?

Rural, older (partly due to emigration), more likely to be religiously observant (and Protestants in the border areas are not going to be any more liberal on gay marriage than Catholics are).

[ObserverIE]

Yes, one thing the NO campaign really didn't understand is that Ireland is not America.

To be fair, Gully, I'm not sure that everyone on the "liberal" side entirely gets it either.

Oh I agree with that. I was just responding to your post on abortion and laicité in education.

Thank god the campaign is over.

Amen.

I was always a definite Yes voter but I was doing it through gritted teeth at the end because I was absolutely sick of the attitude of both sides, particularly on social media.

[ObserverIE]

When exactly did Ireland cease to be the ultra-Catholic society we all seem to vaguely think it is?

It still is quite a Catholic society in terms of things such as religious affiliation, church attendance and cultural ambience - certainly by the standards of most of Europe.

But as I said earlier, gay marriage and gay rights are not anywhere near as contentious an issue in Irish society as abortion or secularism, on which issues median attitudes would still be very conservative by European and even American standards.

And on the other hand, in spite of a severe recession which has seen large numbers of young people having to emigrate - especially in rural areas - and very large-scale immigration in a short period of time (10-15% of the population are recent newcomers who have arrived in the space of around 15 years), anti-migrant sentiment has very little appeal. The candidate running on the issue yesterday in Carlow-Kilkenny got 930 votes out of 67,000.

[ObserverIE]

The story so far from Carlow-Kilkenny:

FF	18,572	18,713	18,845	19,223	19,480	19,898	20,950	22,826	26,529
FG	13,744	13,826	13,895	14,174	14,289	15,058	16,612	18,875	21,632
SF	10,806	11,006	11,501	11,974	13,113	13,879	14,632	16,437
Renua	6,365	6,530	6,736	7,225	7,678	8,532	9,269
Lab	4,673	4,803	4,853	4,954	5,252	5,775
GP	3,549	3,651	3,836	4,257	4,528
Ind Gardiner	2,792	3,016	3,226
SWP	2,377	2,644	3,256	3,640
SP	2,194	2,296
Identity	930
Ind Holohan	374
Ind Walsh	243
Ind Hourihane	215

FF actually slightly more transfer-friendly than FG here, which speaks volumes. They're able to recycle an undistinguished former TD, much to the discomfort of the sitting FF TD for the constituency, and much to the delight of the party leadership to whom the previously-mentioned TD has been a long-term pain in the ass.

FG had been fortunate in the last two by-elections they defended; they were running female relatives of TDs who had died tragically (suicide and motor neurone disease respectively), the FF candidate in Longford-Westmeath was a nepotistically-appointed dud, the two SF candidates were weak, and the independent vote in Longford-Westmeath was geographically splintered. This time, they were running a candidate to succeed a former government minister identified with an unpopular signature policy who was decamping to a very well-paid job in Brussels. The result was that they got walloped, albeit not as badly as their doormatsjunior coalition partners.

Solid performance from SF, making them likely to pick up the Labour seat here next time, and proving more transfer-friendly than FG even if they weren't able to overhaul them.

Good performance for #Lucinda, running an attractive (if opportunistic) candidate who had the notable point of being a gay candidate running for a party identified with social conservatism.

Appalling performance for Labour. They've spent the last four years focussed on social liberalism but flopped in a by-election held on the same day as a successful referendum on their signature issue.