More likely? Tester winning or Cruz losing?

[Schiff for Senate]

The way I see it, there's a non-negligible chance of Tester winning (40%, let's say), and quite a negligible chance of Cruz losing (10-15%). So the answer is pretty clear.

Cruz losing; even if the GOP makes some blunders there's no way MT-Sen isn't heavily nationalized, whereas TX is a state that could be reasonably close Presidentially, with a small but realistic chance of a an outright Biden victory.

The one thing that makes me question this is generally Dem spending tends to heavily favor incumbents, so perhaps if they underinvest in TX my opinion will change.

Not really. Maybe miniscule, at best. In terms of outcome, I just can't see it flipping this year. It could swing/trend a little to the left, of course, but an outright flip seems like quite the stretch. We'll have to wait till 2028, at the earliest, for Blexas.

[Schiff for Senate]

Both Senate Democrat candidates will overperform Biden, but 5-7 points is much more doable than 15+, I don't care how much "incumbency" and "brand" you have.

By that logic, 2018 would've seen Phil Bredesen or Beto O'Rourke win rather than Joe Manchin. Yet we all know what happened...

[Schiff for Senate]

The way I see it, there's a non-negligible chance of Tester winning (40%, let's say), and quite a negligible chance of Cruz losing (10-15%). So the answer is pretty clear.

Cruz losing; even if the GOP makes some blunders there's no way MT-Sen isn't heavily nationalized, whereas TX is a state that could be reasonably close Presidentially, with a small but realistic chance of a an outright Biden victory.

The one thing that makes me question this is generally Dem spending tends to heavily favor incumbents, so perhaps if they underinvest in TX my opinion will change.

Not really. Maybe miniscule, at best. In terms of outcome, I just can't see it flipping this year. It could swing/trend a little to the left, of course, but an outright flip seems like quite the stretch. We'll have to wait till 2028, at the earliest, for Blexas.

Maybe it doesn't, but TX will almost certainly be way closer than MT Presidentially and I'd argue TX is favored to trend left relative to the nation just based on Demographic changes. Democrats definitely have the votes to win TX under the right circumstances right now, I'm just not sure if 2024 is the year they really make that investment.

Agreed, but that still does not mean an Allred win is likelier than a Tester win.