The absentee/early vote thread

[bilaps]

Sean Spicer just said on CNN that democrats "are running 50 000 early votes under threshold for what they need to have at this moment to win" and how it shows Hilary is bad candidate.

[bilaps]

Sean Spicer just said on CNN that democrats "are running 50 000 early votes under threshold for what they need to have at this moment to win" and how it shows Hilary is bad candidate.

How exactly did he come up with this figure?

Don't have an idea, posted because I thought someone might know something.

Oh, sorry I forgot to type in Iowa. Not intentional.

[bilaps]

Looks like Trump's ground game disaster is unfolding in North Carolina. The GOP needs to run of the margin in the absentee vote to win the state.

This really isn't true.

[bilaps]

This doesnt look well for the Democrats

But, the polls have been relatively rosy for Democrats in NC and I'd like to think that their screens captured some of these issues, so for now I'd say whatever is happening in the early vote doesn't doom her chances here at all.

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/NCpolls/NC161025/NBC%20News_WSJ_Marist%20Poll_North%20Carolina_Tables%20of%20Likely%20Voters_October%2030,%202016.pdf#page=3
In Marist's poll where they have her up 6, they have Blacks at 22% of voters, which is where they are in early voting... The Black early vote should be much higher to end up at 22%.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/New_York_Times_Siena_NC_Oct_25th.pdf
Upshot has it at 20%, and that could be too high, no?

It was 30% in 2012 i think when it ended up at 22 according to exits. So if now is 22% and it is 22.23% with today data, then it would sink well below 20% after election day voting.

Early vote really doesn't look god for Dems in NC but it looks bad for Trump in NV.

[bilaps]

This doesnt look well for the Democrats

But, the polls have been relatively rosy for Democrats in NC and I'd like to think that their screens captured some of these issues, so for now I'd say whatever is happening in the early vote doesn't doom her chances here at all.

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/NCpolls/NC161025/NBC%20News_WSJ_Marist%20Poll_North%20Carolina_Tables%20of%20Likely%20Voters_October%2030,%202016.pdf#page=3
In Marist's poll where they have her up 6, they have Blacks at 22% of voters, which is where they are in early voting... The Black early vote should be much higher to end up at 22%.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/New_York_Times_Siena_NC_Oct_25th.pdf
Upshot has it at 20%, and that could be too high, no?

It was 30% in 2012 i think when it ended up at 22 according to exits. So if now is 22% and it is 22.23% with today data, then it would sink well below 20% after election day voting.

Early vote really doesn't look god for Dems in NC but it looks bad for Trump in NV.

No, it actually looks pretty good. Check out the earlier posts in this thread.

Well you can spin it but votes cast tell it's own story

[bilaps]

CO #earlyvote update: trick or treat for Reps:
Treat: Dem lead +3.6 points (was 3.9 on Fri)
Trick: 3,562 more Dems returned ballots

Wow, McDonald is a complete idiot. His post election tweet would be something like this. Trick or treat for republicans. Treat: Trump wins presidency. Trick: There were some votes cast for Clinton. I'm joking, but this tweet was so partisan.

[bilaps]

Clinton outperforming Obama with Latinos in week-by-week comparison of Latino prez vote 2012 v 2016. Charts shows gap (%Dem - %Rep)


Interesting

Was it Skill and Chance who predicted this? Whatever small loss there might be with the AA vote will be compensated to greater lengths by Hispanic votes.

LOL. You see that comparison but you are missing that is much easier for white turnout which is surpassing 2012 to compensate for hispanic turnout surge?

[bilaps]

The problem for Trump, of course, is that few if any polls show Trump doing anything other than way worse than Romney among whites.

yeah right. so he is down with whites, doesn't get any from aa and hispanics, hispanic turnout is up, and he is up 4 points in upshot based on what please tell me?

[bilaps]

Ok, this is why I called McDonald a hack yesterday.

Today updates from early voting

In NC Dems go from minus 3,4 to minus 3,1% vs 2012 levels
Reps go from 6,9% to 8,7% in the plus column

In FL 7008 more R submited votes

In NV from 7,9 D+ to 6,6 D+

In CO from 3,5 D+ to 2,6 D+

I will admit NV and Co still looks likely D even though Ralston is not someone who is objective so you could quote him. He wrote today about rural counties "until cows come home".

bbb but. Mcdonald constantly wrote that there is no evidence of Comey thing hurting D even though it was way too early for that assumption. And now he is soo quiet.

also i don't see why is Cohn so certain at this black vote turnout, it IS down 8% in early vote. if it just follows the trend on election day 4yrs ago, it will definetly be under 19%. am i missing something there?

[bilaps]

why hasn't their been more conversations about Michigan Democrats just decimating Michigan Republicans this year?? Am i missing something?

if trump is going to have any chance of beating hillary in MI, he will have a big number of those D especially men voting for him. so it isn't a big deal this.