How I think the CA GOP should rebuild

[OSR stands with Israel]

1. First completely distance yourselves from the national party

2. Focus on the local level first: so school boards, local DA, mayoral elections, city councils, county commissioners, and state legislature  and start to build up the bench 

3. For Gubernatorial elections run Kevin Falconer both in 2022 and 2026 in order to slowly increase the GOP numbers in statewide elections too but dont go all in one winning those. Just use those runs to help build up your ground game operations, moderinize the party, and create a new GOP image which should help in your goal for point two

4. At the local level having the gop come up with innovative conservative based solutions for issues such as housing, climate change , education , criminal justice reform etc

5. Once you do that the CA GOP should be ready to make a  real comeback in the 2030s

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

How is the CA GOP supposed to actively distance itself from the national party when it sends that party's House leader to Congress?

[Roll Roons]

1. First completely distance yourselves from the national party

2. Focus on the local level first: so school boards, local DA, mayoral elections, city councils, county commissioners, and state legislature  and start to build up the bench 

3. For Gubernatorial elections run Kevin Falconer both in 2022 and 2026 in order to slowly increase the GOP numbers in statewide elections too but dont go all in one winning those. Just use those runs to help build up your ground game operations, moderinize the party, and create a new GOP image which should help in your goal for point two

4. At the local level having the gop come up with innovative conservative based solutions for issues such as housing, climate change , education , criminal justice reform etc

5. Once you do that the CA GOP should be ready to make a  real comeback in the 2030s

But how do they do that? Even if Republicans somewhat recover in the suburbs post-Trump, the party's brand has become so toxic in most of the state.

[YE]

The priorities of the base makes #1 very hard at least until the base experiences a number of defeats nationally that results in declining polarization.

[OSR stands with Israel]

1. First completely distance yourselves from the national party

2. Focus on the local level first: so school boards, local DA, mayoral elections, city councils, county commissioners, and state legislature  and start to build up the bench 

3. For Gubernatorial elections run Kevin Falconer both in 2022 and 2026 in order to slowly increase the GOP numbers in statewide elections too but dont go all in one winning those. Just use those runs to help build up your ground game operations, moderinize the party, and create a new GOP image which should help in your goal for point two

4. At the local level having the gop come up with innovative conservative based solutions for issues such as housing, climate change , education , criminal justice reform etc

5. Once you do that the CA GOP should be ready to make a  real comeback in the 2030s

But how do they do that? Even if Republicans somewhat recover in the suburbs post-Trump, the party's brand has become so toxic in most of the state.

Well 2-5 is needed to detoxify the brand .


As for 1 what needs to happen is that you need to make it clear the CA GOP is for CA only and to do that you can actually completely separate out the CA GOP organization .

- One organization focuses solely on CA local and statewide races along with CA ballot measures and doesn't get involved in any national races including the ones for the house and senate

- The other focuses solely on electing more Republicans to congress


These two organizations need to be independent of each other as well

[Hope For A New Era]

How is the CA GOP supposed to actively distance itself from the national party when it sends that party's House leader to Congress?

I think the Democrats might be able to help them with that just move a few lines around...

[DrScholl]

1. Completely distancing from the national party is impossible. Besides, California Republicans have moved further right just like the national party and are quite extreme.

2. There are plenty of local offices controlled by Republicans, but extremism has been a problem there too. Some local Republican office holders have either switched to Independent or Democratic and some that have not switched just don't engage in local Republican circles. Local parties have been taken over by extremists and have few resources.

3. I'm not sure Faulconer would waste time running to not win an office as opposed to just retiring or taking a private sector job or state level appointment.

4. As conservative as the remaining Republicans are in the state there isn't going to be much innovation. They like doing things as they were done in the 60s, 70s and 80s.

5. The best chance the GOP has at a comeback in statewide office is if Democrats have too many candidates running and get locked out of the top two.

[OSR stands with Israel]

1. Completely distancing from the national party is impossible. Besides, California Republicans have moved further right just like the national party and are quite extreme.

2. There are plenty of local offices controlled by Republicans, but extremism has been a problem there too. Some local Republican office holders have either switched to Independent or Democratic and some that have not switched just don't engage in local Republican circles. Local parties have been taken over by extremists and have few resources.

3. I'm not sure Faulconer would waste time running to not win an office as opposed to just retiring or taking a private sector job or state level appointment.

4. As conservative as the remaining Republicans are in the state there isn't going to be much innovation. They like doing things as they were done in the 60s, 70s and 80s.

5. The best chance the GOP has at a comeback in statewide office is if Democrats have too many candidates running and get locked out of the top two.

Things can always change if you come up with a plan, the national GOP in 1936 were in worse shape(see below) but eventually came back though it took 16 years. Similarly, the CA GOP should come up with a 20 year plan


House Seats for National GOP after 1936: 88/435 = 20.23%
House Seats for CA GOP currently : 18/80 = 22.5%

Senate Seats for National GOP after 1936: 17/96 = 17.71%
Senate Seats for CA GOP currently: 11/40: 27.5%

National Popular vote for GOP  in 1936 Presidential Election : 36.5%
Statewise Popular vote for GOP  in 2018 CA Governor Election: 38.1%

[KaiserDave]

Sorry OSR, not gonna happen

[OSR stands with Israel]

Sorry OSR, not gonna happen

I mean by 2034-2042

[DrScholl]

1. Completely distancing from the national party is impossible. Besides, California Republicans have moved further right just like the national party and are quite extreme.

2. There are plenty of local offices controlled by Republicans, but extremism has been a problem there too. Some local Republican office holders have either switched to Independent or Democratic and some that have not switched just don't engage in local Republican circles. Local parties have been taken over by extremists and have few resources.

3. I'm not sure Faulconer would waste time running to not win an office as opposed to just retiring or taking a private sector job or state level appointment.

4. As conservative as the remaining Republicans are in the state there isn't going to be much innovation. They like doing things as they were done in the 60s, 70s and 80s.

5. The best chance the GOP has at a comeback in statewide office is if Democrats have too many candidates running and get locked out of the top two.

Things can always change if you come up with a plan, the national GOP in 1936 were in worse shape(see below) but eventually came back though it took 16 years. Similarly, the CA GOP should come up with a 20 year plan


House Seats for National GOP after 1936: 88/435 = 20.23%
House Seats for CA GOP currently : 18/80 = 22.5%

Senate Seats for National GOP after 1936: 17/96 = 17.71%
Senate Seats for CA GOP currently: 11/40: 27.5%

National Popular vote for GOP  in 1936 Presidential Election : 36.5%
Statewise Popular vote for GOP  in 2018 CA Governor Election: 38.1%

There are a lot of Republicans within what is left of the state party apparatus who think that the party does not have a problem and blames losing on voter fraud. There's not much desire for change. The minority leader of the state senate believes that the drought was caused by abortion and the last Assembly minority leader who is fairly mainstream is now an independent.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I have to disagree on point 3. of the original post as well. They should be prepared to go all in on a row office or two in 2022 - if they ran Poizner again and Lara survived the Democratic primary, I think they'd be odds-on in the Insurance Commissioner's race (in a Biden midterm, of course). Getting an incumbent installed in a row office provides a good foothold for seeking the governorship later on.

[lfromnj]

There isn't a point for the California GOP to exist at the local level besides for the federal congressional seats it gives.  California is a left wing state and any time the CA ds actually do overreach it can(relatively) easily be overturned by referendum. The same fate should hit Missouri Ds soon enough.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I'm saying all this as the perspective of someone from the Inland Empire. An increasingly blue region yet one where it looks redder than it should be due to Democrats aversion to non-presidential elections.

The local level is the only level anymore that California Republicans thrive in. The big problem comes when they have to run for the state legislature on the Republican label rather than "nonpartisan". GOP councilmembers have a hell of a time trying to break through party labels to the point that, even in my increasingly blue Assembly district in the IE, GOP local officials don't even bother running. What they're left with is a dwindling regional bench even when they control a disproportionate amount of jurisdictions. A problem which exacerbates itself when regional Democrats gain influence and start campaigning/endorsing their own like-minded local candidates.

And don't even get me started on the county offices, which are largely contested in low-turnout midterm primaries when Democrats are least likely to turn out.

Also, local Democrats are catching on. Take my hometown of Riverside. This time last year, the 'nonpartisan' City Council was composed of 5 Republicans and 2 Democrats. One odd-year election later and it's now 1 Republican and 6 Democrats, with 4 of those Democrats I'd consider far-left. The culmination of a decade-long fall from grace from when the Riverside GOP controlled both Assembly seats, a Congressional seat and a State Senate seat here.

There's also the dueling problems of more well-off (and moderate) Republicans moving out-of-state to redder pastures and younger CA voters being even more anti-GOP than voters in their 30s. They are plummeting generation after generation with no end in sight. At this rate, they're gonna need a 30 year plan rather than a 15 year plan

[Mike Thick]

I think it's a mistake to see this in terms of parties. The moderates/fiscons who would be pushing this know they can have short-term success putting business-friendly Democrats in the state legislature. No reason to spend so much effort retaking/rebranding the GOP when you can accomplish about the same amount (not a lot) much quicker

Sorry OSR, not gonna happen

I mean by 2034-2042

Politicians have a hard enough time strategizing 14 days in advance, let alone 14 years

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

1. Completely distancing from the national party is impossible. Besides, California Republicans have moved further right just like the national party and are quite extreme.

2. There are plenty of local offices controlled by Republicans, but extremism has been a problem there too. Some local Republican office holders have either switched to Independent or Democratic and some that have not switched just don't engage in local Republican circles. Local parties have been taken over by extremists and have few resources.

3. I'm not sure Faulconer would waste time running to not win an office as opposed to just retiring or taking a private sector job or state level appointment.

4. As conservative as the remaining Republicans are in the state there isn't going to be much innovation. They like doing things as they were done in the 60s, 70s and 80s.

5. The best chance the GOP has at a comeback in statewide office is if Democrats have too many candidates running and get locked out of the top two.

Things can always change if you come up with a plan, the national GOP in 1936 were in worse shape(see below) but eventually came back though it took 16 years. Similarly, the CA GOP should come up with a 20 year plan


House Seats for National GOP after 1936: 88/435 = 20.23%
House Seats for CA GOP currently : 18/80 = 22.5%

Senate Seats for National GOP after 1936: 17/96 = 17.71%
Senate Seats for CA GOP currently: 11/40: 27.5%

National Popular vote for GOP  in 1936 Presidential Election : 36.5%
Statewise Popular vote for GOP  in 2018 CA Governor Election: 38.1%

There are a lot of Republicans within what is left of the state party apparatus who think that the party does not have a problem and blames losing on voter fraud. There's not much desire for change. The minority leader of the state senate believes that the drought was caused by abortion and the last Assembly minority leader who is fairly mainstream is now an independent.

Totally forgot about that one. Classic!

And to think that in 2020 the CAGOP will likely shed more of their "potty trained" members... Yikes.

[Alcibiades]

I commented on why the CA GOP is unlikely to have even the success of the New England GOP parties for a while in another thread:

Great analysis. The other thing I would add as to why it is much easier for the Republicans to win governorships in New England than California is in the former, there isn’t much of a conservative base the Republican candidate needs to placate, whereas the core of the CA GOP is still composed of pretty solid conservatives; New England Republicans having long been some of the most moderate in the nation, whereas suburban SoCal in particular was until relatively recently pretty hardcore movement conservative (Orange County was known as ‘nut country’).

This prevents the GOP from nominating electable moderate candidates in CA as they have to satisfy a primary electorate which is far to the right of the state and has been left behind by its leftwards shift, and the bench, to the extent it exists, is largely composed of people representing conservative districts. This is the same problem the GOP suffers from in Virginia, and I expect will also suffer from in the near future in Texas and Georgia. In all of these states, the fact that there was a credible conservative GOP much more recently than in MA or VT actually works against the party today.

[UncleSam]

Step 1. Should be ‘pray that Donald Trump loses

Step 2. Is pray the national party embraces some policies that are more popular with southern Californians.

The GOP isn’t winning CA again under the current alignment but if they claw back some support in Southern California it isn’t unreasonable to think they could deny a supermajority in at least one chamber or get back to the trend in house delegation totals by the end of the 2020s, and possibly make a serious run for Governor. All of that is contingent on moderating at the national level though, which seems unlikely.

[Blair]

Yeah I mean imo these all things that are easy to write down but are much harder to actually do.

It's like trying to get the Democrats to be competitive in Idaho or Wymoning. Focusing on local issues is great for running for the school board but voters are actually smart enough to know where they want an ideological indivual in office.

The bottom was falling out even in 2010; Steve Cooley pretty much had the perfect race & still lost (albeit it narrowly) If a popular republican can't win a wave year against an unpopular opponent (iirc Harris was seen as weak in 2010) then it's made even harder by hyper-partisianship and the below...

If I'm someone who is engaged, community minded & wants to run for office & if I'm moderate enough to win surely I'd run as a democrat? You saw it imo in the deep south where a lot of people who ran in the 70s,80s & even 90s weren't actually democrats but knew that that was their best route to being an elected offical.

This is made even harder when the pool of activists who run local parties are relatively conservative & the pool of primary voters are even more conservative republicans you just don't have the power to flip a switch.

[Blair]

Besides wasn't the GOP in CA pretty much doing what it needed to do before Trump; sending what 10+ republican members to the House?

It should be a lot easier for them to win back these seats; in the same way it was a lot easier for the democrats to win back seats in red states before they come close to winning statewide.

[Nutmeg]

Total rebranding, starting with the name? California Party? Non-Partisan League? Farmer-Labor Party?

[President Johnson]

How is the CA GOP supposed to actively distance itself from the national party when it sends that party's House leader to Congress?

This. It would also lose hardcore conservative voters than it would win over moderates and liberals. Maybe it would result into a net gain still, but not enough to overcome the Democratic advantage. California is gone for Republicans for a few decades.

[Agonized-Statism]

Their time will come whenever factionalism breaks the California Democratic Party in a few decades. In the meantime, a good place to start would be getting out of Prop 187's shadow and embracing Hispanics. Step up the attacks on corruption and machine politics. Put together a new plan to tackle the debt, excessive taxation and regulation, and the infrastructure deficit. There are so many struggling working class Californians who would be more receptive to an alternative than the same old Reaganomics spiel or the less inclusive forms of populism the GOP has taken to. Also, if the country starts to militarize again as I suspect it will due to a severe downturn in relations with China, be the first and loudest voice to support it. More military bases means more jobs, and that plays well with the populist angle. Double down on the Sinophobia. Californians are more progressive than most but even we'll still fall for the bait, because that's just what Americans do. Throw out some yellow journalism, watch another endless war start, watch them say they'll never let it happen again, rinse and repeat.

The key ingredient is time. Lots of time. The damage done to the Republican brand among key demographics by the Trump era will set things back, though.

[7,052,770]

Do Republicans in California want them to move away from the national GOP though? Seems like there are more Trumplovers there than in any other state.

[DrScholl]

Do Republicans in California want them to move away from the national GOP though? Seems like there are more Trumplovers there than in any other state.

That's the thing. California's GOP is among the most extreme in the country and right-wingers have always been very present in California.