2023 Chicago Mayoral/Aldermanic Elections

[Benjamin Frank]

We aren't going to know who won tonight.

Laugh about it, shout about it, when you've got to choose, every way you look at it, you lose.

[Oryxslayer]

VALLAS - 182,439 (51.2%)
JOHNSON - 173,711 (48.8%)

57% in, gap has narrowed from 11,000 to 9,000.

57%?

Precincts Reported: 855 of 1,291 (66.23%)

Slow-counted Mail. Which is expected to be very Johnson.

[Sestak]

And just like that, a very strong drop for Johnson. If the rest look like that it's very over.

I would rather be Johnson than Vallas. The trendlines look grim...

Dunno if I could say anything that concrete; it's hard to tell if the trendline means anything when there is no geographic data attached.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

And just like that, a very strong drop for Johnson. If the rest look like that it's very over.

I would rather be Johnson than Vallas. The trendlines look grim...

Then again, we don't know what wards have reported more. You could probably deduce that from the council results.

[Benjamin Frank]

VALLAS - 182,439 (51.2%)
JOHNSON - 173,711 (48.8%)

57% in, gap has narrowed from 11,000 to 9,000.

57%?

Precincts Reported: 855 of 1,291 (66.23%)

Slow-counted Mail. Which is expected to be very Johnson.

Well hung ballots.

[Oryxslayer]

Now down to 2.4K lead...

[Sestak]

WHOA

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

And just like that, a very strong drop for Johnson. If the rest look like that it's very over.

I would rather be Johnson than Vallas. The trendlines look grim...

Dunno if I could say anything that concrete; it's hard to tell if the trendline means anything when there is no geographic data attached.

Ok.  Fair point.

[Gass3268]

Holy crap!

[Minnesota Mike]

VALLAS - 182,439 (51.2%)
JOHNSON - 173,711 (48.8%)

57% in, gap has narrowed from 11,000 to 9,000.

57%?

Precincts Reported: 855 of 1,291 (66.23%)

I assume 57% is an estimate that accounts for VBM.

There were 564,000 votes Round 1. Anecdotally turnout is slightly higher this round so I would guess there will be between 550,000- 600,000 total votes.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

VALLAS - 222,466 (50.28%)
JOHNSON - 220,025 (49.72%)

NYT says 73% in, DDHQ says 81%.

[Sestak]

Yeah ok, no, Johnson just might win this thing right now.

[Gracile]

Some more precincts from the leftie 48th Ward just dropped, which brought Johnson about .5% behind Vallas.

Also, Manaa-Hoppenworth took the lead in the 48th Ward.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How is Vallas doing in the 19th ward?

[Oryxslayer]

And just like that, a very strong drop for Johnson. If the rest look like that it's very over.

I would rather be Johnson than Vallas. The trendlines look grim...

Then again, we don't know what wards have reported more. You could probably deduce that from the council results.

Yeah. The simplest explanation is that the majority of wards in Chicago are majority-minority for one group or another, Johnson's coalition is mainly PoC + progressives, and  both Africans Americans and Hispanic voters are more likely to go Eday that White Dems. But obviously there will still be regional variations,

[Oryxslayer]

How is Vallas doing in the 19th ward?

Check back at midnight.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Chicago is so much better at counting ballots than NYC

[Skill and Chance]

VALLAS - 182,439 (51.2%)
JOHNSON - 173,711 (48.8%)

57% in, gap has narrowed from 11,000 to 9,000.

57%?

Precincts Reported: 855 of 1,291 (66.23%)

Slow-counted Mail. Which is expected to be very Johnson.

Are we sure about this?  Was early mail included in the first numbers that had a significant Vallas lead?

[Gracile]

VALLAS - 182,439 (51.2%)
JOHNSON - 173,711 (48.8%)

57% in, gap has narrowed from 11,000 to 9,000.

57%?

Precincts Reported: 855 of 1,291 (66.23%)

Slow-counted Mail. Which is expected to be very Johnson.

Are we sure about this?  Was early mail included in the first numbers that had a significant Vallas lead?

No, the bulk of mail is counted after election day. This should be very favorable to Johnson.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Wait would mail-ins be dominated by White liberals? If so Vallas has a chance.

[Sestak]

Wait would mail-ins be dominated by White liberals? If so Vallas has a chance.

White lakefront liberals are Johnson's best demographic (were his main demographic in the primary)

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Wait would mail-ins be dominated by White liberals? If so Vallas has a chance.

White lakefront liberals are Johnson's best demographic (were his main demographic in the primary)

Really? Surprising.

[Gass3268]

Wait would mail-ins be dominated by White liberals? If so Vallas has a chance.

White lakefront liberals are Johnson's best demographic (were his main demographic in the primary)

Really? Surprising.

It depends where on the lakefront you are.

[Oryxslayer]

Wait would mail-ins be dominated by White liberals? If so Vallas has a chance.

White lakefront liberals are Johnson's best demographic (were his main demographic in the primary)

Really? Surprising.

The divergence between Lakefront mainstream Dems and Liberal Progressive Dems is key here, and we geographically saw a divergence between the Far North and near North sides. Yes, mail is gonna be made up of more Whites than PoC when compared to other groups, BUT in the primary the Johnson - Vallas gap narrowed by a bit when they got counted. So there must also be self-selection bias at play.

[Horus]

50.28 Vallas
49.72 Johnson

82% in per DDHQ