I don't know.. the people on the Iron Range of Minnesota are pretty gruff, old fashioned people.. and they voted for Modale in '84 with a 2 to 1 margin despite having a woman on the ticket.
It would be a very tight race in Minnesota though. Obama would have to have a very strong message.
I'm still a bit skeptical of McCain getting the nomination though. If the establishment could tear him down in '00, what makes you think they won't do it again in '08?
McCain seems to be in a good position with a more unpopular incumbant Republican President in office. He can come in as a strong on security Republican, with moderate views as well. Add a guy like Huckabee on the ticket, and you have a good team.