Trump in 2020: Varying Approval Limits

[RINO Tom]

I know it's far away, but let's imagine two scenarios in 2020: one in which Donald's approval ratings are 58%-40% and one in which his approval ratings are 40%-58%.  What do those two electoral maps look like?  You can pick the Democrat that you think he'd be running for re-election against (but make it the same for both maps) to make the maps more interesting!

[Kingpoleon]

40/58:

416: Ron Wyden/Kyrsten Sinema - 55.1%
122: Donald Trump/Mike Pence - 40.1%
Others - 4.8%

58/40:

374: Donald Trump/Mike Pence - 52.7%
164: Ron Wyden/Elizabeth Warren - 41.6%
John Monds/Robert Sarvis - 5.0%
Others - 0.7%

[Figueira]

40/58:

416: Ron Wyden/Kyrsten Sinema - 55.1%
122: Donald Trump/Mike Pence - 40.1%
Others - 4.8%

58/40:

374: Donald Trump/Mike Pence - 52.7%
164: Ron Wyden/Elizabeth Warren - 41.6%
John Monds/Robert Sarvis - 5.0%
Others - 0.7%

>Vermont

[Xing]

58/40:

40/58:

[Fusionmunster]

40/58:

416: Ron Wyden/Kyrsten Sinema - 55.1%
122: Donald Trump/Mike Pence - 40.1%
Others - 4.8%

58/40:

374: Donald Trump/Mike Pence - 52.7%
164: Ron Wyden/Elizabeth Warren - 41.6%
John Monds/Robert Sarvis - 5.0%
Others - 0.7%

Im triggered by NJ, CT and VT.

[Kingpoleon]

Neither NJ nor CT will be D+9 in 2020, which is what it would take for states that are as elastic as they are not to flip. Hillary got 10% less of the vote in 2016 than Obama got in 2012 as Phil Scott won the gubernatorial election by almost 10%. Leahy underperformed his 50% margin in the polls by almost 25%.

[Vosem]

In the United States, approval rating of an incumbent President during their reelection campaign is usually a proxy of "I will vote for this person or not". This is one of those rules that's made to be broken, but I'd imagine if Trump really has only a 40% approval rating on Election Day 2020 he will lose bigly (though it does depend a bit on who his opponent is), and if he has a 58% approval rating he will win bigly. Neither figure strikes me as likely, though.

Trump got 30% in Vermont in 2016; it was one of the strongest third-party states in the country. That probably does not mean Trump is likely to carry Vermont in 2020, even if he does win a very large landslide.

[politics_king]

We can all agree, Trump is on a very short leash. His numbers can implode rather easily with one bad scandal. That's how bad of a candidate Hillary was with middle America.

[Fusionmunster]

Neither NJ nor CT will be D+9 in 2020, which is what it would take for states that are as elastic as they are not to flip. Hillary got 10% less of the vote in 2016 than Obama got in 2012 as Phil Scott won the gubernatorial election by almost 10%. Leahy underperformed his 50% margin in the polls by almost 25%.

NJ and CT are not elastic. NJ more so than CT as 2016 shows.

[Kingpoleon]

Neither NJ nor CT will be D+9 in 2020, which is what it would take for states that are as elastic as they are not to flip. Hillary got 10% less of the vote in 2016 than Obama got in 2012 as Phil Scott won the gubernatorial election by almost 10%. Leahy underperformed his 50% margin in the polls by almost 25%.

NJ and CT are not elastic. NJ more so than CT as 2016 shows.

Is that why, in 2009, 2010, 2013, and 2014, the Republican nominee for Governor got 48% or more in those states?