China's high-speed train crash

[Foucaulf]

It has been a week since two high-speed trains collided in the Chinese city of Wenzhou, killing about 40 people. The damage goes beyond the victims, of course.

That Economist article is a nice summary, but some points need to be elaborated:

-The official response has been very hamfisted. Government officials buried some of the remaining train carts a day after the incident, which confirmed the lengths local party leaders go through to save face. This does not change how the incident has embarassed the Chinese government; at this time, the Communist Party has tried to reimburse the victims and go on more elaborate PR visits.

-This is the first major incident of the Chinese "microblog age". Twitter copycats have exploded in popularity, and with it Beijing's attempts at censorship have become much more difficult. The high-velocity nature of microblogging means news is rebounded back and forth, too quickly for censors to kick in. Fortunately for the Party, the investigative phase has died down, being replaced with quiet mourning.

Within context, the crash is a physical manifestation of the crony capitalism which, under the guise of investment, has swept over China in the past decade. I'll try to translate some Chinese articles that make the case more eloquently than I would.

[Verily]

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/01/world/asia/01crackdown.html?_r=1&hp

Way too late to do anything but further humiliate the government, of course.

[opebo]

This has been a big story in Thailand, because of the plan by the new government to acqueisce to China's proposal to build (and largely pay for) a new high speed rail from Southwestern China, through Laos and Thailand all the way to Singapore.

Skeptics say 'hey they Chinese are incompetent!', but I've always said - 'what kind of crazy minor power allows the nearby dominant superpower to start turning it into an economic dependency through infrastructure?'.  Personally I think that if Thailand, Vietnam, and the Philippines strengthen their relationships with the US and India, and US clients like South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan, they'll face a much brighter future.  If they embrace Chinese domination they'll remember the Cold War as a time of independence.

[2952-0-0]

There's also the internal political dimension to this accident. The high speed rail building binge is a signature policy of the Party Youth faction (i.e. Hu Jintao and his cronies from his days as leader of the Party Youth), and the opposing Shanghai faction (i.e. Jiang Zemin and his cronies from his days in Shanghai) wants to grab as many positions of power as possible before the 2012 Party Congress. So no doubt beyond closed doors this crash is being used as a lightening rod for clashes between the two factions. We'll only know what occurs through what the state-run media is ordered to report.

[Beet]

There's also the internal political dimension to this accident. The high speed rail building binge is a signature policy of the Party Youth faction (i.e. Hu Jintao and his cronies from his days as leader of the Party Youth), and the opposing Shanghai faction (i.e. Jiang Zemin and his cronies from his days in Shanghai) wants to grab as many positions of power as possible before the 2012 Party Congress. So no doubt beyond closed doors this crash is being used as a lightening rod for clashes between the two factions. We'll only know what occurs through what the state-run media is ordered to report.

Isn't the Hu Jintao faction more moderate/populist whereas the Jiang Zemin/Xi Jinping faction is more nationalistic and hard line?

[Foucaulf]

Personally I think that if Thailand, Vietnam, and the Philippines strengthen their relationships with the US and India, and US clients like South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan, they'll face a much brighter future.  If they embrace Chinese domination they'll remember the Cold War as a time of independence.

My knowledge is that Vietnam already despises China, while the Philippines need China for exports as both countries' citizens despise each other. Thailand is the only one trying to cozy up to the Chinese. Not that I don't agree with you, of course.

Isn't the Hu Jintao faction more moderate/populist whereas the Jiang Zemin/Xi Jinping faction is more nationalistic and hard line?

No Party politician is bound to ideology, and labels like "populist" or "nationalistic" are subscribed ex post facto to the generations of administration. I suppose the Shanghai Clique is filled with politicians from the East Coast who wants that part of China to be the forefront of GDP growth, while the "Party Youth Faction" don't want to incite the poors of interior China by doing so. Practically, politicians subscribe to these cliques to advance their own standing, gather their herds of proteges and to keep their corruption on the down low.

[Simfan34]

There's also the internal political dimension to this accident. The high speed rail building binge is a signature policy of the Party Youth faction (i.e. Hu Jintao and his cronies from his days as leader of the Party Youth), and the opposing Shanghai faction (i.e. Jiang Zemin and his cronies from his days in Shanghai) wants to grab as many positions of power as possible before the 2012 Party Congress. So no doubt beyond closed doors this crash is being used as a lightening rod for clashes between the two factions. We'll only know what occurs through what the state-run media is ordered to report.

Isn't the Hu Jintao faction more moderate/populist whereas the Jiang Zemin/Xi Jinping faction is more nationalistic and hard line?

Hu and Xi are of the same faction, as are Jiang and Wen.

[opebo]

Personally I think that if Thailand, Vietnam, and the Philippines strengthen their relationships with the US and India, and US clients like South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan, they'll face a much brighter future.  If they embrace Chinese domination they'll remember the Cold War as a time of independence.

My knowledge is that Vietnam already despises China, while the Philippines need China for exports as both countries' citizens despise each other. Thailand is the only one trying to cozy up to the Chinese. Not that I don't agree with you, of course.

Correct.  My argument was that the Thais should wake up and jettison their Sinophilia, and realize that even though the others are not to their taste (they hate Indians and look down on Philippineos, and don't particularly like Vietnamese either), their long term sovereignty and national interest is served by minimizing dependency on China.

[Beet]

There's also the internal political dimension to this accident. The high speed rail building binge is a signature policy of the Party Youth faction (i.e. Hu Jintao and his cronies from his days as leader of the Party Youth), and the opposing Shanghai faction (i.e. Jiang Zemin and his cronies from his days in Shanghai) wants to grab as many positions of power as possible before the 2012 Party Congress. So no doubt beyond closed doors this crash is being used as a lightening rod for clashes between the two factions. We'll only know what occurs through what the state-run media is ordered to report.

Isn't the Hu Jintao faction more moderate/populist whereas the Jiang Zemin/Xi Jinping faction is more nationalistic and hard line?

Hu and Xi are of the same faction, as are Jiang and Wen.

Link?

Here is Mine:

"While Mr. Li is a member of President Hu’s faction of “Youth Leaguers,” Mr. Xi is a member of former President Jiang Zemin’s “Shanghai Clique.” As Cheng Li of the Brookings Institute points out, there is a big difference between the two factions.  The Youth Leaguers are more concerned about the growing inequities between the rich and poor in China and providing a better social safety net for those areas of China negatively impacted by its quick economic rise.  The Shanghai Clique on the other hand stresses economic development, high GDP, and continuing China’s integration into the world economy.  Currently, the CCP leadership is evenly split between the two factions."

[Gustaf]

My girlfriend actually rode that train line a week before the crash. Scary stuff.