Nordstream 1 being shutdown permanently

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Title is misleading (they didn’t mention the shutdown being permanent, but rather indefinite).

Hopefully Germany finally stops with its half assed appeasement towards Russia and takes the hit this coming winter and rid itself of its reliance on russia. My question to Germans (since I’m not too versed on this) is how reliable can Norway be as a supplier of natural gas for the time being? If they can supply German this year, Russia is being incredibly stupid.

Thanks, but my rent has already increased by 130 Euros this month even without Nordstream 1 being shut down.

This is coming from someone who would advocate supplying Ukraine with main battle tanks of German production.

Now imagine what a German would say who has opposed supplying Ukraine with arms altogether from the start and who maybe earns half as much as I do.

Imagine how such a person could change his future voting behaviour.

Maybe now you realize that you are trying to invest in a bit of a zero-sum game here.

Is that just the Kaltmiete or are you including electricity and heating?

Anyway, agreed. 300-400 Euro total added fixed costs per month is more than enough to ruin a substantial part of the population and make them "reconsider" their decisions. Not because they are immoral (at least not most of them), but because they will be "forced" into it.

I myself am an unusal mix. I actually support aiding Ukraine both financially and militarily, but I am more in favor of military aid by proxy when it comes to very heavy equipment. However, I am against any mention of hydrocarbon sanctions or immediate reductions of RU supplies (I favor a realistic 5-10 year full transition period), and maybe even opening NS2.

Rechte und Linke mobilisieren seit Wochen für einen „heißen Herbst“ mit Demonstrationen gegen steigenden Energiepreise. In Prag hatten Kommunisten und Rechtsextreme mit ihren Aufrufen Erfolg: Rund 70.000 Menschen protestierten am Samstag gegen die Ukraine-Politik der Regierung.

https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article240849187/Massenproteste-In-Tschechien-zeigt-sich-was-Deutschland-bevorstehen-koennte.html

Germany needs to do what it needs to do to keep its economy strong. Notwithstanding whatever choices are made to reach that point, whether or not it might come off as putting money in Russia's hands in the short term. An weaker economy means less tax revenue, which means, indirectly, less money to give Ukraine and less ability to defend it in the long-term. This is a marathon, not a race.

While neither you, nor I, nor MAE, have quite as much info on hand to make a measured decision as to how this all ought to be handled (relative to professional politicians), long-term it is fair to say that Germany's sheer reliance on Russian hydrocarbons is a liability in this security environment and the long haul is what is most important.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Title is misleading (they didn’t mention the shutdown being permanent, but rather indefinite).

Hopefully Germany finally stops with its half assed appeasement towards Russia and takes the hit this coming winter and rid itself of its reliance on russia. My question to Germans (since I’m not too versed on this) is how reliable can Norway be as a supplier of natural gas for the time being? If they can supply German this year, Russia is being incredibly stupid.

Thanks, but my rent has already increased by 130 Euros this month even without Nordstream 1 being shut down.

This is coming from someone who would advocate supplying Ukraine with main battle tanks of German production.

Now imagine what a German would say who has opposed supplying Ukraine with arms altogether from the start and who maybe earns half as much as I do.

Imagine how such a person could change his future voting behaviour.

Maybe now you realize that you are trying to invest in a bit of a zero-sum game here.

Is that just the Kaltmiete or are you including electricity and heating?

Anyway, agreed. 300-400 Euro total added fixed costs per month is more than enough to ruin a substantial part of the population and make them "reconsider" their decisions. Not because they are immoral (at least not most of them), but because they will be "forced" into it.

I myself am an unusal mix. I actually support aiding Ukraine both financially and militarily, but I am more in favor of military aid by proxy when it comes to very heavy equipment. However, I am against any mention of hydrocarbon sanctions or immediate reductions of RU supplies (I favor a realistic 5-10 year full transition period), and maybe even opening NS2.

Rechte und Linke mobilisieren seit Wochen für einen „heißen Herbst“ mit Demonstrationen gegen steigenden Energiepreise. In Prag hatten Kommunisten und Rechtsextreme mit ihren Aufrufen Erfolg: Rund 70.000 Menschen protestierten am Samstag gegen die Ukraine-Politik der Regierung.

https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article240849187/Massenproteste-In-Tschechien-zeigt-sich-was-Deutschland-bevorstehen-koennte.html

Germany needs to do what it needs to do to keep its economy strong. Notwithstanding whatever choices are made to reach that point, whether or not it might come off as putting money in Russia's hands in the short term. An weaker economy means less tax revenue, which means, indirectly, less money to give Ukraine and less ability to defend it in the long-term. This is a marathon, not a race.

While neither you, nor I, nor MAE, have quite as much info on hand to make a measured decision as to how this all ought to be handled (relative to professional politicians), long-term it is fair to say that Germany's sheer reliance on Russian hydrocarbons is a liability in this security environment and the long haul is what is most important.

Agreed.

Even with a non-rushed and well planned 5-10 year transition away from RU energy, we would still be unable to achieve pre 2022 RU prices, so we would still be sacrificing a competitve advantage Europe had in certain industries, but that is a reasonable and non-avoidable price to pay for energy independence.

However, this rushed "cutoff" is not only hurting Europe, but also did nothing to lower RU energy revenues. Selling 30% less at 200% the price is, after all, still a net positive.

I'm not necessarily sure I agree with you here, but you raise a lot of good points.