🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

But getting political ideologies right is simply not your strength I guess.

This user is on my ignore list since he started to derail threads in German because some people criticized him for hating Muslims (while calling himself "left-wing"). You have good points.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

I think it is not stated enough that these results are totally satisfactory for the SPD, which, after all these years, means something.

Their losses in RLP were marginal.

They lost two percent in BaWü, but these losses are nothing in comparison to the downward trend people often like to ascribe to the party. Funnily, despite the losses, they are in a better position than they were in 2016 because they might very well be included in a government this time around.

I seldom agree with Olaf Scholz but I think he was right last night when he stated that these elections have shown that a CDU-government is not inevitable. The center-left bloc has grown in both states; the CDU is the definitive loser.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Seeing the AfD losing votes always warms my heart.

I know that Schwesig is super popular in MeckPom, but I am not sure about Giffey's personal standing in Berlin as she doesn't seem like a person someone would be really enthusiastic for. I don't know, I assume that this has to do with the fact that she is just super well known. How is it with the other Spitzenkandidaten in Berlin? Do people know who they are?

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

The Green Spitzenkandidat, who stated some months ago that she doesn't see the SPD as competitor for the 1st place anymore, is neither popular nor well known. In fact, Berlin doesn't seem to like any politicians at all. But it is still somewhat satisfying to see the Green hubris facing reality.

Thank you. Yes, I must admit that while I am politically not a fan of Schadenfreude, I was very annoyed with the Green arrogance and self-righteousness of the last two years which was displayed by some in the party and I am very happy for them that they now have to realize that they are not the messianic force the country has desperately waited for.

An approval rating of 11% for the person who claims to be a serious candidate for mayor is absolutely horrible, but so is the 16% for Wegener. 37% for Giffey is not great, but in a factional political system that Berlin has been for 20 years, 37% might be enough. She handled her resignation really well, and she was seen as at least somewhat competent as a federal minister. Good for her.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Two very good polls for the SPD.

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1435839319281963012

Rheinland-Pfalz is governed by Malu Dreyer, who has just in March won a big surprise win with 36%. That poll indicates another 4%. In this poll, Dreyer doesn't even need the FDP in the coalition anymore.

But more importantly, a poll for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern came out, which has an election this September.

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1435829906521436160

The best result for the SPD in MV was 40% in 2002, so it is absolutely possible that Manuela Schwesig brings home the best result the SPD has ever achieved in that state-- that is a sentence that you don't hear very often anymore. Anyway, Schwesig is in a very comfortable position. There is no real opposition towards her, she is super popular even among non-SPD-voters, and she will be able to chose any coalition partner she wants. She will have total freedom.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

These polls are insane. Never thought my party would get 40% anywhere anymore. I hope MV gets a trafficlight coalition and no longer SPD-CDU. Kinda surprising the Greens are so weak there.

It will be interesting to watch if MV and Berlin both go for the SPD; Manuela Schwesig and Franziska Giffey will definitely play an even bigger role in the party and national politics. Both are pragmatic women in their mid 40s with experience and proven ability to win. Both could very well be chancellor material in the future. I like both, though slightly prefer Giffey. Seems like her doctorate issue hasn't damaged her.

Doubtful. FDP MV is really critical of Schwesig's comparatively strict Covid measures, additionally FDP and Greens are miles apart from each other. Last week, the Green candidate on the 2nd spot for the MV federal list was caught destroying CDU and FDP posters, the two parties are highly unlikely to cooperate in a government. R2G seems more probable, although I wouldn't wonder if Schwesig continued to work with a weakened CDU. She could've switched from Red-Black to Red-Red when she assumed office, but didn't.

I am more skeptical about Giffey, she isn't really popular in Berlin, just less unpopular than the others and universally known unlike the other candidates. Federal coattails will likely play a large role in her presumptive win, I doubt it has much to do with her. Considering her poor approvals, the Ph.D. story definitely affected her image.

Hugh, weird. I always had the impression of Schwesig being relatively lax on covid measures. Or maybe I got a wrong impression because Schwesig was very vocal about keeping schools open and inner-state tourism...

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Yikes, that poll is accurate and if all parties at 5% or lower end up not making it over the threshold, the SPD could very well end up with an absolute majority with that poll result. That would be something.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

New poll confirms the trend. The SPD is almost safe to win this but what happens to the smaller parties will be super interesting. I'm almost certain now that LINKE will not make it into the Landtag. The end of an era, really.

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1504712719915753472

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

A new poll basically replicating what we know so far.

https://twitter.com/Wahlrecht_de/status/1505297136866504705

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Here is my very cautious prediction:

SPD: 39%
CDU: 30.5%
AfD: 6.5%
Grüne: 5%
FDP: barely over 5%
Linke: 4%
bunt.saar: just below 3%

Grand coalition is the safest bet, although there might be some pressure from the federal party to consider a red-green coalition now that the composition of the Bundesrat is suddenly important again. As vice-chair of the federal SPD, this argument may weigh quite a lot on Rehlinger.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

At this point, it's even possible the SPD wins an absolute majority. Anyway, if polling is remotely accurate and it's indeed a clear mandate, I could actually see Rehlinger as chancellor material in post-Scholz era during the second half of this decade. If her tenure goes well, she'd definitely be among the frontrunners.

It is, but when you're siding with the SPD, it's best to keep your expectations really, really low.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Yikes, that poll is accurate and if all parties at 5% or lower end up not making it over the threshold, the SPD could very well end up with an absolute majority with that poll result. That would be something.

I mean if there was to be a place where everyone gets screwed by the threshold, it would be Saarland. Linke and AfD have a large eastern base that guarantees 4-parties at minimum, and most of the western states have the large cities and commuter communities that give FDP and the Greens their best results. Saar has neither and the demise of the provincial Linke leaves the big two standing tall.

L O L

I might have mentioned it first, but I surely did not see that coming. In fact, no one saw that coming. All pundits expected a continuation of the grad coalition under the SPD. This is the first election that I can recall in which the SPD was so severely UNDERestimated.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

I mean, if you ask people who their favorite LINKE politician is, you'll mostly get two names who haven't really changed in the last ten years or so: Gregor Gysi and Sahra Wagenknecht - the former would, if not for his socialization, fit easily into the SPD, but commands much respect outside and - probably more difficult - within his party due to his historical significance and the fact that the was the face of the party when it was most successful, from its founding to approx. 2013. The latter is known for being controversial, this is her only thing right now. Gysi is 75 and, while trying to moderate some of the infighting behind closed doors, does not want to be (nor should he) the person who rejuvenates the party. So that leaves Wagenknecht. Moderate/socially progressive members would leave in droves.

The bitter truth is that LINKE just doesn't have a strong bench at the moment. The problem is that so many ambitious candidates are so involved in the infighting that they have become unacceptable to the other factions. Bartsch is an opportunist, a living compromise who stands for ?. They tried to build up Wisseler as a rising star but she is a disappointment. At this point, burning this whole thing to the ground and then figuring out what comes after is among the better options.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

The question is, where does the party go from here? Its previous strategy of fighting the Greens and blowing up the government coalition's consensus didn't really work (whether they get kicked out of both state parliaments or not), all it did was intensify hatred against both them and their partners. Their new parliamentary group leadership has already declared "no new expansion of social benefits" in the current parliamentary term, which will certainly lead to more conflict with the SPD and Greens, (who are already very annoyed with the FDP).

In my opinion, the FDP doesn't get nearly enough blame for the rise of the AfD which they have helped tremendously with their hardcore obstructionism, but sadly, they will come out of this election day with the wrong conclusions, as always.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

this is so stupid

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

The results of the AfD aren´t pleasant, but I´m a bit relieved they´re far away of 20 %.

If they are getting 14-16% in the west, they are probably pretty close to 20-21% nationally.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

A lot of that seems to come from inner coalition divisions, what differs from the UK situation. I'm not that much into daily federal politics, though it appears to me that's because FDP wants to be the opposition with the govt. On the other hand, if they just concede more to SPD and Grune, it backfires as well since their voters are more sympathic to the Union parties.

There is a social-liberal tradition, though Lindner is more on the pro-CDU/CSU side. The FDP as it is has to decide whether it wants to continue the coalition or draw the same conclusion they've drawn after all the other election defeats - to be even more prominent in the coalition and even more aggressive in promoting their positions. It hasn't helped them so far, quite the contrary.

That being said, while I'm certainly not a fan of Wagenknecht, she should just go on and start her party. If there's an unconstructive protest vote, I'd prefer it to go to a party which is not a right-wing extremist.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

You might want to add yesterday's big winner Boris Rhein. Proven vote-getter and also looks like a chancellor.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

What’s the expected ideology of a post-Wagenknecht Linke? Are the moderates potentially leaving because they regard it as too extreme or because it’s a sinking ship?

Democratic socialism, I guess, though I think the party will run out of existence. I'm skeptical though a Wagenknecht party would actually be able to emerge as a serious force. They lack prominent faces besides her and putting together a functioning party apparatus isn't that easy.

Though this also arguably provides some potential-- from anecdotal evidence, I know there are a ton of people who do not want to vote for the SPD because it has moved too far to the centre but also not support LINKE in its current form due to all the crazies defining foreign policy. I think there is a lane for a constructive left-of-SPD opposition, though the 5%-threshold makes these things not easy.