Border wall polling suggests mixed support in swing states

[Tender Branson]

NC (HPU, 717 RV, Feb. 4-11):

47% support
46% oppose

http://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2019/02/63memoB.pdf

IA (Selzer, 803 adults, Feb. 10-13):

57% support
36% oppose

http://www.documentcloud.org/documents/5743629-Trump-Wall-Story-Methodology.html

WI (Marquette, 800 RV, Jan. 16-20):

44% support
51% oppose

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/

In both IA and WI, support for the wall is rising compared with past polls from the same groups.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Iowa is clearly gonna re-elect Ernst and vote for Trump in 2020.

Time for Dems to focus on MI/PA/WI while investing in GA/AZ/NC/TX.

[Tender Branson]

Iowa is clearly gonna re-elect Ernst and vote for Trump in 2020.

Time for Dems to focus on MI/PA/WI while investing in GA/AZ/NC/TX.

Depends on the candidate ...

Trump would likely prevail against a rather left-leaning, openly pro-immigration Democrat, while struggling against a more moderate candidate who sidelines the immigration topic in favour of other topics such as a higher minimum wage.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Iowa has always stood out on this issue compared to other swing states, a trend I first noticed in 2013.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Iowa has always stood out on this issue compared to other swing states, a trend I first noticed in 2013.

This seems really strange, since there have been a number of stories in the past few months about how much Iowa farmers rely on undocumented immigrant labor.

[Koharu]

Iowa has always stood out on this issue compared to other swing states, a trend I first noticed in 2013.

This seems really strange, since there have been a number of stories in the past few months about how much Iowa farmers rely on undocumented immigrant labor.

Farmers are a small percentage of the population, even in Iowa. Most farms are huge and only a limited few involved in the operation realize how integral migrant workers are, and even then they would be loathe to admit it. Same goes for processing plants, etc. The racism towards Hispanic and Latino people is endemic to the area. I grew up in and around it. Some of my family members are disgustingly racist in regards to Latino folks.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Iowa has always stood out on this issue compared to other swing states, a trend I first noticed in 2013.

This seems really strange, since there have been a number of stories in the past few months about how much Iowa farmers rely on undocumented immigrant labor.

Cows and corn don't vote. But the vast numbers of non-college educated whites who live in Iowa and see Hispanics as direct competition for jobs, do.

[DINGO Joe]

Iowa has always stood out on this issue compared to other swing states, a trend I first noticed in 2013.

This seems really strange, since there have been a number of stories in the past few months about how much Iowa farmers rely on undocumented immigrant labor.

Cows and corn don't vote. But the vast numbers of non-college educated whites who live in Iowa and see Hispanics as direct competition for jobs, do.

I dunno.  You rarely see Hispanics occupying jobs outside of the food processing industry in Iowa and whites of any education really have shown no interest in occupying those jobs. Small arms used to rely on family labor including free kid labor, now they're much bigger frequently corporate or LLC and rely on immigrant labor.  Iowa is a fairly old state and the rural counties that are most Trumpy tend to be much older, so it seems more cultural than fear of job competition.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Iowa is clearly gonna re-elect Ernst and vote for Trump in 2020.

Time for Dems to focus on MI/PA/WI while investing in GA/AZ/NC/TX.

I've been back and forth on whether Iowa will be a tossup or lean R in 2020, but this poll suggests the latter, which is depressing. So yes, this strategy that you laid out is probably for the best for the Democratic Party.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Iowa is clearly gonna re-elect Ernst and vote for Trump in 2020.

Time for Dems to focus on MI/PA/WI while investing in GA/AZ/NC/TX.

Swing states AZ, FL and TX voted for Trump based on wall in 2016 in first place. Dems can win without them