Republican Michigander
Jr. Member
Posts: 394
Political Matrix
E: 5.81, S: -2.26
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« on: August 02, 2015, 06:21:36 PM » |
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Stabenow's beatable, but has to be beaten. She doesn't defeat herself with self-inflicted errors and can be a good campaigner when she has to be. I say this as someone who has very little respect for her as a senator (although I respect her as a campaigner).
As of now, I can agree with the poll, but like I said about other polls. August polls are worthless (esp for 2018).
2000 - Spence Abraham left an opening and Stabenow took advantage of it.
2006 - Wave year, Bouchard's team ran generic campaign. He wanted to be governor, not senator and was talked into running. It showed.
2012 - Pete Hoekstra......probably the worst senate campaign I've ever seen.
2018 - Gubernatorial year (advantage GOP). Open gubernatorial seat (advantage remains to be seen - dems have a weak bench - but Mark Hackel would be a strong candidate for governor. GOP has Bill Schuette likely running for governor.)
The one critical thing is that the GOP candidate can not be outworked if he/she wants to win. The candidate can not go into a shell. The candidate can't be over consulted. The candidate can not run stupid TV ads that remind me of Full Metal Jacket like Hoekstra's ad people did.
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