Haven't seen it polled in a long time, though the consensus seemed to be advantage McNerney. This is definitely a change from that, though it is unlikely we will get another poll to confirm it before election day.
Silver's math gave Harmer a 54% chance of taking the seat before this poll, but most polling before this seemed to indicate that the race was either tied or McNerney was inches ahead. I'm not sure whether to trust it or not, but my gut says Harmer pulls it out. We'll see, though. We have to remember that this district swings in different directions based on their mood. Voted for Bush twice, then gave Obama 53% of the vote. Voted for Schwarzenegger twice, and Simon. It voted to re-elect Feinsten and Boxer.
I am very curious to see how this race turns out, and especially how the gubernatorial and senatorial candidates perform here.
