2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: New Jersey

[Oryxslayer]

I decided to explore the hypothetical where NJ does their incumbent protection thing when the delegation is 10-2 and the two republicans do not match the locations of the two most efficient GOP packs. Turns out that it isn't too hard to get the map to work. One just needs to get the north/south border seats, 6 and 12, to reorient towards the north of the state. Getting the minority seats to support the 10-2 is also crucial.



NJ01: D+10.4, the safest non-minority seat on the map goes to Norcross of course.
NJ02: R+7.3, not enough to scare drew in the primary, but enough for him to remain safe if he remains in the Republican Party.
NJ03: D+7, takes in the near bits of Hamilton township that Smith doesn't need. Also ends up as a sort of 'exurban' seat, since Norcross desires his suburbs,
NJ04: R+10.2, standard Monmouth GOP pack.
NJ05: D+6.4, fully inside Bergen.
NJ06: D+6.6, reoriented northwards into the republican enclaves in Union.
NJ07: D+6.5, gets Plainfield plus her environs to support the seat.
NJ08: D+26.1, this seat can't really change. There are ways to rip out Bayonne  and Hoboken, but doing so just distributes the weight of the present seat into that new district, unhelpful when cracking Hudson.
NJ09: D+6.6, obvious drop in partisanship as the surrounding seats get more blue.
NJ10: D+24.4, the AA seat gets fully unpacked in a way that supports the map, but leaves the seat still with a strong >45% AA plurality.
NJ11: D+5.4, more of Essex to reinforce the seat.
NJ12: D+7.3, a reversal of the current NJ05. This is the key to the entire map, since it allows the mid-state seat to help crack the GOP areas in the NW.

[Oryxslayer]

Looks like the two sides may come to a compromise without the tiebreaker needing to intervene:
https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1472976699444846594

Democrats better not wimp out again

What's this 'again?' Last time they held few to no cards thanks to Christie's influence over the tiebreaker. This time the D's hold most, with the only R-held cards being: the peculiar geographic distribution of incumbents, and the recent legislative elections leading to a desire for more and safer Democratic districts on those maps.

[Oryxslayer]

Note that Chris Smith is outside of his seat, though that seemed inevitable given the geography.

[Oryxslayer]

What's the numbers on Sherill Kim and Gottheimer

Sherill is the Big winner here getting a seat that is almost Biden+20.

Kim and Gottheimer are around Biden+12/13.

Pascrell and Pallone are still around Biden+20 and majority minority coalition.

Van Drew's seat is only Trump+5, not huge improvement from previously.

And Malinowski is in a Biden+4 seat as marketed.

[Oryxslayer]

Tie breaker Wallace's rationale for picking the Dem map? The Pub map was picked last time. That's it. Nothing more. Not sure why Wallace bothered to show up at the hearings. His mind was made up from day one. He gave the Dems his proxy vote.

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1473683787968036866?s=20

On one level this is a total L O L, on another though it shows that the D Courts and Murphy were the indirect arbiters of the outcome - just like Christie was in 2011. The NJ system is horrible, but it is working as designed.

[Oryxslayer]

Apparently this is a 9-3 Murphy '21 map according to JMC, going from 6-6 previously.

[Oryxslayer]

Can Kean win in a district that contains Linden and Rahway? They are not Republican-friendly...

And Sherill gets another term because Maplewood and South Orange is added there...

I think given Malinowski's weakness and the fact that it's a good GOP year in 2022, Kean will win. However in 2024 with a presidential election Kean could definitely be in some trouble.

What if Malinowski runs in a different district or retires? Does that increase or decrease Kean's chances of winning?

Net neutral in my opinion. Loses the incumbency name rec. That could be a net negative among the certain subsection of voters that will check the incumbents box and move on, for other voters it could be a net positive given that Malinowski has been making news for the wrong reasons recently.

[Oryxslayer]

Tie breaker Wallace's rationale for picking the Dem map? The Pub map was picked last time. That's it. Nothing more. Not sure why Wallace bothered to show up at the hearings. His mind was made up from day one. He gave the Dems his proxy vote.

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1473683787968036866?s=20
On one level this is a total L O L, on another though it shows that the D Courts and Murphy were the indirect arbiters of the outcome - just like Christie was in 2011. The NJ system is horrible, but it is working as designed.

Actually the NJSC is still R leaning. One of the D justices was Wallace's clerk so did not vote. The rest breaks as 3R, 1 I (seems R leaning), 2 D. The R recommended tie-breaker was a appeal court judge. I was quite surprised when this guy was selected.

We should all know that a R appointed Justice does not a conservative court make, and visa versa for D's, but I accept your correction.

[Oryxslayer]

Court orders their tiebreaker to detail his decision process.

[Oryxslayer]

I think Brittain33 is being honest here but national Democrats goals are Pr or efficiency gap in MI and PA and Wi but in states like CA minority seats come foremost. We would never see the south Brooklyn seat because it it probably takes away the north Manhattan seat even though a south Brooklyn seat is both great on COI grounds and great for partisan responsiveness

Based on a "challenge" by Sol, who opined that it seemed difficult to unite Woke White Park Slope with similar hoods in Manhattan, without messing up minority CD's and so forth, I drew a COI map that I think did the job, which just using neutral redistricting metrics and hewing to COI's, turns out to be pretty much of a Pub wet dream, but hey it gives them a proportionate share using the proper metric (1- ((.6076-.5) x 2) +.5) x 26 = 7.4048 seats).

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::fe817ecb-ce7f-405e-8a00-6e2fcc802294

How did I do? 

Unrelated and tangential, but I'm surprised nobody has yet said your NY-11 needs to be nuked from orbit

[Oryxslayer]

Additional perpetual reminder that if the GOP decided to go laser-eyes in the southern states, as some on Twitter have desired, these maps would get thrown out in their entirety as racial gerrymanders - and very quickly too. Go a bit softer and you'll likely get no challenges - say like the Florida Senate map - or a limited suit - like in GA right now where Elias and Co. are only going after GA-13 and how there should be a 4th AA/5th Dem seat in the metro.

This is probably the most underdiscussed part of the 2021 redistricting story. Partisan sorting means that the only state that can be said to have a truly mismatched state government from it's statewide lean in New Hampshire. Compare this to 2010 and you see the GOP has lost control over most of the state where they can gerrymander away Democratic White voters, leave the minority seats reasonable and intact, and likely get away with it. The places that can be gerrymandered by the GOP are all almost certain to be sued under Section 2. Meanwhile, the decline of RPV in the north means that often times a dem favoring map expands access for minority groups - the new NY-01 for example.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1490756373155659777?s=20&t=XmuZ1nls...

Back to NJ, one of these maps is from the Democrats, one is from the GOP - though the names will remain behind the curtain. I think map 1 - turnpike - is the Dem one and map 2 is the GOP, but only partisan data I think could confirm.

EDIT: yep.

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1490758512674287619?s=20&t=XmuZ1nls...

[Oryxslayer]

Apparently final leg map.