If Trotsky won the power struggle (user search)
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  If Trotsky won the power struggle (search mode)
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Author Topic: If Trotsky won the power struggle  (Read 8478 times)
True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« on: August 22, 2006, 09:23:04 PM »

While the Soviet Union would likely have had somewhat less heavy industry, it would have otherwise been better off economically.  Also, Trotsky would likely have done more to support Republican Spain and probably would have stood by the defense pact with Czechoslovakia in 1938 had he been able to gain the cooperation of Poland.  In any event, there would have been no collusion with Hitler to divide Poland in 1939.  I don't think Hitler was crazy enough to have invaded Poland in 1939 if he had known that the Soviets would have supported Poland instead of stabbing it in the back.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #1 on: August 23, 2006, 10:36:35 PM »

While the Soviet Union would likely have had somewhat less heavy industry, it would have otherwise been better off economically. 

Why do you feel this way?

For one thing, Trotsky was urging the end of War Communism and the start of something along the lines of the New Economic Policy a full year before Lenin was finally convinved of the need.  Trotsky's greater willingness to be pragmatic in economic affairs combined with at the minimum a less harsh introduction of collectivization than what occured with Stalin argues for a economy that would have more sensitivity to the provision of consumer goods than occurred under Stalin's rule.  Indeed, it's likely that had Trotsky won over Stalin that he would have been the Deng to Lenin's Mao and oriented the Soviet economy on market socialist lines.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #2 on: August 26, 2006, 02:36:32 PM »

I'll agree that China currently has a large infusion of corporatism in its market socialist economy, much as the United States fuses capitalism with corporatism.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #3 on: August 26, 2006, 03:49:20 PM »

I said market socialist, not democratic socialist.  As China shows, it is quite possible to have the former without the latter.  I do agree that Trotsky would not have been likely to support the corporatist elements in China's current economic system.

As for the other, I think that under Trotsky's probable policies, the Soviet Union would have had a better overall economy, thus the hit to heavy industry would not have been as severe in absolute terms as as it would have been as a percentage of the economy.  Furthermore, Trotsky would have done more to contain the Nazis earlier, thus not needing to worry about a multi-year war had war broken out in 1938 between Germany on the one hand and Poland, Czechoslovakia, and the Soviet Union on the other, Hitler loses even if Britain and France stay on the side line.  Even supporting Poland in 1939 along with Britain and France would have defeated Germany, altho in either situation I don't think the Hitler of 1938-1939 would have been crazy enough to have started such a war in either circumstance.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #4 on: August 26, 2006, 11:45:59 PM »

Well, I don't buy into the Communist myth that only Stalin's collectivization could have modernized Russia.  The gains made in that period were impressive, but that's been the case for every other econmy that's progressed through that portion of modernization and few of them required collectivization and mass murder to do it.  A considerable flux of capital and a relatively low-corruption business environment that enables achievers to achieve and enjoy the rewards thereof are the primary requirements for an economic boom, and those can be achieved under a wide variety of economic systems.  With the fairly static economy and society of Czarist Russia swept away by the Revolution, pretty much any non-kleptocratic government would have enjoyed an economic boom.
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