Predict the 2022 Senate Election if Trump Won

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Let's say Trump receives 15K more votes in Georgia, 15K more votes in Arizona, 25K More Votes in Wisconsin, and 25K More Votes in NE-02, and is re-elected President.

Here is my 2022 Senate Prediction: https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/qb83m5
Iowa could be competitive if Grassley retires, Rubio would still win, and Ohio depends on if Jim Jordan is the GOP nominee or not.

[Roll Roons]

Democrats would have likely netted between 4 and 7 seats, enough to flip the Senate. For starters, I'm assuming Loeffler wins the runoff. In your scenario, Perdue probably squeaked by with just over 50%, so Republicans would hold the Senate and Democrats would be far less motivated to turn out. However, they would likely flip GA in 2022, along with PA, WI and NC.

FL, OH and IA would be tossups, but I think Democrats would have picked up at least one, with their best bet being an open seat in OH or IA. Sweeping all three would be possible on a very good night.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Democrats would have likely netted between 4 and 7 seats, enough to flip the Senate. For starters, I'm assuming Loeffler wins the runoff. In your scenario, Perdue probably squeaked by with just over 50%, so Republicans would hold the Senate and Democrats would be far less motivated to turn out. However, they would likely flip GA in 2022, along with PA, WI and NC.

FL, OH and IA would be tossups, but I think Democrats would have picked up at least one, with their best bet being an open seat in OH or IA. Sweeping all three would be possible on a very good night.

Perdue would still go to a runoff with 49.9%.

[Skill and Chance]

Democrats would have likely netted between 4 and 7 seats, enough to flip the Senate. For starters, I'm assuming Loeffler wins the runoff. In your scenario, Perdue probably squeaked by with just over 50%, so Republicans would hold the Senate and Democrats would be far less motivated to turn out. However, they would likely flip GA in 2022, along with PA, WI and NC.

FL, OH and IA would be tossups, but I think Democrats would have picked up at least one, with their best bet being an open seat in OH or IA. Sweeping all three would be possible on a very good night.

Perdue would still go to a runoff with 49.9%.

Well, considering Dems won both seats after a Trump loss, I have to assume they would also win both seats after a Trump win.  So the Senate is 50/50 and R-controlled through Pence unless James won in Michigan (he would need more that just a uniform swing). 

A 2022 Trump midterm is probably D+3 as a baseline (PA/WI/NC), so 53D/47R, and even if they lost both GA runoffs, they would still take control 51/49 or 52/48 if Loeffler lost in 2022. 

If the midterm was a wave election, there’s a line around a D+8 PV where it abruptly turns into D+8-10 instead of D+3-4.  They would need this to be confident in holding the Senate if 2024 is a normal non-wave year (it would be line 2018-20 was in the House because 2024 is an almost automatic R+3-4 with R+8-10 potential).

So it’s either 53D/47R or 58D/42R.

[UncleSam]

Democrats would have likely netted between 4 and 7 seats, enough to flip the Senate. For starters, I'm assuming Loeffler wins the runoff. In your scenario, Perdue probably squeaked by with just over 50%, so Republicans would hold the Senate and Democrats would be far less motivated to turn out. However, they would likely flip GA in 2022, along with PA, WI and NC.

FL, OH and IA would be tossups, but I think Democrats would have picked up at least one, with their best bet being an open seat in OH or IA. Sweeping all three would be possible on a very good night.

Perdue would still go to a runoff with 49.9%.

Well, considering Dems won both seats after a Trump loss, I have to assume they would also win both seats after a Trump win.  So the Senate is 50/50 and R-controlled through Pence unless James won in Michigan (he would need more that just a uniform swing). 

A 2022 Trump midterm is probably D+3 as a baseline (PA/WI/NC), so 53D/47R, and even if they lost both GA runoffs, they would still take control 51/49 or 52/48 if Loeffler lost in 2022. 

If the midterm was a wave election, there’s a line around a D+8 PV where it abruptly turns into D+8-10 instead of D+3-4.  They would need this to be confident in holding the Senate if 2024 is a normal non-wave year (it would be line 2018-20 was in the House because 2024 is an almost automatic R+3-4 with R+8-10 potential).

So it’s either 53D/47R or 58D/42R.

Usually the side that wins in November does well in the January runoffs - just an observation from the last few years. Not saying Dems definitely would've lost, but between Trump not grousing about 'stolen elections' and Dems not having the turnout enthusiasm boost of having just won the state I think it likely that Perdue at least would've won.

Either way Dems would've won the senate in 2022 under this scenario. WI / PA / NC / GA all flip for sure, and OH / IA (w/o Grassley) are two additional options to expand the majority. Most likely Dems end up holding ~53 seats or so coming out of 2022.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

It would depend on further court/Congress-mandated encroachment on voting rights and regulations, but assuming that part of the system remains similar to how it was in 2020 and assuming Democrats win the GA runoffs (the $2000 checks backed by Trump would remain a huge political issue), I'd guess Democrats hold their 50 and gain NC, PA and WI while making serious but ultimately failing attempts to contest AK, FL, KS, MO and OH.

In this scenario, Sununu would avoid running and Kander would opt to give it another go. The national environment would depend on Trump's second term which could easily be much worse received than the first.

[Epaminondas]

Democrats would have likely netted between 4 and 7 seats, enough to flip the Senate. For starters, I'm assuming Loeffler wins the runoff. In your scenario, Perdue probably squeaked by with just over 50%, so Republicans would hold the Senate and Democrats would be far less motivated to turn out. However, they would likely flip GA in 2022, along with PA, WI and NC.

FL, OH and IA would be tossups, but I think Democrats would have picked up at least one, with their best bet being an open seat in OH or IA. Sweeping all three would be possible on a very good night.

Perdue would still go to a runoff with 49.9%.

Well, considering Dems won both seats after a Trump loss, I have to assume they would also win both seats after a Trump win.  So the Senate is 50/50 and R-controlled through Pence unless James won in Michigan (he would need more that just a uniform swing).  

If baffles me that this can be a serious take.

Republicans lost the first runoff in 20 years by 1% because they were demoralised after a stunning loss in a state they considered home turf, yet if Democrats had lost you think this wouldn't have affected turnout in a state everyone predicted they would lose?

Isn't is absolutely obvious that Black turnout would have collapsed after a Biden defeat? Just look at... every other runoff, including the one on the very same ballot but which the media didn't talk about as much?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Democrats would have likely netted between 4 and 7 seats, enough to flip the Senate. For starters, I'm assuming Loeffler wins the runoff. In your scenario, Perdue probably squeaked by with just over 50%, so Republicans would hold the Senate and Democrats would be far less motivated to turn out. However, they would likely flip GA in 2022, along with PA, WI and NC.

FL, OH and IA would be tossups, but I think Democrats would have picked up at least one, with their best bet being an open seat in OH or IA. Sweeping all three would be possible on a very good night.

Perdue would still go to a runoff with 49.9%.

Well, considering Dems won both seats after a Trump loss, I have to assume they would also win both seats after a Trump win.  So the Senate is 50/50 and R-controlled through Pence unless James won in Michigan (he would need more that just a uniform swing).  

If baffles me that this can be a serious take.

Republicans lost the first runoff in 20 years by 1% because they were demoralised after a stunning loss in a state they considered home turf, yet if Democrats had lost you think this wouldn't have affected turnout in a state everyone predicted they would lose?

Isn't is absolutely obvious that Black turnout would have collapsed after a Biden defeat? Just look at... every other runoff, including the one on the very same ballot but which the media didn't talk about as much?

No. The news cycle was moving too quickly for it to be certain that demoralisation would decide the runoff and Republican demoralisation may have been primarily fuelled not by the defeat itself but by internal rifts over the stimulus checks and widespread belief that the election had already been stolen from Trump (some Republicans presumably thought there was little value in voting in a rigged system).

A Republican Senate being guaranteed could easily have demotivated both sides but would give Democratic candidates more wiggle room in their runoff arguments. With 'stop the steal' not being relevant in this timeline, the stimulus arguments would have had greater political prominence and McConnell's position would have remained unpopular.

[MT Treasurer]

Peters loses and Perdue avoids a runoff in 2020, everything else stays the same -- 52R/48D in January 2021, but Republicans lose PA/NC/WI/AK and one of FL/MO/OH/KS in 2022 for a 53D/47R majority in 2023. 2024 is another D wave year and Democrats only lose WV in the Senate while comfortably holding the House and flipping the presidency (+TX, +GA, +AZ, +WI, +PA, +NC, +AK). In other words, disaster for the GOP.