UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.

[Pandaguineapig]

If one were thinking cynically it becomes not too ridiculous to think that the LibDems might actually be willing to live with a no-deal than prop up a "caretaker" government because; 1. The last coalition that the party agreed to (one in which they had a lot more power than they would ever have in this agreement) ended in an absolute disaster for the party, almost wiping the party off the map, they would also likely be propping up a deeply toxic figure with serious baggage with the antisemitism scandals and who is a closet brexiter himself, and 2. if they "allow" the UK to crash out with no-deal that leaves them in a stronger position for the snap election than they would be if they propped up Labour

[Pandaguineapig]

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/queen-approves-order-to-prorogue-parliament-for-one-month-until-october-14-a4223326.html

No deal is pretty much locked in at this point, even if there is a successful no confidence motion immediately upon parliament coming back into session a new election would take place after 10/31 and all plans of a caretaker government have fallen through

[Pandaguineapig]

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/queen-approves-order-to-prorogue-parliament-for-one-month-until-october-14-a4223326.html

No deal is pretty much locked in at this point, even if there is a successful no confidence motion immediately upon parliament coming back into session a new election would take place after 10/31 and all plans of a caretaker government have fallen through

Parliament can vote to force the government to go for an extension I think. Its a constitutional deadlock if Johnson refuses, but I think there's still time.

But yeah no chance of a GE now which is a shame as I think its the only way out of this. May's crazy GE was not explicitly about Brexit, this one would be.

The problem is that an election explicitly about Brexit would be one that Johnson would win by taking much of the Brexit party support as polling has suggested. With a majority (and much of the Tory mutineers in the current Caucus being forced to stand down or being de-selected) Johnson would have a much easier time dealing with the fallout of a no-deal Brexit

[Pandaguineapig]

Maybe the EU will finally come to its senses and refuse any further extension, meaning a default no-deal Brexit unless MPs come to senses and vote for old May's deal. This is wasting everyone's time and it can be used far more productively.

I think France is the only country that has given an indication that they might veto an extension

[Pandaguineapig]

Yeah, I hope the myth of BoJo and Cummings as strategic masterminds is dead and buried now. The expulsion of the rebels is especially baffling, since as long as they had something to lose as Tory MPs they might have been reasoned with (at least to try to prevent a no-confidence vote) but now they're entirely free to topple BoJo and install PM Ken Clarke or whomever. BoJo has no way of actually getting the election he desperately wants, and now he has no way to force through a no-deal Brexit. He really shot himself in the foot. That seems to be a pattern with #populist leaders this Summer, after Salvini's equally hilarious own-goal.

The odds of Labour backing a Clarke government are roughly zero

[Pandaguineapig]

Looks like the Hobbit in the speaker's chair would rather retire to the shire than risk losing his seat in the election

[Pandaguineapig]

Looks like the midget in the speaker's chair would rather retire to the shire than risk losing his seat in the election

The speaker's seat generally goes uncontested, at least by the major parties. I guess the Brexit party would contest it, but there's no way Bercow would have lost his seat if he went for reelection

Also, fun fact: Buckingham voted remain. Not by a particularly large margin (48% Leave), but voted remain nontheless.

The Tories announced that they would challenge him for breaking his neutrality. His seat is a remain marginal but it is ancestrally Tory