What's Going On In PA?!

[Keystone Phil]

Calm down. 

Is the race tightening? Yes. Do I really believe Sestak erased Toomey's double digit lead without something major happening? No.

[Keystone Phil]

The double-digit lead is as believable as Sestak's lead...

There isn't a double digit lead now but he clearly had one (or close to a double digit lead) a few weeks ago confirmed by basically every poll.

[Keystone Phil]

The double-digit lead is as believable as Sestak's lead...

There isn't a double digit lead now but he clearly had one (or close to a double digit lead) a few weeks ago confirmed by basically every poll.

Well, no. Rasmussen's 10 point lead is the one of only two "double digit" leads Toomey's shown since Labor Day, the other being from almost a month ago. Rassy's poll is over week old and, as Spade correctly noted, weighted inaccurately GOP in its sample.

Excluding Rassy's week old and questionable poll, the race had been averaging a 5-9 point Toomey lead---and that was also more than 2-3 weeks ago.

Just sayin'....

I said almost double digit lead and note the other polls that showed Toomey with a seven to nine point advantage and I did say that it was two weeks ago.

The double-digit lead is as believable as Sestak's lead...

There isn't a double digit lead now but he clearly had one (or close to a double digit lead) a few weeks ago confirmed by basically every poll.

My point is:if you could trust the 8% lead before based on polls alone,why wouldn't you believe that now it's basically a tossup?

Because there wasn't any reason for the shift. Such a major shift doesn't happen without a reason.

Obama rally in Philadelphia, Democrats coming home in the final weeks of the campaign, some campaign ad resonating. It could be a lot of movement among fickle undecideds rather than voters actively shifting from Toomey to Sestak.

Those aren't big enough events to send Toomey down to the low 40% range.

The double-digit lead is as believable as Sestak's lead...

There isn't a double digit lead now but he clearly had one (or close to a double digit lead) a few weeks ago confirmed by basically every poll.

My point is:if you could trust the 8% lead before based on polls alone,why wouldn't you believe that now it's basically a tossup?

Because there have been a flood of polls since...well...the very beginning of this race showing Toomey in the lead every time and now only two questionable polls show Sestak barely ahead.    

I said the race is narrowing but I'll wait until a third poll shows Sestak up to say it's a total toss up.

[Keystone Phil]

http://politics.blogs.foxnews.com/2010/10/20/gopers-acknowledge-problem-pennsylvania

[Keystone Phil]

Nate Silver seems to agree with Phil.

Imagine the laughter that would follow that comment that if it was made just two years ago. 

[Keystone Phil]

although there is something going on for the Dems in PA-8 out of Bucks County for reasons which escape me.

Pat Murphy is a hell of a campaigner with a strong organization and he remains personally popular. That one will be another close race.

We're expecting to flip four seats. Picking up five or six is a definite possibility (PA 8 is one of them).

[Keystone Phil]

Pennsylvania voters have requested nearly 127,000 absentee ballots so far. Of that total, Republican voters made up 50 percent and Democrats made up 42 percent, according to figures collected Tuesday afternoon.

The state records show Republicans are returning their absentee ballots in greater numbers as well. The state has received about 40 percent of requested ballots, and Republican registrations outpace Democrats by 19 points, 56 percent to 37 percent, according to the state data. Absentee ballots made up 5 percent of total turnout in 2008.

http://www.rollcall.com/news/50845-1.html?ET=rollcall%3Ae8986%3A80063109a%3A&st=email

[Keystone Phil]

...we better be awake at 6:30 AM Eastern. That's when they'll release their numbers on the Senate race.

[Keystone Phil]

I remember how skeptical people were here about Sestak's chances in the primary. He knows how to finish well, and if the polls show a low single-digit race by election day, I will have faith in him.

True but this is a very different type of race.

[Keystone Phil]

Sestak 51-48

1% for...?

[Keystone Phil]

Are Sestak and Toomey the only candidates on the ballot?

Yep

[Keystone Phil]

I was apparently the only one who thought the race would close.

Uh, what?

[Keystone Phil]

I was apparently the only one who thought the race would close.

Uh, what?

I said it about six weeks ago.  Same thing happened with Santorum in 1994.

I'm surprised it didn't get closer about a fortnight ago.

I wasn't here then but I find it hard to believe a few people here didn't insist that it would narrow. I know plenty of people outside of this bubble thought it would.

[Keystone Phil]

But before Sestak supporters get too down, "TCJ" stands for "The Conservative Journal." 

[Keystone Phil]

But before Sestak supporters get too down, "TCJ" stands for "The Conservative Journal." 

There's no proof that those polls are even real.

Haha, do they not do crosstabs or anything? That's hilarious, if true.

[Keystone Phil]

But before Sestak supporters get too down, "TCJ" stands for "The Conservative Journal." 

There's no proof that those polls are even real.

Haha, do they not do crosstabs or anything? That's hilarious, if true.

We should all be wary about TCJ.  We know nothing about their pollster, their methodology or pretty much anything.

Oh, I'm not taking it seriously at all. My friend just told me about it and I laughed out loud.

That being said, could Toomey really be up by five? Sure. After all, Sestak's own internal had Sestak down two yesterday.

[Keystone Phil]

Word is that 8,000 absentee ballots have been requested in Philadelphia. The deadline to request is tomorrow.

[Keystone Phil]

Am I correct in believing this is not a lot (I don't know PA elections "that" well)?

Yep