VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th) (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 14, 2024, 05:50:31 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th) (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)  (Read 164513 times)
Fudotei
fudotei
Rookie
**
Posts: 217
United States


« on: October 18, 2017, 11:10:19 AM »

Northam has a 14 point lead with independents?
Logged
Fudotei
fudotei
Rookie
**
Posts: 217
United States


« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2017, 09:39:07 PM »

I know that the horse race and tendency to portray politics as a reality show is ruining the political climate of the country, but oh man, this is a fun race to watch. Gillespie digging up the dead body of Jefferson Davis and prancing him around on stage while Northam calls him a Trumpite on Fox News --
 a 1m+ grassroots org denounces a moderate in the home of the nationally acceptable Moderate Neoliberal Democrat -- last four days of this are going to be fairly down.

Gillespie by a point. And Guadagno holds Murphy to 10 point margin.
Logged
Fudotei
fudotei
Rookie
**
Posts: 217
United States


« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2017, 10:22:00 PM »

I know that the horse race and tendency to portray politics as a reality show is ruining the political climate of the country, but oh man, this is a fun race to watch. Gillespie digging up the dead body of Jefferson Davis and prancing him around on stage while Northam calls him a Trumpite on Fox News --
 a 1m+ grassroots org denounces a moderate in the home of the nationally acceptable Moderate Neoliberal Democrat -- last four days of this are going to be fairly down.


I disagree with your end analysis, but yeah, this last week has been hell to watch. Its like both campaigns realized that they didn't want to leave any bullets left in the chamber - so they fired them all at once.



I'm (a little) joking about the Murphy result, since Guadagno doesn't have the resources to be throwing up Gillespie ads in New Jersey (this race would be Lean/Likely D even without Christie), but I really am disappointed that the Guadagno campaign isn't doing anything.

Gillespie is playing a pretty solid campaign - classic Trump/Fox 2016 playbook. Repeat, repeat, harp, motivate the base, do not for a single moment let up and make sure the terms are as brutal as can be. The Northam campaign, which exists because it needs to and not for any ideological need, is prone to falling trap to these kinds of attacks. Terrible kind of electoral politics but it's one that becomes inevitable in the changing America.
Logged
Fudotei
fudotei
Rookie
**
Posts: 217
United States


« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2017, 11:00:38 AM »

Gillespie+3

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/VA_TPC_Topline_Oct_30-Nov_2.pdf
Logged
Fudotei
fudotei
Rookie
**
Posts: 217
United States


« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2017, 11:15:18 AM »

Consistent 2-3% for Hyra (local presence?) combined with decent undecideds (7% in TPC poll) = this could go either way

TPC also has undecideds split slightly for Gillespie, which given previous history, sounds good
Logged
Fudotei
fudotei
Rookie
**
Posts: 217
United States


« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2017, 09:55:45 PM »

If Gillespie manages to win this -- and the right-wing media manages to frame this as a success for a non-Trump model of white identity politics -- then it'll be a powerful message to moderates like Flake that the party is changing direction.

Not that Gillespie's history matters. If anything it'll mean he's a more effective and on-task governor than Trump is as President.
Logged
Fudotei
fudotei
Rookie
**
Posts: 217
United States


« Reply #6 on: November 04, 2017, 03:59:03 PM »

Important thing to note is the vote share -- Northam has been close to 50% but not quite there while Gillespie was flinging around in the mid to low 40s. Trafalgar has him at 48% (and down 1 still) meaning he's probably getting the edge on Hyra/undecided voters. Could go down to the wire
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.032 seconds with 11 queries.