ARG polls for OH & CO: Very tight races in both (user search)
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  ARG polls for OH & CO: Very tight races in both (search mode)
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Author Topic: ARG polls for OH & CO: Very tight races in both  (Read 1476 times)
5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

« on: September 13, 2012, 03:22:04 PM »

President Obama won Colorado by about 8% in 2008, so the party registration that you suggest may reflect a now-obsolete reality. The state might be closer this time,  but it doesn't look like a Romney pick-up.

It is possible for Mitt Romney to lose Colorado yest still win -- but Romney would have to win every state reasonably in contention -- FL, IA, MO, NC, OH, and VA. It is practically impossible for Mitt Romney to lose Ohio and still win.
The polls are too close for Romney to win presidency but lose CO. If Romney wins, he takes CO, and he takes the other states like FL, IA, MO, etc. Obama wins, he could take CO.
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5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

« Reply #1 on: September 13, 2012, 08:36:28 PM »
« Edited: September 13, 2012, 08:46:16 PM by 5280 »

Joke polls from a joke pollster.

Actually, if you look into the crosstabs, it's not that close at all in Colorado.  If they had polled the state correctly, Romney would have a decent lead.  ARG has 34 D 32 R 34 I.  The problem?  Active registration is actually like this: 37 R, 32 D, and 31 I.  In other words, they underpolled Republicans by five points, overpolled Dems by two, and significantly overpolled unaffiliateds (who favor the president by two in this poll).

If you work out the math, I imagine that Romney would be leading by at least three or four.  

Unbelievable how people accept this stuff carte blanche without actually looking into whether the books are cooked (as they frequently are, for whatever reason, in Colorado).  

Active registration actually means sh*t in Colorado, because inactive voters can also vote in CO and they do. Counting inactive voters too, the Republicans in the state have only a slight 1% advantage in registration.

Besides, registration numbers don't tell us anything about likelyhood to vote and voter motivation. For example, if the Republicans hold a 1% lead, but 80% of Dems turn out and just 75% of Republicans then the composition changes to a Dem lead on election day. And so on.

Ignore him, Tender. He's just another right-wing troll.

You can call names, or you can engage the argument.  You can only partially blame me for the GOP's registration advantage in Colorado.  But you cannot blame me for this poll.

Have you been intimidating minority voters? Not that I would put it past you, mind you...

...you might end up being someone who acts on Krazen's urges to "quarantine" the minority vote...
Mondale80, what's bad enough is when there's newer people on here trying to explain a different point of view and can't make an objective statement. You call them a troll, resort to name calling and immaturity. How much lower can you get?
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