Ontario 2018 election

[Hatman 🍁]

Just looking at our numbers now. I'm not going to give the topline, but since we probably won't have regional #s out, I can say the NDP have a decent lead in Toronto. They're up 50-24 in central (Liberals in third!) and down 38-40 in the outer region. (margin of error for both regions is around 9).

I'm assuming that "central" means Parkdale-High Park, York South-Weston, Davenport, University-Rosedale, Spadina-Fort York, Toronto Centre, Toronto-Danforth, Beaches-East York and St. Paul's and that "outer" means all the Scarborough, Etobicoke and North York seats, but where do you classify Eglinton-Lawrence and Don Valley West?

If the NDP is essentially dead even with the PCs in outer Toronto it would suggest that the NDP would likely win at least a few seats in Scarborough and North York...and if Ford himself were not running Etobicoke North would be a likely pick up

I have Don Valley West and Eglinton-Lawrence in central as well.

[DL]

For the fun of it, I plugged all the results from yesterday and today into the TCTC simulator.  As you know, I don't think much of the simulator, but did it anyway.  This is what the result in parliamentary seats looks like:

QP MPP Seats (63 needed for majority)               
TCTC Simulator               
                          PC  NDP   Liberal   Government
               
Ipsos Reid           75   45   6      PC Majority
Mainstreet          71   53   0      PC Majority
Pollara                44   80   0      NDP Majority
Inovative           67   51   6      PC Majority
Angus Reid        78   46   0      PC Majority

I wouldn't draw too many conclusions, but the trend is pretty clear.  Unless NDP opens up at least a 5%+ lead, PC win.         

The Ipsos poll had the PCs leading the NDP by 3 points and you say it leads to 75 PCs and 45 NDP and the Angus Reid poll has the NDP leading the PCs by 2 points and you say that yields 78 PCs and 46 NDP? that doesnt make sense

[Tintrlvr]

Just looking at our numbers now. I'm not going to give the topline, but since we probably won't have regional #s out, I can say the NDP have a decent lead in Toronto. They're up 50-24 in central (Liberals in third!) and down 38-40 in the outer region. (margin of error for both regions is around 9).

I'm assuming that "central" means Parkdale-High Park, York South-Weston, Davenport, University-Rosedale, Spadina-Fort York, Toronto Centre, Toronto-Danforth, Beaches-East York and St. Paul's and that "outer" means all the Scarborough, Etobicoke and North York seats, but where do you classify Eglinton-Lawrence and Don Valley West?

If the NDP is essentially dead even with the PCs in outer Toronto it would suggest that the NDP would likely win at least a few seats in Scarborough and North York...and if Ford himself were not running Etobicoke North would be a likely pick up

I have Don Valley West and Eglinton-Lawrence in central as well.

Makes the outer Toronto numbers look even better for the NDP.

Also, Liberals in third in central Toronto might mean zero seats in Toronto for them.

[ON Progressive]

For the fun of it, I plugged all the results from yesterday and today into the TCTC simulator.  As you know, I don't think much of the simulator, but did it anyway.  This is what the result in parliamentary seats looks like:

QP MPP Seats (63 needed for majority)               
TCTC Simulator               
                          PC  NDP   Liberal   Government
               
Ipsos Reid           75   45   6      PC Majority
Mainstreet          71   53   0      PC Majority
Pollara                44   80   0      NDP Majority
Inovative           67   51   6      PC Majority
Angus Reid        78   46   0      PC Majority

I wouldn't draw too many conclusions, but the trend is pretty clear.  Unless NDP opens up at least a 5%+ lead, PC win.
               

Playing further with the TCTC simulator, it shows that it needs NDP-PC>6% for a minority situation and NDP-PC>7% for a clear NDP majority.  As I said, in spite of the known PC structural advantage, this is way over the top imho.  But it confirms that Andrea Horwath has her work cut out for her.

Yeah, I don't think the NDP need to win by 7%. They need to win by 4% I would say to be a clear favourite for a majority, when you take into account that TCTC's simulator does give ridiculously high percentages in safe seats (the NDP are not getting 73% of Nickel Belt or 71% of Mushkegowuk—James Bay at 39% provincewide).

[PeteB]

For the fun of it, I plugged all the results from yesterday and today into the TCTC simulator.  As you know, I don't think much of the simulator, but did it anyway.  This is what the result in parliamentary seats looks like:

QP MPP Seats (63 needed for majority)               
TCTC Simulator               
                          PC  NDP   Liberal   Government
               
Ipsos Reid           75   45   6      PC Majority
Mainstreet          71   53   0      PC Majority
Pollara                44   80   0      NDP Majority
Inovative           67   51   6      PC Majority
Angus Reid        78   46   0      PC Majority

I wouldn't draw too many conclusions, but the trend is pretty clear.  Unless NDP opens up at least a 5%+ lead, PC win.         

The Ipsos poll had the PCs leading the NDP by 3 points and you say it leads to 75 PCs and 45 NDP and the Angus Reid poll has the NDP leading the PCs by 2 points and you say that yields 78 PCs and 46 NDP? that doesnt make sense

Agreed that it doesn't make sense, as I already commented.  But these are the actual numbers the simulator spews out.  Be my guest and test it out:
http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/ontario-2018-simulator.html
There is even a scenario where PC is 3% behind the NDP, and still wins a majority.  As I noted, the simulator practically requires the NDP lead to be 7%+ for an NDP majority.

BTW, the 6 "safest" Liberal seats according to the simulator are:

Don Valley East
Don Valley West
Mississauga Centre
Ottawa Vanier
Toronto - St. Paul's
Vaughan - Woodbridge

[PeteB]

For the fun of it, I plugged all the results from yesterday and today into the TCTC simulator.  As you know, I don't think much of the simulator, but did it anyway.  This is what the result in parliamentary seats looks like:

QP MPP Seats (63 needed for majority)               
TCTC Simulator               
                          PC  NDP   Liberal   Government
               
Ipsos Reid           75   45   6      PC Majority
Mainstreet          71   53   0      PC Majority
Pollara                44   80   0      NDP Majority
Inovative           67   51   6      PC Majority
Angus Reid        78   46   0      PC Majority

I wouldn't draw too many conclusions, but the trend is pretty clear.  Unless NDP opens up at least a 5%+ lead, PC win.
               

Playing further with the TCTC simulator, it shows that it needs NDP-PC>6% for a minority situation and NDP-PC>7% for a clear NDP majority.  As I said, in spite of the known PC structural advantage, this is way over the top imho.  But it confirms that Andrea Horwath has her work cut out for her.

Yeah, I don't think the NDP need to win by 7%. They need to win by 4% I would say to be a clear favourite for a majority, when you take into account that TCTC's simulator does give ridiculously high percentages in safe seats (the NDP are not getting 73% of Nickel Belt or 71% of Mushkegowuk—James Bay at 39% provincewide).

And ridiculously low ones.  Once the Liberals fall under 20%, they are assigned 0% in a bunch of ridings!?!

[DL]

BTW, the 6 "safest" Liberal seats according to the simulator are:

Don Valley East
Don Valley West
Mississauga Centre
Ottawa Vanier
Toronto - St. Paul's
Vaughan - Woodbridge

Of those six seats, I would bet any amount of money that the Liberals will lose Vaughan-Woodbridge to the PCs and that it won't even be close. In fact LIUNA released a poll of that riding that had the Liberals losing by 25 points

Mainstreet has the Liberals running THIRD in Don Valley East and has the Liberals in a dead heat with the NDP in St. Paul's...I have not seen any polling specifically in Mississauga Centre but the swings against the Liberals across Peel are so strong its hard to see them winning there

[King of Kensington]

The Toronto numbers are encouraging for the NDP.  If they're not leading comfortably in the province's largest city it's really hard to see a path to victory for them.  Still depending on how the vote goes, Ford could deny them a few seats that they'd be winning in Scarborough (and of course he almost certainly will in Etobicoke North!) if the PCs had a more "generic" leader.

SW Ontario is proving to be competitive between the PCs and NDP.  So it looks like they'll be splitting the region in terms of seats, with the NDP dominating the cities.

[King of Kensington]

Seat projectors are almost useless in this climate.  I'd be more confident in the Liberals winning the Thunder Bay seats than Woodbridge.

[ON Progressive]

Seat projectors are almost useless in this climate.  I'd be more confident in the Liberals winning the Thunder Bay seats than Woodbridge.

Yeah. IIRC, seat projectors did awful in 2011/2015 federally (and those two, just like the polls suggest will happen here, had huge swings)

[lilTommy]

The Toronto numbers are encouraging for the NDP.  If they're not leading comfortably in the province's largest city it's really hard to see a path to victory for them.  Still depending on how the vote goes, Ford could deny them a few seats that they'd be winning in Scarborough (and of course he almost certainly will in Etobicoke North!) if the PCs had a more "generic" leader.

SW Ontario is proving to be competitive between the PCs and NDP.  So it looks like they'll be splitting the region in terms of seats, with the NDP dominating the cities.

Yup, very positive for the NDP: looking at 2014, the PCs vote is only up (based on polls) by 5% 23%-28%, That can't be enough to take many seats; with the NDP at around 40% seats like Don Valley East are effectively in play since the PC/OLP are splitting the vote enough for the NDP to squeak in 35% or so. But I'm more inclined to say Willowdale and Don Valley North, are going PC, with the NDP/OLP splitting the vote enough.
Etobicoke is hard to say, we don't know what the Ford personal effect is, I hear he is in a very tough fight in Etobicoke North, and sans Ford this seat would be more comfortably in the NDP column.

In the SW (excluding SC the Hamilton-Niagara area) The NDP still need the PCs to drop about 3-5% more to pick up those rural seats similar to 1990; but KWGC metro area is looking really good for the NDP to sweep up OLP seats and PC seats.

If the OLP wins seats up North, it would only be Thunder Bay. But Angus and Mainstreet have the OLP polling at 9% and 12% in the North... I think the TB riding's are lost at this point to the NDP. I'm watching Sault.Ste.Marie and Nipissing to see if the NDP can pick both up from the PCs...

[PeteB]

The Toronto numbers are encouraging for the NDP.  If they're not leading comfortably in the province's largest city it's really hard to see a path to victory for them.  Still depending on how the vote goes, Ford could deny them a few seats that they'd be winning in Scarborough (and of course he almost certainly will in Etobicoke North!) if the PCs had a more "generic" leader.

SW Ontario is proving to be competitive between the PCs and NDP.  So it looks like they'll be splitting the region in terms of seats, with the NDP dominating the cities.

Yup, very positive for the NDP: looking at 2014, the PCs vote is only up (based on polls) by 5% 23%-28%, That can't be enough to take many seats; with the NDP at around 40% seats like Don Valley East are effectively in play since the PC/OLP are splitting the vote enough for the NDP to squeak in 35% or so. But I'm more inclined to say Willowdale and Don Valley North, are going PC, with the NDP/OLP splitting the vote enough.
Etobicoke is hard to say, we don't know what the Ford personal effect is, I hear he is in a very tough fight in Etobicoke North, and sans Ford this seat would be more comfortably in the NDP column.

In the SW (excluding SC the Hamilton-Niagara area) The NDP still need the PCs to drop about 3-5% more to pick up those rural seats similar to 1990; but KWGC metro area is looking really good for the NDP to sweep up OLP seats and PC seats.

If the OLP wins seats up North, it would only be Thunder Bay. But Angus and Mainstreet have the OLP polling at 9% and 12% in the North... I think the TB riding's are lost at this point to the NDP. I'm watching Sault.Ste.Marie and Nipissing to see if the NDP can pick both up from the PCs...

What makes you think that Fedeli would even come close to losing Nipissing, in the current political climate?  If the PC forms government, he is guaranteed a top position there, and he has cross party appeal in North Bay.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Toronto numbers are encouraging for the NDP.  If they're not leading comfortably in the province's largest city it's really hard to see a path to victory for them.  Still depending on how the vote goes, Ford could deny them a few seats that they'd be winning in Scarborough (and of course he almost certainly will in Etobicoke North!) if the PCs had a more "generic" leader.

SW Ontario is proving to be competitive between the PCs and NDP.  So it looks like they'll be splitting the region in terms of seats, with the NDP dominating the cities.

Yup, very positive for the NDP: looking at 2014, the PCs vote is only up (based on polls) by 5% 23%-28%, That can't be enough to take many seats; with the NDP at around 40% seats like Don Valley East are effectively in play since the PC/OLP are splitting the vote enough for the NDP to squeak in 35% or so. But I'm more inclined to say Willowdale and Don Valley North, are going PC, with the NDP/OLP splitting the vote enough.
Etobicoke is hard to say, we don't know what the Ford personal effect is, I hear he is in a very tough fight in Etobicoke North, and sans Ford this seat would be more comfortably in the NDP column.

In the SW (excluding SC the Hamilton-Niagara area) The NDP still need the PCs to drop about 3-5% more to pick up those rural seats similar to 1990; but KWGC metro area is looking really good for the NDP to sweep up OLP seats and PC seats.

If the OLP wins seats up North, it would only be Thunder Bay. But Angus and Mainstreet have the OLP polling at 9% and 12% in the North... I think the TB riding's are lost at this point to the NDP. I'm watching Sault.Ste.Marie and Nipissing to see if the NDP can pick both up from the PCs...

What makes you think that Fedeli would even come close to losing Nipissing, in the current political climate?  If the PC forms government, he is guaranteed a top position there, and he has cross party appeal in North Bay.

Perhaps the recent Mainstreet poll of that riding tipped him off?

[PeteB]

The Toronto numbers are encouraging for the NDP.  If they're not leading comfortably in the province's largest city it's really hard to see a path to victory for them.  Still depending on how the vote goes, Ford could deny them a few seats that they'd be winning in Scarborough (and of course he almost certainly will in Etobicoke North!) if the PCs had a more "generic" leader.

SW Ontario is proving to be competitive between the PCs and NDP.  So it looks like they'll be splitting the region in terms of seats, with the NDP dominating the cities.

Yup, very positive for the NDP: looking at 2014, the PCs vote is only up (based on polls) by 5% 23%-28%, That can't be enough to take many seats; with the NDP at around 40% seats like Don Valley East are effectively in play since the PC/OLP are splitting the vote enough for the NDP to squeak in 35% or so. But I'm more inclined to say Willowdale and Don Valley North, are going PC, with the NDP/OLP splitting the vote enough.
Etobicoke is hard to say, we don't know what the Ford personal effect is, I hear he is in a very tough fight in Etobicoke North, and sans Ford this seat would be more comfortably in the NDP column.

In the SW (excluding SC the Hamilton-Niagara area) The NDP still need the PCs to drop about 3-5% more to pick up those rural seats similar to 1990; but KWGC metro area is looking really good for the NDP to sweep up OLP seats and PC seats.

If the OLP wins seats up North, it would only be Thunder Bay. But Angus and Mainstreet have the OLP polling at 9% and 12% in the North... I think the TB riding's are lost at this point to the NDP. I'm watching Sault.Ste.Marie and Nipissing to see if the NDP can pick both up from the PCs...

What makes you think that Fedeli would even come close to losing Nipissing, in the current political climate?  If the PC forms government, he is guaranteed a top position there, and he has cross party appeal in North Bay.

Perhaps the recent Mainstreet poll of that riding tipped him off?

Is Fedeli behind in that poll?

...Never mind - I just saw Fedeli has about a ten point lead - not sure why this would be even in contention - the NDP probably got as much of the Liberal vote as they could.  If the NDP hits 45%+ provincewide, ridings like Nipissing may come into play - otherwise very little chance.

[DL]

I certainly love reading about the riding polls by Mainstreet but it should be noted that it is extremely challenging to do riding polls these days - especially in urban ridings - because it is literally impossible to get cell phone numbers at the riding level. That means that if you see a poll of 500 people in St. Paul's (for example) it is a poll of 500 people with directory listed land lines in that riding...there is likely almost no one under the age of 40 in the sample apart from a few millennials living with their parents who happen to pick up the phone. You can weight by age...but its tough when you have such a tiny number of young people in the sample to begin with.

[DL]

Is Fedeli behind in that poll?

No, but he only has a modest single digit lead over the NDP in a seat that he won by a big margin in 2014

[lilTommy]

The Toronto numbers are encouraging for the NDP.  If they're not leading comfortably in the province's largest city it's really hard to see a path to victory for them.  Still depending on how the vote goes, Ford could deny them a few seats that they'd be winning in Scarborough (and of course he almost certainly will in Etobicoke North!) if the PCs had a more "generic" leader.

SW Ontario is proving to be competitive between the PCs and NDP.  So it looks like they'll be splitting the region in terms of seats, with the NDP dominating the cities.

Yup, very positive for the NDP: looking at 2014, the PCs vote is only up (based on polls) by 5% 23%-28%, That can't be enough to take many seats; with the NDP at around 40% seats like Don Valley East are effectively in play since the PC/OLP are splitting the vote enough for the NDP to squeak in 35% or so. But I'm more inclined to say Willowdale and Don Valley North, are going PC, with the NDP/OLP splitting the vote enough.
Etobicoke is hard to say, we don't know what the Ford personal effect is, I hear he is in a very tough fight in Etobicoke North, and sans Ford this seat would be more comfortably in the NDP column.

In the SW (excluding SC the Hamilton-Niagara area) The NDP still need the PCs to drop about 3-5% more to pick up those rural seats similar to 1990; but KWGC metro area is looking really good for the NDP to sweep up OLP seats and PC seats.

If the OLP wins seats up North, it would only be Thunder Bay. But Angus and Mainstreet have the OLP polling at 9% and 12% in the North... I think the TB riding's are lost at this point to the NDP. I'm watching Sault.Ste.Marie and Nipissing to see if the NDP can pick both up from the PCs...

What makes you think that Fedeli would even come close to losing Nipissing, in the current political climate?  If the PC forms government, he is guaranteed a top position there, and he has cross party appeal in North Bay.

Perhaps the recent Mainstreet poll of that riding tipped him off?

Is Fedeli behind in that poll?

I haven't seen the polling, I wish, but pay-wall. This is my general impression of what I am hearing, updates on social media from the area.
Also, it's really the next most likely target after SSM in my opinion. You could probably flip a coin between Nipissing and Parry South-Muskoka over which one would go NDP.

[King of Kensington]

LIUNA poll of Woodbridge has the PCs at over 50% and Del Duca fighting for second place with the NDP!

http://www.liuna.ca/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=77:ontario-election-vaughn-woodbridge-poll-by-campaign-research&catid=8&Itemid=106

Even with the small sample size, this poll would have to be spectacularly wrong for Del Duca to prevail.

It's not that surprising really.  First, the Liberals are dead in 905.  And the federal Conservatives got 44% of the vote there during the 2015 red wave, so it's not as if there isn't a sizable small-"c" conservative vote.

Plus, it's a very "Fordian" riding.

[lilTommy]

LIUNA poll of Woodbridge has the PCs at over 50% and Del Duca fighting for second place with the NDP!

http://www.liuna.ca/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=77:ontario-election-vaughn-woodbridge-poll-by-campaign-research&catid=8&Itemid=106

Even with the small sample size, this poll would have to be spectacularly wrong for Del Duca to prevail.

It's not that surprising really.  First, the Liberals are dead in 905.  And the federal Conservatives got 44% of the vote there during the 2015 red wave, so it's not as if there isn't a sizable small-"c" conservative vote.

Plus, it's a very "Fordian" riding.

The Liberals are going to lose every riding in the 905, Peel, Durham and York. I can't see any seat they'd win?. My only prediction was Sousa in Mississauga-Lakeshore, but sounds like he's trailing.

[Hatman 🍁]

I certainly love reading about the riding polls by Mainstreet but it should be noted that it is extremely challenging to do riding polls these days - especially in urban ridings - because it is literally impossible to get cell phone numbers at the riding level. That means that if you see a poll of 500 people in St. Paul's (for example) it is a poll of 500 people with directory listed land lines in that riding...there is likely almost no one under the age of 40 in the sample apart from a few millennials living with their parents who happen to pick up the phone. You can weight by age...but its tough when you have such a tiny number of young people in the sample to begin with.

Mainstreet claims that they have figured out a way around this. We are certainly experimenting with a method ourselves, but yeah... extremely difficult.

[King of Kensington]

The Liberals are going to lose every riding in the 905, Peel, Durham and York. I can't see any seat they'd win?. My only prediction was Sousa in Mississauga-Lakeshore, but sounds like he's trailing.

I think the only people who are voting "Del Duca for Liberal leader" are the diehard Liberal partisans.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Toronto numbers are encouraging for the NDP.  If they're not leading comfortably in the province's largest city it's really hard to see a path to victory for them.  Still depending on how the vote goes, Ford could deny them a few seats that they'd be winning in Scarborough (and of course he almost certainly will in Etobicoke North!) if the PCs had a more "generic" leader.

SW Ontario is proving to be competitive between the PCs and NDP.  So it looks like they'll be splitting the region in terms of seats, with the NDP dominating the cities.

Yup, very positive for the NDP: looking at 2014, the PCs vote is only up (based on polls) by 5% 23%-28%, That can't be enough to take many seats; with the NDP at around 40% seats like Don Valley East are effectively in play since the PC/OLP are splitting the vote enough for the NDP to squeak in 35% or so. But I'm more inclined to say Willowdale and Don Valley North, are going PC, with the NDP/OLP splitting the vote enough.
Etobicoke is hard to say, we don't know what the Ford personal effect is, I hear he is in a very tough fight in Etobicoke North, and sans Ford this seat would be more comfortably in the NDP column.

In the SW (excluding SC the Hamilton-Niagara area) The NDP still need the PCs to drop about 3-5% more to pick up those rural seats similar to 1990; but KWGC metro area is looking really good for the NDP to sweep up OLP seats and PC seats.

If the OLP wins seats up North, it would only be Thunder Bay. But Angus and Mainstreet have the OLP polling at 9% and 12% in the North... I think the TB riding's are lost at this point to the NDP. I'm watching Sault.Ste.Marie and Nipissing to see if the NDP can pick both up from the PCs...

What makes you think that Fedeli would even come close to losing Nipissing, in the current political climate?  If the PC forms government, he is guaranteed a top position there, and he has cross party appeal in North Bay.

Perhaps the recent Mainstreet poll of that riding tipped him off?

Is Fedeli behind in that poll?

I haven't seen the polling, I wish, but pay-wall. This is my general impression of what I am hearing, updates on social media from the area.
Also, it's really the next most likely target after SSM in my opinion. You could probably flip a coin between Nipissing and Parry South-Muskoka over which one would go NDP.

Well, Nipissing is actually a majority urban riding (North Bay), so the NDP would definitely have a shot if Fideli wasn't so popular.

Parry Sound-Muskoka is very WASPy/ Old school conservative (but also very rural/small town), so could be a riding turned off of Fordism, but the NDP has no history there. The riding does have a lot of granola hippie types too that typically vote Green, but who might vote NDP this time.  Still though, the NDP has a better shot at Nipissing.

[DL]

So the latest Ekos is out and has it about tied NDP 38.4, PCs 37.9 and Liberals 19.1%...The EKOS polls always have kinda skimpy sample sizes by IVR standards (e.g. n of 1,000 over three days while Mainstreet has n of 2,400)...the marginal cost of adding sample in an IVR poll is so low i wonder why they don't do more

[DC Al Fine]

I certainly love reading about the riding polls by Mainstreet but it should be noted that it is extremely challenging to do riding polls these days - especially in urban ridings - because it is literally impossible to get cell phone numbers at the riding level. That means that if you see a poll of 500 people in St. Paul's (for example) it is a poll of 500 people with directory listed land lines in that riding...there is likely almost no one under the age of 40 in the sample apart from a few millennials living with their parents who happen to pick up the phone. You can weight by age...but its tough when you have such a tiny number of young people in the sample to begin with.

To add to that, it doesn't necessarily follow that young people who live with their parents vote the same way as their counterparts living independently.

[PeteB]

So the latest Ekos is out and has it about tied NDP 38.4, PCs 37.9 and Liberals 19.1%...The EKOS polls always have kinda skimpy sample sizes by IVR standards (e.g. n of 1,000 over three days while Mainstreet has n of 2,400)...the marginal cost of adding sample in an IVR poll is so low i wonder why they don't do more

The trendlines in that EKOS poll, over the past two days, are interesting:
http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2018/05/race-deadlocked/