German Elections & Politics

[Yeahsayyeah]

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The BPjM isn't index-like. "Media imperiling the youth" are going "on the index", literally.

The irony is, that the "Kameradschaft" organisations this party is based on are already banned, but parties are specially protected by the Grundgesetz, in that they only can be banned via the Constitutional court. . This is an expensive procedure, so it is only used for quiet important parties and not for obscure right and left wing splinter groups. (There is an NPD case pending at the moment, but it would only be the third banned party in BRD/FRG history). There is also a minor procedure, that the Constitutional Court can state, that an organisation isn't a party, so it can be banned as a normal association. This happened to another militant Neonazi organisation, the FAP (Freiheitliche Arbeiterpartei) in 1994.

[Yeahsayyeah]

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AfD mixes economic liberalism (real meaning, not the American one) and welfare cuts with social conservatism and xenophobia, so its literally the total opposite of what is in the Linke's party platform.

[Yeahsayyeah]

In ST CDU-SPD-Green (Kenya) is the only coalition of some viability, but it would probably act more like a caretaker government (and for that reason it is possible we will see new elections there, soon. At least, I doubt, this would last the full term.

I can't really think of a viable minority government, either.

[Yeahsayyeah]

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I don't think that it has anything to do with the "proximity to Berlin" or much with the "proximity to Saxony". Why should Berlin have influence over the Altmark and Börde regions? The southern parts have not been part of Saxony for 200 years (some never have, by the way).

The south of Sachsen-Anhalt has been one of the most industrialised regions of Germany until 1990 (coal and other mining, heavy and chemical industry). So deinstrualisation after 1990 has hit in the hardest possible way and this fosters brain drain and dissatisfaction of the leftovers. The north seems more complicated. It is generally more rural and agricultural, but had been more friendly to the SPD in the beginning, which was probably because of Reinhold Höppner, who had been an important figure in the Evangelical Church of the Church province of Saxony (which means the Prussian province of Saxony that is now part of Saxony-Anhalt). But this seems to have vanished over time and those voters probably went to the CDU. And if proximity plays a role, its probably the proximity to the West, where the jobs are.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Seems more like a fight of personal circles than something that is really rooted in "political ideological wings". SPD in Berlin is the "bloodless party of governance without any ideas or even principles", anyway. Müller seems like a middle-of-the-road SPD technocrat to me, Stöss more like a "socially liberal" (American meaning) with a Wowereitish persona.

SPD will leave the coalition with the CDU after the election, anyway. Both parties and even the cabinet members despise each other in public. The only raison d'etre of this coalition was the enforcement of the building of the disputed Autobahn A 100 extension, which is now underway  and they twiddled their thumbs, since, which is an absolute disaster.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Some traits (exit poll by ARD): 56 per cent view the economic situation in MVP as "good", 73 per cent approve of the work of prime minister Erwin Sellering. Around three of four say, this election won't affect their personal life.

[Yeahsayyeah]

If anybody ist interested in results as counted

http://service.mvnet.de/wahlen/2016_land/dateien/atlanten/ergebnisse.2016/landtagswahl.html

[Yeahsayyeah]

The Greens would need around 7 per cent of the votes (around one inf five) not counted. Not totally impossible as postal ballots are often counted last and the cities are undercounted until now, but it does not seem to likely and the rural areas undercounted by now seem to be a mixed bag.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Okay, with the last swath of votes it would now be almost 8 percent. It seems more and more likely the Greens are out.

[Yeahsayyeah]

And the first district is fully counted. AFD gain Lichtenberg 1 (Hohenschönhausen-Nord, Wartenberg, Falkenberg) from LINKE. Expect some of those to follow, although the main loser, percentage wise seems to be the SPD here.

It also seems the Linke has lost votes in their Plattenbau strongholds and won big in the inner city west. AFD is acellerating the transformation of the Linke to a normal left wing party, a bit.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Mitte 6 (Gesundbrunnen) - SPD hold - by a hair against Greens
Spandau 4 (Staaken - Falkenhagener Feld Süd) - CDU hold - by a hair against SPD
Tempelhof-Schöneberg 1 (Schöneberg-Nord) - Greens hold

[Yeahsayyeah]

Low energy CDU 0,2 per cent in front of the Greens in East Berlin overall. Tough fight for fourth place. ;-)

[Yeahsayyeah]

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It's mainly suburban. One-family-houses and two-family-houses, old and new. Such areas are normally the strongest for the CDU in German cities. (higher income, older population, more Christianity, less diversity, and so on).

Most of the development in Kaulsdorf seems to have been from about 1909 to 1940 with some extensions in the eighties and the 2000s. In Mahlsdorf it's from 1902 to 1940 with some 1990s. So it is basically "old suburbia" with some "new suburbia". And so its no "new thing"

[Yeahsayyeah]

He's minister of foreign affairs. That's the reason for his approval ratings. Westerwelle was the only one to screw up in this regard. If not for that he's just "bland technocrat third-way SPD", which would not induce such approval ratings.

[Yeahsayyeah]

In 2010 the outcome was a red-green minority government tolerated by Die Linke. This maybe gives a hint. Much will probably depend on weither Die Linke faction will be more of a dogmatic or a "realo" kind. Given the history of the party in NRW I would suspect the former, but I am not aware of newer developments.

[Yeahsayyeah]

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There were polls in the middle of june by state done for the regional television mdr by infratest dimap

Saxony

CDU: 46%
AfD: 18%
Linke: 14%
SPD: 11%
FDP: 5%
Greens: 3%
Others: 3%

Saxony-Anhalt

CDU: 45
Linke: 17
SPD: 14
AfD: 11
FDP: 6
Greens: 4
Others: 3

Thuringia

CDU: 43
Linke: 20
SPD: 12
AfD: 12
FDP: 5
Greens: 4
Others: 2

There is a newer INSA poll for Thuringia that gives a different picture

CDU: 39
Linke: 18
AfD: 18
SPD: 14
FDP: 5
Greens: 4

The AfD finishing second in some "rural" districts in Saxony is what one would expect with these numbers, but the CDU will win them huge anyway and the margin from the AfD to the others would be slim. I'm not that sure about the exact districts. There haven't been strong rural patterns in the AfD, SPD and Left vote, despite the urban-rural divide (which has been more of a CDU vs. Left/SPD/Green divide than a divide for the AfD in 2013). And there haven't been district candidates for the AfD.

 Bautzen and Görlitz are no-brainers. Meißen and Sächsische-Schweiz-Osterzgebirge could differe between well-off suburbs and the periphery, but have DSU heritage and all. Mittelsachsen seems culturally more likely for me than the Erzgebirge, but that's more gut feeling

I don't think it will be in the district which comprises mostly of Dresden north of the Elbe - which is around 80% of the districts electorate, and some suburbs. The Dresden parts are either "left-alternative (Neustadt, Hechtviertel), socially Mixed "Gründerzeit" quarters (Pieschen) ore well of (Weißer Hirsch), so probably no AfD-fortresses, the attached communities of the Bautzen district don't seem big enough to put them in second place

Of course, it is hard to extrapolate regional and local patterns with a change of the vote percentage from 7 to 18 percent for one party

[Yeahsayyeah]

"Wir Deutsche" is actually terrible German...

[Yeahsayyeah]

So actually he told them not to vote. That's the only reading that makes at least a little bit of sense.

[Yeahsayyeah]

So actually he told them not to vote. That's the only reading that makes at least a little bit of sense.

Or they are to vote for the BIG, the German branch of the AKP.

 
 
That will be very hard since the BIG is not running in a single state.

There is another splinter party of conservative Turkish Germans with ties to the AKP, though, the Allianz Deutscher Demokraten (sic!), that is running in NRW. They got about 0.1 per cent in the last state election.

[Yeahsayyeah]

No, the CSU is a seperate party and so the five per cent threshold would apply. But the exemtion, that you get proportionally represented if you win at least three direct seats would work in favour for them. So there is no chance in the forseeable future that the CSU is not in the Bundestag. And in the European Parliament election, there is no threshold anymore.

In 2005 WASG did not compete seperately, but WASG candidates ran on the "Linke.PDS" lists in east and west.

[Yeahsayyeah]

By the way, shouldn't we have a new thread now?

[Yeahsayyeah]

Jamaica would not have a majority without the CSU. Seehofer tries to push the price for this coalition up, but they won't split in the end. New elections could backfire badly if they really try this stunt. And the long-term ramifications would be absolutely unclear. I don't think it would desirable for the CSU to lose their status as the conservative Bavaria regionalist party.

The thing is, that pressure for SPD and Greens would be high in an Union split scenario to form some "government of stability". The irony is that CSU prefers to govern with SPD over governing with the greens, so they would like to rejoin a grand coalition, but this would not happen if they threaten to split, so this is not a wise move. The CDU leadership would have every right to say "just stay out, you left deliberately"

[Yeahsayyeah]

The parliamentary AfD group in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag has split. 4 "moderate" MPs have left and want to form their own faction.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Rumours go, that Petry has purchased the domain "dieblauen.de" several months ago. Which would be quite hillarious as "blau" does not only mean the colour but is also a colloquial term for beeing severely drunk.

As far as the coalition building is concerned Merkel has invited both FDP and Greens and the SPD.
CSU demanded talks to the CDU before any other talks and they still insist on their "refugee cap" to be part of any coalition agreement (that would actually let any coalition talks fail, obviously).

[Yeahsayyeah]

Cowardish merkelism as usual. Like the re-installation of Kauder as parliamentary group leader.