NY-19: GOP opponent drops out; Hall's "still the one."

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Aw.  He'd have lost anyway, but still.  Damn shame.

Here's hoping Hall will get swept out in the 2010 / 2014 / ? anti-Democrat wave, then.

He is likely to be heavily protected by the 2012 redistricting. 

Are there any GOP seats around NY-19 anymore to make that possible?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I guess my only point here is that Bush carried the district by 8 points.  To make Hall "heavily protected," one would think you'd need to swap a heck of a lot of voters out.  Kerry won NY-22 by 8, so I don't think Democrats are going to want to experiment with pushing that district significantly to the right when Hinchey turns 70 next year.  That district has got to come open before 2022.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Aw.  He'd have lost anyway, but still.  Damn shame.

Here's hoping Hall will get swept out in the 2010 / 2014 / ? anti-Democrat wave, then.

He is likely to be heavily protected by the 2012 redistricting. 

Are there any GOP seats around NY-19 anymore to make that possible?

Hinchey is safe in NY-22, and Lowey is very safe in NY-18. The district won't be pushed down into the Bronx, but the Democratic-leaning areas around New City may replace a good chunk of Orange County. Not a big change, but enough to make Hall safer while leaving both Lowey and Hinchey safe.

http://www.redistrictinggame.org/

Unlike in that game, incumbents aren't "happy" when you turn their safe districts into ones that they can with with 52–53%.