Ayotte should be up by double digits right now. Hassan hasn't even started campaigning and Republicans usually do very well in the early polls. Leans D.
TN, don't take this the wrong way, but you're really not making much sense. You're trying to pull things out of your ass to make this Lean D. Any logical conclusion would be that this is a toss-up at the moment. Certainly you could be projecting into the future, and that's fine, though it doesn't make much sense that Pennsylvania would be Likely R if that's the case.
I have never claimed that PA is Likely R. Never. It's still an uphill climb for the GOP, but it is certainly more winnable than NH. Just because Larry Sabato says that NH is an elastic state, that doesn't make it true. The Hassan-Ayotte race may be a Toss-up at the moment and Ayotte may just barely survive (with 48%/49% of the vote) if she runs a perfect campaign (her gender will certainly play a huge role as well), but I think all female Hillary voters will support Hassan in the end.
You colored it as Likely R in your most recent post in the senate predictions thread.
Yeah, but I was talking about the presidential race. It's true that I've rated the PA Senate race Likely R - and for good reasons, too. I'll probably move NH from Leans D to Toss-up soon, though.
I went and saw the post, and there was nothing about the presidential race. There's really no justification for PA being Likely R. Its less elastic than the nation, and the Democratic presidential candidate will give the Democratic senatorial candidate a high floor. Even if its something like the Governor race in 2010, PA should at the most be Lean R unless Sestak or McGinty kills someone.
Don't mean to be hard on you, it just doesn't make much sense to me.
