The absentee/early vote thread

[psychprofessor]

Meanwhile, we can all but officially put NV in Clinton's EV #:

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Yes, NV has been over for Trump. I'd like to see Cortez-Masto pull through, though.

[The Other Castro]

If Nevada really is out, Trump needs to win Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, or Colorado. Not happening.

[psychprofessor]

Huge move in Ohio for the Dems

OH: Big Dem surge Sat/Sun. Franklin vote only 0.9% behind '12 (was 6.7% Oct 20) and Cuyahoga is 1.9% down on '12 (was '4.9%)
https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/793065727397879809

Frankin County moving almost to parity is significant because that's Ohio State so the college kids were voting this weekend. Bonier expects early voting turnout in both counties to exceed 2012. Possible Comey effect firing up Dems?

Yes, looks like EV in Ohio for DEMS will surpass 2012

Tom Bonier @tbonier
@RogersBIGFAN Yes. If the current trend continues through this week, Dems will be ahead of '12. Big if still.

[The Other Castro]

Taniel ‏@Taniel  30s31 seconds ago
27% of all Colorado voters have now returned their ballots—& in this equally divided state, registered Dems have a 3.6% edge among voters.

Taniel ‏@Taniel  1m1 minute ago
Colorado's turnout rate so far (via @NickRiccardi's raw #s):
—among registered Dems: 33%
—among registered Reps: 30%
—among others: just 20%

[Confused Democrat]

If Nevada really is out, Trump needs to win Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, or Colorado. Not happening.

I think the Trump campaign is trying to flip Pennsylvania but failing miserably. They've just about given up on all of the other states you listed.

[psychprofessor]

Taniel ‏@Taniel  30s31 seconds ago
27% of all Colorado voters have now returned their ballots—& in this equally divided state, registered Dems have a 3.6% edge among voters.

Taniel ‏@Taniel  1m1 minute ago
Colorado's turnout rate so far (via @NickRiccardi's raw #s):
—among registered Dems: 33%
—among registered Reps: 30%
—among others: just 20%

(((Harry Enten))) ‏@ForecasterEnten  10m10 minutes ago
(((Harry Enten))) Retweeted Taniel
Give a little context here. In 2014 (a strong GOP year in CO), GOP had a 7 pt edge in early voters.(((Harry Enten))) added,
Taniel @Taniel
27% of all Colorado voters have now returned their ballots—& in this equally divided state, registered Dems have a 3.6% edge among voters.
0 replies 12 retweets 33 likes

[Tender Branson]

In LA on the other hand, the early vote is already 102% of that in 2012.

Registered Dems have a 5% advantage there among the early vote (it was D+17 in 2012 and D+30 in 2008).

[JerryArkansas]

In LA on the other hand, the early vote is already 102% of that in 2012.

Registered Dems have a 5% advantage there among the early vote (it was D+17 in 2012 and D+30 in 2008).

Dixicrates who have finally changed voter registration.

[Speed of Sound]

Taniel ‏@Taniel  30s31 seconds ago
27% of all Colorado voters have now returned their ballots—& in this equally divided state, registered Dems have a 3.6% edge among voters.

Taniel ‏@Taniel  1m1 minute ago
Colorado's turnout rate so far (via @NickRiccardi's raw #s):
—among registered Dems: 33%
—among registered Reps: 30%
—among others: just 20%

(((Harry Enten))) ‏@ForecasterEnten  10m10 minutes ago
(((Harry Enten))) Retweeted Taniel
Give a little context here. In 2014 (a strong GOP year in CO), GOP had a 7 pt edge in early voters.

Taniel @Taniel
27% of all Colorado voters have now returned their ballots—& in this equally divided state, registered Dems have a 3.6% edge among voters.

i.e., Colorado is also finished. If Nevada and Colorado are settled, there's no road.

[ApatheticAustrian]

and i am sure all of us remember obama's dominating win of LA in 08.

[Goldwater64]

ARIZONA:

Monmouth University shows 40% have already voted and Clinton leads by 10 for that subgroup.
Of course voters tend to overstate whether they have already voted so that number is likely less.

+- 4.9% moe
monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_AZ_102516/

YouGov also did a poll showing 40% already voted and the race is tied at 46% for that subgroup.

+-4.3% moe
today.yougov.com/news/2016/10/30/key-battlegrounds-tight-clinton-maintains-eight-po/

Quite a polling difference

[BoAtlantis]

Updated NC status

http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/

[Classic Conservative]

Rubio Early Votes!
https://mobile.twitter.com/olivia_pc/status/793116461468356608

[BoAtlantis]

CO #earlyvote update: trick or treat for Reps:
Treat: Dem lead +3.6 points (was 3.9 on Fri)
Trick: 3,562 more Dems returned ballots

[bilaps]

CO #earlyvote update: trick or treat for Reps:
Treat: Dem lead +3.6 points (was 3.9 on Fri)
Trick: 3,562 more Dems returned ballots

Wow, McDonald is a complete idiot. His post election tweet would be something like this. Trick or treat for republicans. Treat: Trump wins presidency. Trick: There were some votes cast for Clinton. I'm joking, but this tweet was so partisan.

[The Other Castro]

CO #earlyvote update: trick or treat for Reps:
Treat: Dem lead +3.6 points (was 3.9 on Fri)
Trick: 3,562 more Dems returned ballots

Wow, McDonald is a complete idiot. His post election tweet would be something like this. Trick or treat for republicans. Treat: Trump wins presidency. Trick: There were some votes cast for Clinton. I'm joking, but this tweet for so partisan.

it's a Halloween joke. Standard good news bad news update. Also McDonald is one of the leading sources of early vote information.

[JerryArkansas]

CO #earlyvote update: trick or treat for Reps:
Treat: Dem lead +3.6 points (was 3.9 on Fri)
Trick: 3,562 more Dems returned ballots

Wow, McDonald is a complete idiot. His post election tweet would be something like this. Trick or treat for republicans. Treat: Trump wins presidency. Trick: There were some votes cast for Clinton. I'm joking, but this tweet for so partisan.

it's a Halloween joke. Standard good news bad news update. Also McDonald is one of the leading sources of early vote information.

It's a troll, don't engage him.

[Speed of Sound]

Rather than McDonald's tweet, some additional clarity about CO's current situation:

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https://twitter.com/geoffreyvs/status/793120605147164676

[psychprofessor]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  23m23 minutes ago
North Carolina demographic characteristics of unaffiliated (no party reg) #earlyvote (as of 10/30)

This demo breakdown for unaffiliated in NC looks awful for Trump. Perhaps one of the reasons why EV polling is so big for Clinton in NC.

[Speed of Sound]

The EV numbers in TX are still through the roof, and in fact haven't slowed at all:



https://twitter.com/eramshaw/status/793098394080190464

[HillOfANight]

http://www.insight-us.org/blog/african-american-early-voting-is-way-down-in-north-carolina-why-is-that/

A look at why Black turnout is down in North Carolina. Biggest drivers are a reduction in sites (72% vs 2012) and hurricane related issues (79% vs 2012). Even besides those, it's 91% in unimpaired counties, and 82% in total.

[Brittain33]

The EV numbers in TX are still through the roof, and in fact haven't slowed at all:



https://twitter.com/eramshaw/status/793098394080190464

As a Democrat, it's hard to feel good about the Collin County numbers. Even if we're counting "college educated" as a good thing, if Collin County numbers were low that would be an unequivocal positive sign for Dems.

[Ozymandias]

Comparison of 2016 to 2012:

First Vote-By-Mail (VBM)

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith  12m12 minutes ago
At this time in 2012 in FL (Oct 28)

VBM cast:
8.3% black
9.5% Hispanic
78.1% white

(2016 numbers:)

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith  27m27 minutes ago
Of 1.85m VBM votes cast in FL:
8% cast by blacks
13% by Hispanics
75% by whites

Next Early-In-Person (EIP)

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith  13m13 minutes ago
At this time in 2012 in FL (Oct 28)

EIP cast:
24% black
10.4% Hispanic
59.8% white

(2016 numbers:)

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith  33m33 minutes ago
Of 1.77m EIP votes cast in FL:
15% cast by blacks
15% by Hispanics
65% by whites

[Ozymandias]

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith  27m27 minutes ago
Current FL active voter demos:

13.4% black
15.6% Hispanic
64% white

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith  33m33 minutes ago
Of the 3.6m votes cast in FL (EIP & VBM) thru Sunday:
11.3% by blacks
13.5% by Hispanics
70.3% by whites

[Dr. Arch]

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith  27m27 minutes ago
Current FL active voter demos:

13.4% black
15.6% Hispanic
64% white

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith  33m33 minutes ago
Of the 3.6m votes cast in FL (EIP & VBM) thru Sunday:
11.3% by blacks
13.5% by Hispanics
70.3% by whites

Good?