The 1,000 Districts Series

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Minnesota.




%
DISTRICT 1: NORTHWEST MINNESOTA: Lean D seat due to a strong D anchor in Bemidji. 50% Obama and 50.2% D average.
DISTRICT 2: NORTHEAST MINNESOTA-DULUTH: Safe D seat. This is the core of MN-08 and wouldn't have fallen even in 2008. 62.5% Obama/66.1% D.
DISTRICT 3: WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA: Pretty heavily leaning R seat, 53.7% both for McCain and R average.
DISTRICT 4: ST. CLOUD-ELK RIVER: Conservative areas around St. Cloud and the leadin to the exurbs creates a basically Safe R seat. 53.5% McCain/54.6% R.
DISTRICT 5: CHISAGO-ISANTI-ANOKA: Safe R exurban seat. 55.2% McCain/55.3% R. BTW this is the closest seat to where Bachmann lives that she could be elected in, though not guaranteed to win the primary.
DISTRICT 6: SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA: Lean R seat, 51.9% McCain/53% R, but a surprisingly independent minded area.
DISTRICT 7: SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA-MANKATO: 51.5% Obama/52.9% D, definitely a Lean D seat due to a strong Dem anchor in my old home. Walz lives here and would be safe, he's popular in the whole district.
DISTRICT 8: SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA-ROCHESTER: Definitely Lean D now that Rochester has flipped, the surrounding areas are also D. 52.8% Obama/52.1% D
DISTRICT 9: WEST METRO-CARVER: Safe R exurban seat. 56.5% McCain/59.2% R
DISTRICT 10: DAKOTA SOUTH-GOODHUE: The county and direction at the beginning swapped to avoid confusion. 49.4% McCain/52.3% R. Pretty much safe R with the type of Republicans here though.
DISTRICT 11: DAKOTA NORTH-WASHINGTON SOUTH: 54.4% Obama/53% D, definitely a Lean D seat at worst.
DISTRICT 12: HENNEPIN WEST: Obama won this 49.4/49, but almost certainly would vote R, 53.2% R average. Paulsen doesn't live here, but this would be the best seat for him to run in.
DISTRICT 13: HENNEPIN SOUTH: Safe D seat thanks to the bit of south Minneapolis in it. That area is generally affluent and not too different from the surrounding areas, basically a dream latte liberal district. Paulsen lives here in Eden Prairie but would have no chance. 61.7% Obama/58.9% D
DISTRICT 14: MINNEAPOLIS: Duh. Safe D. 81.4% Obama by the way.
DISTRICT 15: HENNEPIN CENTRAL-NORTH: Strong D inner suburbs for the most part, 61.1% Obama/60.2% D, so safe D.
DISTRICT 16: RAMSEY NORTH: A not exactly hopeless district for the Republicans, but they shouldn't get their hopes up. 54% Obama/53.6% D.
DISTRICT 17: ST. PAUL: Also Duh. Contains the whole city, some inner suburbs and that sliver of Maplewood to the east. 74.4% Obama.

That means it's most likely 10D-7R.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

South Dakota



DISTRICT 1: SIOUX FALLS-SOUTHEAST: 50.2% McCain, probably around 52-53% Romney. Swing district most likely.
DISTRICT 2: EAST-CENTRAL: 51.5% McCain, though the swing to Romney was no doubt bigger than in the first, probably around 55% Romney. Usually R, might be a bit more swingy for a more moderate Democrat than the first though.
DISTRICT 3: RAPID CITY-WEST: Safe R seat, 58% McCain, over 60% Romney no doubt, though 15.5% Native VAP.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's Connecticut:



I took out county lines, because they don't matter (aside from geography, so they are in some names).

DISTRICT 1: STAMFORD-GOLD COAST: 59.3% Obama, probably around 55% against Romney. Despite some of the most Republican towns in Connecticut this still has the high minority population in Stamford preventing it from being any worse than Lean D.
DISTRICT 2: BRIDGEPORT-SOUTH FAIRFIELD: 67.1% Obama. Safe D.
DISTRICT 3: DANBURY-NORTH FAIRFIELD: 52.5% Obama, so probably won by Romney. Connecticut Democrats are better at winning these type of districts than you'd expect though, so call it Lean R.
DISTRICT 4: LITCHFIELD: 52.2% Obama, also won by Romney. See above, Lean R.
DISTRICT 5: WATERBURY-NORTH NEW HAVEN: 57.2% Obama, probably similar numbers in 2012. Call it Lean D.
DISTRICT 6: SOUTHWEST NEW HAVEN: 68.9% Obama, Safe D.
DISTRICT 7: NORTH HARTFORD: 62.2% Obama, probably under 60% Obama in 2012, but it's hard to see it as non-Safe D.
DISTRICT 8: CENTRAL HARTFORD: 73.6% Obama, majority minority and barely majority white (50.4%) in VAP. Safe D.
DISTRICT 9: SOUTH HARTFORD: 62.6% Obama, see District 7.
DISTRICT 10: SOUTH CENTRAL: 58.2% Obama. Less winnable for a Republican now than ten years ago, but we'll call it Likely D.
DISTRICT 11: NEW LONDON-SOUTHWEST: 60.3% Obama, probably just barely under 60% Obama. Someone like Rob Simmons could've won this back when he was in Congress, but today it's probably gone (see McMahon/Murphy numbers), Likely D.
DISTRICT 12: TOLLAND-WINDHAM: 58% Obama. See above, same thing really.

Probably a 10-2 map usually.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

traininthedistance had a map on the first page.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here is Nevada:





DISTRICT 1: DESERT: See the name. Actually includes a chunk of Las Vegas, though not a particularly urban or dense area (as Joe can attest, whether or not a precinct is in Las Vegas proper has very little correlation to how urban it is in Clark County.) 56.8% McCain and Safe R.
DISTRICT 2: HENDERSON-SOUTH CLARK: The name says it all for the description. 50.4% Obama, might've gone narrowly for Romney. 52.7% Republican average. Probably a Lean R seat.
DISTRICT 3: NORTH RENO-SPARKS: The upper half of the Reno metro. 57.9% Obama and 53.2% Democratic average. Definitely a Lean D seat.
DISTRICT 4: SOUTH RENO-LAKE TAHOE: A southern portion of Reno, plus the Republican areas around Lake Tahoe. 51.9% McCain and far stronger for generic Republican (58.2%), Safe R seat.
DISTRICT 5: NORTH LAS VEGAS: Most of the city of the same name, plus some of northern Las Vegas. Majority minority 66.1% Obama Safe D seat.
DISTRICT 6: SUNRISE-EAST METRO: Hispanic majority seat (even in VAP), 69.3% Obama and Safe D.
DISTRICT 7: WEST LAS VEGAS: Whiter, more suburban neighborhoods. 54.9% Obama, but he probably won in 2012 too, 52.8% Democratic average. A true swing district.
DISTRICT 8: SPRING VALLEY-ENTERPRISE: A more heavily minority area (lots of Asians for some reason), 59.6% Obama, 55.3% generic D. Probably Lean D.
DISTRICT 9: THE STRIP: Majority minority and 65.4% Obama. Safe D.

So basically a 5-3-1 map.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

New Mexico




DISTRICT 1: NORTHWEST: All sorts of territory here. Oil and gas territory, Hispanic areas, lots of Reservations (plurality Native), just about everything that exists in the state is here. 55.3% Obama and just over 50% for a Democratic average. It's hard to see this being anything other than a pure tossup.
DISTRICT 2: SANTA FE-NORTHEAST: A Hispanic majority seat with a bunch of hippies and government workers in Santa Fe too. 73.2% Obama and Safe D.
DISTRICT 3: LAS CRUCES-SOUTHWEST: Hispanic majority and contains the Democratic city of Las Cruces, but some Little Texas and Mormon areas. Overall it's 56.9% Obama and has a 51% Democratic average, knowing how these areas in New Mexico work it's Lean D.
DISTRICT 4: LITTLE TEXAS: And this is how New Mexico can be a swing state and still have so many D districts, the Republicans are all concentrated here. 64.8% McCain, 68.1% Republican average. Safe R.
DISTRICT 5: CENTER: In most states, this would be a strongly R seat. but this is New Mexico. It's a bunch of rural areas and some outgrowth from Albuquerque, but those are Hispanic heavy downtrodden areas, not traditional exurbs, and the rural counties are heavily Hispanic too. Majority Hispanic, 61.1% Obama, 53.1% D average though. So probably a Lean D seat.
DISTRICT 6: RIO RANCHO-NORTH ALBUQUERQUE: The real suburbia of the Albuquerque metro. 51% Obama but 56.9% Republican average, also likely won by Romney. At least a Likely R seat.
DISTRICT 7: ALBUQUERQUE CENTER: The urban district. 64.5% Obama, 57% Democratic average, safe D.

So appears to be 4-2-1 most likely.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm not too concerned about county splits in western states (where the real separations often don't follow county lines), but yeah the Albuquerque split is kind of awkward, I tried to work around it though. Maybe I could follow that outline to see how it goes. It's not really much worse than the current map though that sticks most of Albuquerque in with those rural counties for no real reason.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And here's Maryland:




Obviously as brutal a D gerrymander as they come.

DISTRICT 1: PANHANDLE: With this many districts, this area is immune from gerrymandering. 60.1% McCain and Safe R.
DISTRICT 2: FREDERICK-GERMANTOWN: Kind of a microcosm of the current MD-06, it brings in a traditionally Republican area (though not so Republican today, at least around Frederick proper) with western MontCo. 55.9% Obama, Lean D.
DISTRICT 3: CARROLL-WEST BALTCO: This looks like a Republican district on a map, but it's misleading, it includes enough black suburbs to tilt it to the D side. And don't worry about any krazen-esque accusations of racism or some rogue black legislators complaining, I made a fix for that later on. Still the seat's only 52.2% Obama, so it's not utterly unwinnable for the Republicans, probably Lean D. Of course the very popular Ruppersberger lives here.
DISTRICT 4: STATE LINE-NORTH SHORE: Another Republican pack district. 61.9% McCain and Safe R.
DISTRICT 5: SOUTH SHORE: This is a 55.4% McCain seat, but local Democrats can do surprisingly well in this area. Of course Andy Harris can't be nominated here either. We'll call it Likely R.
DISTRICT 6: EAST BALTCO-HARFORD: This district is based around an interesting region that most people don't notice in Maryland because the county lines obscure it, most areas immediately east of Balitmore voted for McCain and probably Romney, but prefer Democrats on lower levels (almost all D in the state legislature), and a lot of these precincts actually had a swing TOWARD McCain 2008, even some Kerry/McCain precincts. Not all the rednecks in Maryland are on the shore or panhandle obviously. Still this seat contains some Baltimore proper precincts to anchor it, 50.7% Obama and 55.9% Democratic average. Most likely a Lean D seat, though I'll admit it would've fallen in 2010.
DISTRICT 7: NORTH BALTIMORE-TOWSON: White parts of Baltimore plus some swing/R suburban areas. 56.6% Obama, over 60% Democratic average. Basically safe D. Sarbanes lives here.
DISTRICT 8: SOUTH BALTIMORE-DUNDALK: Similar to the above, although it contains Dundalk, the epitome of District 6-esque areas. Still 57.6% D, basically safe D.
DISTRICT 9: BOWIE-ANNE ARUNDEL: A combo of Annapolis, the Republican areas to its north, and some relatively white parts of Prince George's County. 52.5% Obama, higher Democratic average, probably Lean D. Democrats should definitely run someone from Anne Arundel here.
DISTRICT 10: CENTRAL BALTIMORE AND WEST: This is kind of a hard one to name. But basically it's most of Balitmore's black neighborhoods plus some suburbs, most white, some Republican. A 72.1% black VAP safe D seat.
DISTRICT 11: WEST BALTIMORE-WEST HOWARD: And here's the seat I alluded to earlier. The reason District 10 is so erose is so here can get many of the black precincts, the resulting seat is 50.6% black VAP, so the black precincts in District 3 don't deny a black majority seat. And it also absorbs the Republican western half of Howard County as well. Safe D.
DISTRICT 12: GAITHERSBURG-ROCKVILLE-NORTH MONTGOMERY: Whites, blacks, Hispanics and Asians are all over 10% here. Still majority white. 66.1% Obama, Safe D.
DISTRICT 13: POTOMAC-BETHESDA: Same as above, but blacks are around 8%. Safe D of course. Actually more white than district 12 but more Democrat (over 71% Obama.)
DISTRICT 14: WESTERN MONTGOMERY: Same as district 12, except all races except Asians are over 20%, possibly the most diverse district in the country outside of California, Hawaii and NYC. Safe D and over 80% Obama. I think Chris Van Hollen lives here (either here or district 13.) BTW anyone else realize people like Van Hollen and Donna Edwards and NOVA politicians luck out in not having to get a second home?
DISTRICT 15: COLUMBIA-SOUTH GATE: The name more means "from here to here" rather than "based around these areas". 61.4% Obama, safe D.
DISTRICT 16: NORTH PRINCE GEORGE'S-NORTHWEST ANNE ARUNDEL: Most of the white parts of Prince George's County, still plurality black. Primaries could be interesting here, but not the general election at 76.4% Obama. Safe D.
DISTRICT 17: CENTRAL PRINCE GEORGE'S: And here we have both the blackest and safest D seat in the state. 76.7% Black VAP, 95.7% Obama.
DISTRICT 18: SOUTH PRINCE GEORGE'S-WESTERN SHORE: The name says it all. These Republican areas get crammed into this 53.8% Black VAP seat. Safe D.
DISTRICT 19: CHARLES-ST. MARY'S: Charles County anchors this one for the Democrats thanks to black spillover from Prince George's that is still coming. 55.4% Obama, at worst Likely D. Steny Hoyer lives here anyway.

So 16-3.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ha, our four outer districts are practically the same. Even the same colors/numbering.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This state turned out a bit more interesting than one would think:



DISTRICT 1: DESOTO-OXFORD: Oddly this isn't that Republican compared to how you'd expect a district based around Memphis suburbia to be, probably thanks to the fact it's now picking up black spillover from Memphis and is 26.2% black VAP. Still 59.7% McCain and Safe R.
DISTRICT 2: NORTH DELTA: 61.5% black VAP...and 63.3% Obama. Ugh. Safe D regardless.
DISTRICT 3: NORTHEAST: The least black district but also the only one that still has a significant number of white Democrats. Only 16.5% black VAP, but Obama got almost 30% here. Regardless while this would have historically been a conservative Democrat seat, it's now close to Safe R, at least until Obama leaves office. That last bit makes it Likely R.
DISTRICT 4: JACKSON-YAZOO CITY: The most descriptive name would be "The black part of Jackson plus some black rural areas" but that won't work. Obviously still safe D, 64.8% black VAP/67.7% Obama.
DISTRICT 5: RANKIN-RIDGELAND: The white part of Jackson plus some white Jackson suburbs, 71.6% McCain, Safe R.
DISTRICT 6: SOUTH DELTA-SOUTH CENTRAL: Majority black, but only plurality black VAP, (49% to 47.8% white) and 54.4% Obama. That means if black turnout ever craters it could flip, for that reason I'll call it Likely D. Most likely would end up with a rather conservative black Democrat ala Sanford Bishop representing it though.
DISTRICT 7: COLUMBUS-CENTRAL: Here's a white district, but still 36.3% black VAP and McCain only won it with 53.7%. That makes it a Lean R seat, wouldn't have been won in 2010 but in the future a conservative white Democrat might manage to win it. Maybe.
DISTRICT 8: EAST STATE LINE: This district is only slightly less black than the 7th (31.1%), but significantly stronger for McCain (64.3%), I guess thanks to where Harry went to school the 7th does have some white Democrats after all. Still this is a Safe R seat.
DISTRICT 9: HATTIESBURG-SOUTH CENTRAL: 72.2% McCain, less than 20% black VAP, not much to see here. Safe R.
DISTRICT 10: GULF COAST: Perhaps unsurprisingly, this district does clearly have a non-negligible number of white Democrats (36.7% Obama in a district that's 21.4% black VAP), but it's still too white and Republican to be winnable. Safe R.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I like that map better since it doesn't split up the rural counties on the shore of Lake Superior and the district around Walworth isn't quite as ugly (though as train noted that area is going to be ugly no matter what.)

Although since the Republicans controlled the redistricting, train's map is probably more likely.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's Indiana:




I took into account that Republicans controlled the redistricting, but with their rather mild map it probably wouldn't be too different from a non-partisan map, since the Dem packs either way end up as the only likely to vote Democratic seats. Of course wave years can be brutal in Indiana.

DISTRICT 1: NORTH LAKE: Majority minority but plurality white. Regardless obviously a safe D seat, 74.7% Obama and he probably got similar numbers in 2012 since there wasn't much of a swing here.
DISTRICT 2: CENTRAL LAKE-PORTER: Won by Obama by 10 points in 2008 (54.7-44.4) and the anemic swing here means he probably won it in 2012 too. That probably puts it at Lean D.
DISTRICT 3: LAFAYETTE-STATE LINE: Obama won it in 2008 with under 50% (49.7), but Romney probably got around 56%. Probably Likely R, with the way Indiana works it wouldn't survive a wave.
DISTRICT 4: MICHIANA-WARSAW: Despite containing LaPorte County, this area stretches to some very conservative areas in the north-central part of the state, and ended up being won by McCain with 50.7 to 47.8 Obama. Romney might've broke 57% here. Even Mourdock might've won this seat, so Safe R.
DISTRICT 5: SOUTH BEND-ELKHART: 58.8% Obama in 2008, probably around 53% Obama in 2012. Which is enough to make it Likely D in Indiana.
DISTRICT 6: NORTHEAST INDIANA: 59.3% McCain in 2008, Romney in the mid-60s, Safe R.
DISTRICT 7: FORT WAYNE: Narrow victory for McCain in 2008 (49.9-49.4), so probably mid-50s for Romney, at worst Likely R. Even Mourdock might've won this district, the GOP base is HARD.
DISTRICT 8: MARION-ALLEN COUNTY: McCain won over 60% in 2008, Safe R.
DISTRICT 9: NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA: Despite a lot of Democrats in Kokomo and Logansport that's not enough to even flip their counties. 55.6% McCain, Romney probably got over 60%, and even Mourdock likely won the seat because of the Indianapolis exurbs. Safe R.
DISTRICT 10: ANDERSON-MUNCIE: 52.1% Obama-46.6% McCain in 2008, Romney probably got around 51% and Mourdock got crushed. We'll call it a tossup.
DISTRICT 11: TERRE HAUTE-WEST CENTRAL INDIANA: Another narrow McCain victory (49.6-48.9), meaning Romney got at worst mid-50s. Donnelly probably won it though, so we'll call it Likely R. Someone like Brad Ellsworth could easily win here.
DISTRICT 12: BLOOMINGTON-COLUMBUS: Obviously Obama won this seat, but only 53.7%-45.2% McCain. Like district 10, probably Romney with around 51%. Polarized seat though and it seems that Donnelly probably won only relatively narrowly, so we'll say Lean R.
DISTRICT 13: SOUTHWEST INDIANA: A bunch of rural areas around Evansville, lots of historically Dem but 55.3% McCain, no doubt over 60% Romney, and even Mourdock might've won here. So probably Safe R.
DISTRICT 14: EVANSVILLE: Even McCain won here (51.2-47.8), and Romney was no doubt in the high 50s, and Donnelly-Mourdock appears to be a dead heat. But even this seat wouldn't be wave proof, Brad Ellsworth could win it, even after his 2010 Senate run (and he's from Evansville.) So Likely R.
DISTRICT 15: OHIO RIVER: This seat manages to combine blue collar suburbs of Louisville with uber-partisan R Cincinnati suburbs without making it look like a gerrymander. 53.9% McCain, but the swing was kind of anemic here, Romney probably got around only around 56-57%. Still that's the cusp of Safe R, and Mourdock-Donnelly was close, so Likely R.
DISTRICT 16: RICHMOND-SHELBY-HANCOCK: McCain just shy of 60% (59.9%) and the uber-partisan Indianapolis exurbs make this Safe R.
DISTRICT 17: HAMILTON COUNTY: See above, McCain got 59.6%. Another safe R seat.
DISTRICT 18: MORGAN-JOHNSON: 60.9% McCain, and Romney was nearing 70%. This might be the safest seat in the state despite the moderate sliver of Indianapolis. Safe R.
DISTRICT 19: HENDRICKS-WEST MARION: I'm saying "Marion" instead of Indianapolis because it's not really the real city region. Still that strip is kind of minority heavy, and the seat's under 80% white, just over 81% white VAP, and 53.1% McCain. Probably around 57% Romney, but also voted for Mourdock, so Safe R.
DISTRICT 20: CIRCLE CITY NORTH: This is plurality black and still majority minority in VAP. Obama's best district in the state, likely both times with 76.7%. Safe D.
DISTRICT 21: CIRCLE CITY SOUTH-EAST MARION: The weird shape is to avoid the minority areas running across the center of the city. This district is still almost 20% black, 61.5% Obama in 2008, and likely just under 60% for him in 2012 with the weak swing. Basically the white liberal seat of Indianapolis. Safe D.

So 5 at least Lean D seats, 15 at least Lean R seats, and one tossup. But the Democrats could win up to 10 seats in a wave.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Are you posting an image or the map file itself?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Which is funny because my computer won't display anything from that Photobucket but my iPod will. Or perhaps it's an Opera vs. Safari issue.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

.drf is not an image file. it's what opens the maps in the app, but it doesn't transfer to an image of the maps.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Interesting that your district 2 isn't too different from mine. I guess what's obvious in a Dem gerrymander in that region is also logical from a neutral perspective too.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So Oregon is one of the few states where the population distribution actually favors the Democrats.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Massachusetts is actually a pretty good example, there's plenty of 60% Obama counties and regions that if you divided into nine fair districts would have at least one Republican district. Marion County, IN for example is pretty comparable in Obama numbers, but it'd clearly have at least one safe R seat, likely at least two, and at least one other seat winnable by a Republican. Wayne County, MI is ten points more D, and it'd most likely have a Republican seat in a nine-district layout. Here in Hennepin County we're about two points more D and have seven county commissioner districts, and if the elections were partisan one seat would be safe R, and another somewhere between lean R and tossup. Massachusetts would require a pretty epic gerrymander to get any seat below Lean D.

I was also going to mention Iowa and Colorado, but those are probably more like a wash with neither party having a real advantage. Actually Iowa would probably be a slight Dem benefit due to a rather obvious R vote sink area.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Montana might be slightly beneficial to the Democrats, at worst even. It's kind of tricky to judge and depends a lot on the election.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

How is that 42 Lean R? It was no doubt won by Obama in 2012 as well, and maybe even Kerry.