Wisconsin Megathread

[MT Treasurer]

Results of the new Marquette poll:

Bradley: 40.9%
Kloppenburg: 36.0%

https://t.co/eifW2aSx7L

[MT Treasurer]

2% OF PRECINCTS REPORTING

Rebecca Bradley (R, inc.)   21,671   64%
JoAnne Kloppenburg (D)   12,440   36%

[MT Treasurer]

I'd say that based on those county by county results, Bradley is now favored to win.

[MT Treasurer]

Burke was actually considered a pretty good candidate for Ds in 2014, IIRC. IMO, this race is Leans R until proven otherwise. I don't see Walker losing unless it's an absolute Democratic wave year.

[MT Treasurer]

I only see him beating Walker in a big Democratic wave year. But then again, maybe he thinks he has a better chance of winning statewide than in his old district?

Also, I agree with Flying Spenstar. It's the same reason why someone like Ron Johnson did better than Tommy Thompson in WI. It's not really a moderate state by any means.

If Ron Kind and Tammy Baldwin share a ballot, and Kind significantly outperforms Baldwin, or does about the same (considering Baldwin has the advantage of incumbency and Kind does not) then the mode of thinking that WI isn't a moderate state needs to be challenged, and that's very good to know.

If, on the other hand, Baldwin does significantly better than Kind, then your conventional wisdom holds. And I really want to find out. It would be the equivalent of McCaskill surviving but Donnelly and Heitkamp getting defeated, a blow to the way we think about these states and these politicians.

Totally agreed. I think this would be a better test if Kander were running instead of McCaskill, though. McCaskill (like Blunt, in many ways) has her own issues and is really just a terrible fit for her state. But generally speaking it does seem to be the case that more and more voters are rejecting "moderate" candidates or don't really care that they are moderates (think of Mark Kirk, Evan Bayh, etc.).

Of course there's also the possibility that both Kind and Baldwin lose (which would probably mean that WI has pulled a reverse VA on Dems) or that they both win (which would likely mean that 2018 is a big Democratic wave) by somewhat similar margins. But if anyone can win in WI in a Trump midterm, it's Baldwin. A Baldwin vs. Hovde race will be fascinating to watch, as Hovde basically resembles Ron Johnson and Baldwin can fire up the progressive base. WI is quite a fascinating state politically.

[MT Treasurer]

^Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the problem basically that Democrats who are doing well in the WOW counties usually underperform significantly in the rural areas (Clinton) and that Democrats who are doing well in the traditionally Democratic rural parts of the state are suffering losses in the WOW counties (Feingold), right? Isn't this somewhat similar to the problem the VA GOP has - what appeals to rural and Southwest VA hurts you in NoVA/Richmond/etc. and vice versa.

[MT Treasurer]

Whoa, I just checked the results... Johnson won the WOW counties by 38 points (68%-30%), 46 points (72%-26%) and 32 points (65%-33%).

Trump only won them by 27 points (60%-33%), 40 points (67%-27%) and 19 points (56%-37%). Johnson also outperformed Trump by quite a bit in Green Bay and Milwaukee. The difference in Madison was negligible. All of that was more than enough to make up for the fact that he underperformed Trump in rural/western WI. Johnson still did much better in those areas than he did in 2010, though.

[MT Treasurer]

Democrats need to be a bit more patient here. Walker (and Baldwin, for that matter) will be seriously challenged, and even if a random State Representative runs, they will get at least 45% of the vote. I predict Walker wins after a tough fight, though. Lean R for now.

[MT Treasurer]

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Yikes, his seat is now gone for Republicans IMO. Not feeling great about the Senate race either, honestly. Looks like WI Dems will get a lucky break for once in 2018, like VA Republicans did in 2009 and 2010. Walker should be very worried about all of this.

[MT Treasurer]

Oh, I think Tammy Baldwin will win. But the Supreme Court is a non-partisan spring election often done by itself. Its dynamics could be very isolated from the larger context.

Hopefully you're right, but my impression is that the fact that the election is "non-partisan" actually helps Democrats quite a bit. Also, it's an off-year special election, which means Democrats should do better than in a normal midterm. I'm just worried that this will turn out like all those PA Supreme Court elections, but we'll see.

Btw: Who do you think would be the strongest Republican challenger to Baldwin? Eric Hovde? I think the race can be won by the GOP, but a lot would have to go right for them to have a chance.

[MT Treasurer]

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Full results: http://law.marquette.edu/poll/

[MT Treasurer]

Marist did terribly in the Midwest in 2016, and Marquette showed much better numbers for Walker. He definitely isn't "finished", lol.

[MT Treasurer]

Marist did terribly in the Midwest in 2016

Which states? I couldn't find any for Wisconsin/Michigan. There are ones for Illinois in like March and one for Iowa in August. The IA poll didn't seem that out of step with what you might expect then.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=242977.0

Also:

It should be noted that NBC News/Marist had Hillary winning PA by 12 points in mid-October.

But yeah, they didn't poll WI in 2016. It was Marquette that showed Clinton up 6 in November, not NBC/Marist.

Look, I'm not saying he won't face a tough reelection battle, but it's way too early to count him out. Saying that there is no way he can win and basing it on numbers from a pollster who did poorly in 2016 and doing so 15 months before the election is ridiculous. WI isn't IL, as I'm sure Ron Johnson will tell you.

[MT Treasurer]

I know this isn't a thread for discussing the Senate race, but thoughts on this?

Mostly hype/hot air IMO, but kinda odd how much conservative groups are spending here.

[MT Treasurer]

I don’t see a way for conservatives to hold this seat, honestly.

[MT Treasurer]

Screnock doing well in the Green Bay area, but only 18/91 precincts in.

[MT Treasurer]

Dallet is still heavily favored in April, obviously.

[MT Treasurer]

Screnock underperformed Walker in Waukesha County

But outperformed Johnson ’16 (albeit only narrowly).

[MT Treasurer]

Liberals won Brown County!

[MT Treasurer]

Walker approval: 47/47. Was 48/48 in June 2017 and 45/48 in March 2017.