List Senators up in 2016 from most vulnerable to least vulnerable

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Republicans:

1. Johnson
2. Kirk
3. Toomey
4. Burr
5. Ayotte (switch this with #4 if it's an open seat)
6. Rubio (switch this with #5 if it's an open seat)
7. Portman
8. Blunt
9. McCain (When a strong primary challenger enters the race, switch this with #7. If McCain survives the primary, undo the switch. If he loses the primary/retires of his own free will, undo any switches, then switch this with #8 if it's an establishment candidate, or move #5-8 down one and make this the new #5 if it's a teapartier)
10. Isakson
11. Murkowski (primary vulnerability, she's safe in the general. Keep at 11 if she loses the primary to an establishment candidate, if it's a teapartier beating her, move #7-10 down one, make this the new #7.)
12. Coats
13. Paul (If open seat, move #9-12 down one spot, make this the new #9)
14. Crapo (primary vulnerability, the seat is safe in  the general)
15. Boozman (If Beebe runs, if he doesn't the seat is safe)
16. Grassley (If he retires, move #4-14 down one spot, make this the new #4)
17. Vitter (open seat vulnerability, it's safe if Vitter doesn't become governor and still runs for senate reelection)
18. Lee (If a strong primary challenger enters, move #7-16 down one spot, make this the new #7. If Lee wins the primary, undo that action. If he loses the primary, this seat is safe.)
19. Thune (Putting this here in case Sandlin or Brendan Johnson runs. If they don't the seat is Safe.)

Shelby, Moran, Hoeven, Lankford, and Scott are completely safe in the primary, and the seat is completely safe in the general even if they retire.


Democrats:

1. Reid (switch with #2 if Sandoval doesn't run)
2. Bennett
3. Blumenthal
4. Murray
5. Wyden (open seat vulnerability, if Wyden runs again the seat is safe.)
6. Schatz (primary vulnerability, seat is safe in the general)
7. Boxer (open seat vulnerability, if Boxer runs again the seat is safe.)

Mikulski, Schumer, and Leahy are completely safe in the primary, and their seats are safe in the general even if they retire.