Do Dems have any potential in Louisiana down the road?

[ProgressiveModerate]

The state used to be pretty dem and has still had residual Dem down ballot support for a while, though it's obviously been deteriorating fast and JBE is prolly the last Dem governor for a while.

However, the reason I ask is while I was creating a 2008-2020 swing map, Louisiana stood out to me as an unexpected state that actually swung slightly left. Most of that swing was out of the Southwest Part of the state where New Orleans and Baton-Rouge are.

Louisiana tends to be mixed in with other demographically similalr deep South states such as AR, MS, and AL, when in reality, it's a lot more urban/suburban and this is really what seems to have powered Biden to outperform Obama 2008 in the state.

Furthermore, growth patterns in the state are really not very good for the GOP with rural areas which are mostly white and very heavily GOP shrinking while New Orleans and Baton Rouge have prominent growth. Unlike say MS or AL, there isn't a very significant rural black population in the state meaning the "black belt depopulation" shouldn't hurt Dems nearly as much in the state.

Next, Louisiana rurals generally aren't as dense as some of Alabama's or Mississippi's due to the lack of Appalachia influence on the state, which also in theory helps Dems and give these suburban communinties more influence.

And finally, we're seeing Southern suburbs slowly begin to become less racially polarized. Dem gains in whiter Atlanta suburbs was a huge part of pushing the state over the edge for Dems.

I don't think Louisiana is a state that is competitive now or will be in the immediate future, but long term if regional polarization decreases, it seems like a possibly closer state thanks to it's very suburban nature. I'm sketpical Dems would actually have the votes to win statewide in a normal year barring pretty extreme circumstances though

[UncleSam]

It all depends on New Orleans. If it gets big enough where it can outvote the rest of the state, then yes Dems can win. If it doesn’t get that big or if it gets hit by another Katrina, Dem chances go out the window.

Personally I feel like it is somewhat likely New Orleans gets hit hard by another hurricane well before LA is actually competitive, but you never know.

[Spectator]

No. I do not think so. JBE is a remnant of a bygone era, and even he only barely won in 2019 despite easily being the “ideal” candidate LA Dems could produce: socially conservative, popular incumbent, and a veteran.

It’s hard for me to imagine a candidate similar to him winning over enough Dems to make it through a statewide jungle primary in the post-Dobbs era. Let alone winning enough rural support as JBE did even if they did advance to the general(which is a necessity in Louisiana since winning the NOLA suburbs alone won’t cut it).

I don’t see NOLA or Baton Rouge becoming big enough to make up for that.

[Del Tachi]

The cities of New Orleans and Baton Rouge are actually quite small compared to the rest of their metro areas.  Both Metro BTR and GNO narrowly voted for Trump in 2020.  So while there is room for the GOP to fall in urban/suburban LA, the question is "why would they?"

The economy of South Louisiana is very tied to offshore oil/natural gas, not exactly a D-leaning "knowledge economy" sector with high growth.  Medium-sized cities in South Louisiana (i.e., Lafayatte, Lake Charles, Houma/Thibodaux) are rapidly Republican and becoming even more so.

North Lousiana is very rural and Evangelical a la Mississippi, so it doesn't seem to be a potential future basket of votes for Democrats either.

JBE is an interesting model for other Deep South Democrats to try to emulate.  He ran very well in white suburbs but still got absolutely crushed in the rurals in 2019.  His 2015 and 2019 coalitions were pretty different.   

[Spectator]

I agree with your points, but I wouldn’t characterize JBE as getting “crushed” in rurals in 2019. He obviously did a lot better in them in 2015, but even in 2019, he got 10-20% (or more) than what Dems otherwise get in top level races in rural counties.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Dems are still in freefall in the smaller metros (i.e. not New Orleans, Baton Rouge, or Shreveport) and it's unlikely where future gains could come from given that they're not attracting many of a cosmopolitan disposition, or many at all for that matter, and the regional economy remains rooted in typically conservative professions like oil and gas.

[TDAS04]

Cajuns now vote like other Deep South whites.  That hasn’t always been the case, but it is now.  That’s a problem for Democrats in Louisiana.

[Frodo]

Cajuns now vote like other Deep South whites.  That hasn’t always been the case, but it is now.  That’s a problem for Democrats in Louisiana.

And if conservative African Americans start voting more Republican like their Latino counterparts, Democrats can effectively kiss goodbye to whatever chances they had at reclaiming not only Louisiana but also Mississippi in the next few decades.  And Harry will be very, very depressed for the rest of his time here on Atlas... 

[Skill and Chance]

I do think Louisiana looks like a better Dem prospect than Mississippi, but it will take time for Dems to gain in the NOLA suburbs and if the black vote moves to the center in any meaningful way during that time, the door is closed.  It does seem like the kind of place where just being pro-life can swing a bunch of votes even if the candidate has fairly mainstream left views on other issues, so that's something to watch.  There's a general argument that if the abortion bans in the Deep South are seen as locked in to the point where state/local Dems stop challenging them, Dem performance could improve.

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

I think they do, there's a good chance IMO that it may become the next Georgia. I think that ongoing climate change may prove to be a factor as well and that we may see it become competitive around 2032.

Honestly without Hurrican Katrina indirectly causing New Orleans to become marginally whiter it may have happened sooner.

[It’s so Joever]

No! The “next Georgia” is Tennessee if you really are looking for one. Louisiana is a place we have more to lose.

[ProgressiveModerate]

No! The “next Georgia” is Tennessee if you really are looking for one. Louisiana is a place we have more to lose.

Except what exactly do Dems have to lose in Louisiana. White rurals already voted over 90% for Trump in 2020 pretty consistently throughout the state and you have a lot of red suburbs

[It’s so Joever]

No! The “next Georgia” is Tennessee if you really are looking for one. Louisiana is a place we have more to lose.

Except what exactly do Dems have to lose in Louisiana. White rurals already voted over 90% for Trump in 2020 pretty consistently throughout the state and you have a lot of red suburbs

Black rurals.

[Spectator]

No! The “next Georgia” is Tennessee if you really are looking for one. Louisiana is a place we have more to lose.

Except what exactly do Dems have to lose in Louisiana. White rurals already voted over 90% for Trump in 2020 pretty consistently throughout the state and you have a lot of red suburbs

Black rurals.

This. And it’s just stasis. The margin didn’t change really from 2008-2020. The “next Georgia” in the south is Texas and North Carolina, but those states aren’t really applicable either since Democrats have places in those states where they’re losing minority rural ground. In the long run, NC and TX should be blue tilting, but it depends on if the trends in the metro areas persist, which I think they will do long as the parties fundamentally stay the same.

[ProgressiveModerate]

No! The “next Georgia” is Tennessee if you really are looking for one. Louisiana is a place we have more to lose.

Except what exactly do Dems have to lose in Louisiana. White rurals already voted over 90% for Trump in 2020 pretty consistently throughout the state and you have a lot of red suburbs

Black rurals.

Except rural black areas don't exist in masse the way they do in some other deep South states. However, you do have a lot of mid-sized communities with significant black populations such as Alexandria, Monroe, and Lafayette, where African American growth of shrinkage could be key.

The bigger Danger imo would either be urban blacks shifting significantly right or climate change knocking out significant swaths of African American neighborhoods in New Orleans

[Vice President Christian Man]

Anything is possible but it’s about as relevant as Mass going GOP at the national level.

[nclib]

2008-2020 swing map

Deceptive, since due to Katrina, LA was unusually Repub in 2008, being one of the 5 states to swing McCain in 2008 and one of the 5 states to swing Obama in 2012.

LA is not high on the list for being competitive for Dems.