In a hypothetical Andy Beshear win, what counties would he win?

[IceSpear]

This should be interesting. I'm particularly interested in hearing from the people who think he has a legit chance to win.

[lfromnj]

ICE IM SORRY I said elliot was tilt R but it turns out Hal rogers won Elliot this year
Im moving it to Likely R bordering on Safe.

Anyway the 3 you said  Franklin,Fayette and Jefferson of course. Those are Safe except maybe Franklin which is Likely D if beshear collapses
Id say Rowan is lean to Likely R.
Also surprise from Campbell county. I don't  think Beshear wins it but the margin will be close.

If rocky adkins gets the nomination then Id have to move Elliot to tilt R as he is insanely popular and entrenched there but Im not sure.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

I shifted margins a few points further towards Democrats than I think they will end up at, but here is my benchmark for a narrow Democratic win.

[lfromnj]

I shifted margins a few points further towards Democrats than I think they will end up at, but here is my benchmark for a narrow Democratic win.

what are the 5 counties spread around in the Sw
I understand the lexington louisville metro
Also rowan
Also the Cinci burbs but what are those counties in the SW?

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

I shifted margins a few points further towards Democrats than I think they will end up at, but here is my benchmark for a narrow Democratic win.

what are the 5 counties spread around in the Sw
I understand the lexington louisville metro
Also rowan
Also the Cinci burbs but what are those counties in the SW?

Daviess is a relatively wealthy county in a minor metro area. Trending R, but slowly. It was about Romney+21, Trump+31.

Hardin is a similar story. It swung to Trump, but not very strong, and Clinton still did better than Kerry.

Warren is the center of a minor metro area. McCain+19, Romney+22, Trump+24. No noticeably trend.

Calloway is R-trending, but slowly, and it's relatively urbanized.

Marshall is ancestrally Democratic and weirdly well educated. Possible that that is a data entry error.

Basically, most of those counties are minor metro areas that are around 25 points more Republican than the nation and not noticeably R-trending. They're not Democratic strongholds, but they can still go for Democrats.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The same counties Ernie Fletcher won and Conway won or came close in

[ElectionsGuy]

I shifted margins a few points further towards Democrats than I think they will end up at, but here is my benchmark for a narrow Democratic win.

Give or take a few counties, I would agree. But Oldham and Boone are probably too Republican (historically Republican too, this is important in statewide races where national election trends tend to lag) for any Democrat to win.

[Gass3268]

I shifted margins a few points further towards Democrats than I think they will end up at, but here is my benchmark for a narrow Democratic win.

Give or take a few counties, I would agree. But Oldham and Boone are probably too Republican (historically Republican too, this is important in statewide races where national election trends tend to lag) for any Democrat to win.

Beshear would probably still win Elliot County and probably a random county in the Southeast part of the state we couldn't guess today.

[JoeyJoeJoe]

If it's one of those random counties, Floyd is famously historically Democratic; Breathitt is also one of the most historically Dem counties.  Knott used to be one but it's gone for the Dems.

[Bidenworth2020]

eliott will go for beshear in a close race, no doubt.

[lfromnj]

eliott will go for beshear in a close race, no doubt.

Just like Logan and Manchin lol. Campbell is more likely to flip than elliot

[Bidenworth2020]

eliott will go for beshear in a close race, no doubt.

Just like Logan and Manchin lol. Campbell is more likely to flip than elliot

I know you love this "rural areas are gone for Democrats period" and the trends are going that way no doubt, but this is stupid. Logan was a county Obama lost both times and Clinton lost by 70! Manchin got it to 2 points. Eliott, on the other hand, voted for Obama in 2012 and "only" went to Trump by 45. Not to mention Dems still hold all local offices there pretty much. I'm not saying this will be the type of win Dems used to get here in the 90's, and I'm not even sure if the race will be close enough to keep it dem, but  if it is within 10 or so, it will vote democrat. Keep in mind this voted this county was only lost by 9 by joke Kenneth Stepp.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yeah the whole bit about Elliott voting for Harold Rogers kind of misses the point: he got 54% in the county and won with almost 80% district-wide.

[Bidenworth2020]

Yeah the whole bit about Elliott voting for Harold Rogers kind of misses the point: he got 54% in the county and won with almost 80% district-wide.

Exactly. Thats my whole point.