I shifted margins a few points further towards Democrats than I think they will end up at, but here is my benchmark for a narrow Democratic win.
Give or take a few counties, I would agree. But Oldham and Boone are probably too Republican (historically Republican too, this is important in statewide races where national election trends tend to lag) for any Democrat to win.
Beshear would probably still win Elliot County and probably a random county in the Southeast part of the state we couldn't guess today.
