In a hypothetical Andy Beshear win, what counties would he win?

[lfromnj]

ICE IM SORRY I said elliot was tilt R but it turns out Hal rogers won Elliot this year
Im moving it to Likely R bordering on Safe.

Anyway the 3 you said  Franklin,Fayette and Jefferson of course. Those are Safe except maybe Franklin which is Likely D if beshear collapses
Id say Rowan is lean to Likely R.
Also surprise from Campbell county. I don't  think Beshear wins it but the margin will be close.

If rocky adkins gets the nomination then Id have to move Elliot to tilt R as he is insanely popular and entrenched there but Im not sure.

[lfromnj]

I shifted margins a few points further towards Democrats than I think they will end up at, but here is my benchmark for a narrow Democratic win.

what are the 5 counties spread around in the Sw
I understand the lexington louisville metro
Also rowan
Also the Cinci burbs but what are those counties in the SW?

[lfromnj]

eliott will go for beshear in a close race, no doubt.

Just like Logan and Manchin lol. Campbell is more likely to flip than elliot