I shifted margins a few points further towards Democrats than I think they will end up at, but here is my benchmark for a narrow Democratic win.
what are the 5 counties spread around in the Sw
I understand the lexington louisville metro
Also rowan
Also the Cinci burbs but what are those counties in the SW?
Daviess is a relatively wealthy county in a minor metro area. Trending R, but slowly. It was about Romney+21, Trump+31.
Hardin is a similar story. It swung to Trump, but not very strong, and Clinton still did better than Kerry.
Warren is the center of a minor metro area. McCain+19, Romney+22, Trump+24. No noticeably trend.
Calloway is R-trending, but slowly, and it's relatively urbanized.
Marshall is ancestrally Democratic and weirdly well educated. Possible that that is a data entry error.
Basically, most of those counties are minor metro areas that are around 25 points more Republican than the nation and not noticeably R-trending. They're not Democratic strongholds, but they can still go for Democrats.
