538 Senate Forecast Megathread: Currently Projecting 6 Democratic Pick Ups (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
May 18, 2024, 09:33:08 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  538 Senate Forecast Megathread: Currently Projecting 6 Democratic Pick Ups (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: 538 Senate Forecast Megathread: Currently Projecting 6 Democratic Pick Ups  (Read 4927 times)
Figueira
84285
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,173
« on: October 17, 2016, 08:05:03 AM »
Looks like the coattails have arrived!
Logged
Figueira
84285
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,173
« Reply #1 on: October 17, 2016, 04:28:31 PM »
NC is now tied in margin and chances.
Logged
Figueira
84285
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,173
« Reply #2 on: October 17, 2016, 08:46:43 PM »
Quote from: Jante's Law Revivalist on October 17, 2016, 06:14:49 PM
Quote from: Vosem on October 17, 2016, 04:49:04 PM
Quote from: Jante's Law Revivalist on October 17, 2016, 04:35:29 PM
Quote from: Figueira on October 17, 2016, 04:28:31 PM
NC is now tied in margin and chances.

I don't get why. There hasn't been any poll showing Ross ahead recently, and the most recent one has Burr+1.

He takes generic congressional ballot polls into account.

Meh, I wouldn't put much trust into generic ballot polls. People don't have an option to vote for "generic Democrat" or "generic Republican", they can only vote for the candidates that are actually running where they live.

Sure, but it means that if Ayotte, Burr, and Toomey win, it won't be because voters want a "check" on Clinton or whatever.
Logged
Figueira
84285
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,173
« Reply #3 on: October 17, 2016, 09:32:03 PM »
Quote from: Jante's Law Revivalist on October 17, 2016, 08:54:00 PM
Quote from: Figueira on October 17, 2016, 08:46:43 PM
Quote from: Jante's Law Revivalist on October 17, 2016, 06:14:49 PM
Quote from: Vosem on October 17, 2016, 04:49:04 PM
Quote from: Jante's Law Revivalist on October 17, 2016, 04:35:29 PM
Quote from: Figueira on October 17, 2016, 04:28:31 PM
NC is now tied in margin and chances.

I don't get why. There hasn't been any poll showing Ross ahead recently, and the most recent one has Burr+1.

He takes generic congressional ballot polls into account.

Meh, I wouldn't put much trust into generic ballot polls. People don't have an option to vote for "generic Democrat" or "generic Republican", they can only vote for the candidates that are actually running where they live.

Sure, but it means that if Ayotte, Burr, and Toomey win, it won't be because voters want a "check" on Clinton or whatever.

Yeah, that would at least be the silver lining.

More important, however, is making sure they don't win.

Obviously.

But I think it's clear that if they win it's because of factors in those particular races, not because voters think it's somehow noble to want a Republican Congress and a Democratic President.
Logged
Figueira
84285
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,173
« Reply #4 on: October 19, 2016, 09:03:00 AM »
I'm not quite as pessimistic as Antonio, but I'm also concerned that something is wrong with the model. The Democrats will probably win the Senate, but it isn't guaranteed.
Logged
Figueira
84285
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,173
« Reply #5 on: October 19, 2016, 10:09:22 PM »
NC is still winnable, although I'm currently giving Burr the edge.
Logged
Figueira
84285
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,173
« Reply #6 on: October 31, 2016, 04:59:53 PM »
Quote from: Zombie Spenstar on October 31, 2016, 03:22:27 PM
second update: Blunt is back to being a favourite in Missouri

Kind of confirms what I already suspected. Still Tossup, Tilt R.
Logged
Figueira
84285
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,173
« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2016, 09:12:36 PM »
The model is going to be around 50% (give or take like 5%) on Election Day. The Senate is basically a coin flip at this point; I would say the Democrats have a very, very slight advantage.
Logged
Figueira
84285
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,173
« Reply #8 on: November 07, 2016, 10:05:33 AM »
Quote from: Rocky Rockefeller on November 07, 2016, 07:23:21 AM

I cant beleve how badly democrats blew this election, they couldnt have been given better odds.

It isn't over yet, but yeah the Democrats really messed up in Ohio and Florida.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.029 seconds with 10 queries.