538 Senate Forecast Megathread: Currently Projecting 6 Democratic Pick Ups

[Mr. Smith]

Is the DSCC going to take the money they beat out of Murphy and give it to the Kentucky Dems then, or are they going to come to their senses and give Murphy the money he needs to win?

Murphy would be lucky to pull a Sestak at this point.

[Mr. Smith]

Is the DSCC going to take the money they beat out of Murphy and give it to the Kentucky Dems then, or are they going to come to their senses and give Murphy the money he needs to win?

Murphy would be lucky to pull a Sestak at this point.

a what? Joe Sestak lost the general. That's why we're talking up McGinty and not defending Sestak's seat. Or is there something Im missing?

You're missing what I'm saying.

DSCC and the Establishment heads in 2010 were pricks to poor Sestak because he dared challenge  DINO Specter.

But he managed to barely lose to Toomey in spite of being thrown under the bus.


I do not believe Murphy will be able to pull it off.

[Mr. Smith]

51-49 R now....

[Mr. Smith]

This is really nonsense. Everybody knows tossups go overwhelmingly in one direction. I have become more optimistic about the GOP's chances to avoid a big loss (54-46, 53-47), though even that is still very much possible, but they won't keep the Senate, they really won't. Not in a presidential election that is going to be won by the Democrats by more than 5 points.

75%-80% chance that Dems win the Senate.

In 1988 Dems lost the presidential election by 8 points yet they still won the senate

That was back before the GOP '94 swipe, therefore rendered moot.