Honestly, while the low level of polling in both states is absolutely maddening, I do suspect that Kander is a likelier winner than McGinty at this point. Blunt has been running completely asleep, while Toomey (and Kander, obviously) has been running a very good, solid campaign. Still possible, maybe likely, that Hillary's PA victory pulls in McGinty (someone better than Emerson needs to confirm Quinnipiac's findings here), but Toomey is by no means dead.
Yeah, this isn't far from the truth. McGinty has been getting slammed with negative advertising from Toomey (curiously they're attacks from the left on her) and is generally be portrayed terribly.
Really a shame the Democrats did so terribly in 2014 and lost seats like CO and IA, it made this year 10 times harder when it should even now be a slam dunk.
