House Districts where the General Election matters

[Mr.Phips]

If the Republican Party keeps on its current path, New Jersey could wind up at 9D 3R by the end of the decade. Garrett and Runyan might lose generals if the mood sours -- neither are especially popular incumbents -- and LoBiondo's seat is lean Democrat if he retires, even in a good GOP year.

Heaven forbid Leonard Lance retire. If some Mike Pappas-style conservative wins the GOP primary, we could even see a 10D 2R scenario. Lance's district isn't trending Republican long-term.

NJ-07 will probably stay Republican as long as it includes most all of Hunterdon and doesnt include the most Democratic areas of Middlesex and Union. 

[Mr.Phips]

If the Republican Party keeps on its current path, New Jersey could wind up at 9D 3R by the end of the decade. Garrett and Runyan might lose generals if the mood sours -- neither are especially popular incumbents -- and LoBiondo's seat is lean Democrat if he retires, even in a good GOP year.

Heaven forbid Leonard Lance retire. If some Mike Pappas-style conservative wins the GOP primary, we could even see a 10D 2R scenario. Lance's district isn't trending Republican long-term.

NJ-07 will probably stay Republican as long as it includes most all of Hunterdon and doesnt include the most Democratic areas of Middlesex and Union. 

Republicans don't have anything to worry about in Hunterdon, at least for now. But the problem is that those "Republican" areas of Middlesex and Union -- and really, even parts of Somerset -- could easily be lean Democratic by 2022. They're rich areas, but they're not culturally conservative areas. And they're prime target for wealthy New Yorkers looking for a suburban haven for raising kids.

For reference, see what happened to Millburn.

The Republicans could very well be reduced to just two seats(Smith and Freulyingson) if the commission tiebreaker picks the Dem map for 2022.  Democrats would almost certainly unpack NJ-12, NJ-01, and NJ-09, which would probably spell the end for Garrett and Runyan and would leave Lance with a real fight every two years if he is still around. 

[Mr.Phips]

If the Republican Party keeps on its current path, New Jersey could wind up at 9D 3R by the end of the decade. Garrett and Runyan might lose generals if the mood sours -- neither are especially popular incumbents -- and LoBiondo's seat is lean Democrat if he retires, even in a good GOP year.

Heaven forbid Leonard Lance retire. If some Mike Pappas-style conservative wins the GOP primary, we could even see a 10D 2R scenario. Lance's district isn't trending Republican long-term.

NJ-07 will probably stay Republican as long as it includes most all of Hunterdon and doesnt include the most Democratic areas of Middlesex and Union. 

Republicans don't have anything to worry about in Hunterdon, at least for now. But the problem is that those "Republican" areas of Middlesex and Union -- and really, even parts of Somerset -- could easily be lean Democratic by 2022. They're rich areas, but they're not culturally conservative areas. And they're prime target for wealthy New Yorkers looking for a suburban haven for raising kids.

For reference, see what happened to Millburn.

The Republicans could very well be reduced to just two seats(Smith and Freulyingson) if the commission tiebreaker picks the Dem map for 2022.  Democrats would almost certainly unpack NJ-12, NJ-01, and NJ-09, which would probably spell the end for Garrett and Runyan and would leave Lance with a real fight every two years if he is still around. 

Ultimately, the difference between the commission choosing the Republican map or the Democratic map is one seat. Both parties have to create a map that an independent will approve, so they generally don't get too aggressive.

Even a fairly even handed map would shift a lot of Dems into NJ-05 and NJ-07. 

[Mr.Phips]

Even a fairly even handed map would shift a lot of Dems into NJ-05 and NJ-07. 

NJ-05, yes; NJ-07, no. Lance probably won't retire before the next redistricting, and he's simply unbeatable under any fair set of lines. He won an open seat in a highly competitive district by 10 points against, arguably, the best possible opponent Democrats had to throw at him.

The map submitted by Democrats in 2010 didn't target Lance -- IIRC, it made him just as safe as the GOP map. The only real argument was over Garrett/Rothman, and we all know that Rothman drew a seriously short straw in that one.

The 2001 version of NJ-07 was still fairly Republicanly gerrymandered.  It took in most of Hunterdon and the least Democratic parts of Somerset, Union, and Middlesex in order to make NJ-12 safe for Holt.  

Stender would have beaten Ferguson in 2006 with breathing room under the 1991 NJ-07 and would have even beaten Lance there in 2008 too.  A district like the 1991-2001 version of NJ-07 would give Lance a really tough fight every two years and he probably lose in the first Demo year there.  He'd be near safe in the 2001-2011 version of NJ-07 and totally safe in the current version of NJ-07.  The 1991-2001 version would be a completely different story.  

[Mr.Phips]

If youre including NV-04, you definately need to include NV-03.