🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[Pericles]

My first impression is that Timmermans is very qualified and he has been effective in the past. Hopefully the left is a strong presence in this election. Apparently the joint list are now first place in the polls, I'm interested to know how it's going down with the voters.

[Pericles]

Who does it look like Omtzigt benefits or hurts? The hypothetical polling seems to show him forming the largest party and taking a lot of support from many parties, though maybe more from the right. Does it look like he has the skills to actually live up to those expectations?

[Pericles]

Is the VVD vote holding up relatively well, considering the economic situation and that they have been in power for 13 years? Doesn't appear to be a collapse like the UK Tories, but of course despite the same length in power the political contexts are very different so I'm interested in an informed take on this. Yesilgoz is new in her role of course, so how do you think the leaders are affecting the vote?

[Pericles]

Edit: According to a 'flash poll' after the debate by SBS6's own panel, 49% of those who watched thought Wilders won, 20% thought Yesilgöz won, 19% thought Omtzigt won, 8% thought Timmermans won and 4% thought no one won.

63% of those who watched say this debate will affect their vote - 43% became more certain of their choice, 12% started doubting their choice and 8% have switched their first preference.

He's fourth right now? In a close election like this, could that debate be enough to change his position?

[Pericles]

Looks like it would be very difficult to form a government-what's the pathway from this?

[Pericles]

I mean GL-PvdA+VVD+NSC+D66 form a majority, but not sure whether it would be a good idea politically to exclude PVV from government (for VVD)

Does the prospect of Timmermans as PM make it harder than if the VVD got second? PM from third feels weird.

[Pericles]

I wonder if Timmermans's time at the EU and as Climate commissioner was a liability with the general electorate, even if it helped with the GL-PvdA base.

[Pericles]

If I were the PVDA-GL, I'd shut down any ideas of being in a broad government and instead do some real deep autopsy of what the hell went wrong. Going into government seems like a surefire way to collapse even more for them at this point. The people voted for PVV, and they'll have to deal with that. Now they need to find out *why*.

They seem like the party with the least downside from a grand coalition.

Ultimately in a parliamentary democracy it's about counting to 50%+1 and not just a small plurality. Obviously there are political considerations and it wouldn't be easy to form a government without the PVV, but it would be democratic because it would be a majority of Parliament (as of course a coalition with the PVV would be). There isn't some moral argument for Wilders lol.

[Pericles]

Hopefully PM Timmermans is at least being considered. The Netherlands would have to pay a huge price to uphold a dumb convention that the first placed party gets to govern.

[Pericles]

Hopefully PM Timmermans is at least being considered. The Netherlands would have to pay a huge price to uphold a dumb convention that the first placed party gets to govern.

This seems impossible. Not (just) because of the idea that the first place party gets to govern, but also (and mostly) because it would be political suicide for VVD and NSC. 79% of VVD voters and 78% of NSC voters find the only remotely possible option with GL-PvdA (i.e. GLPvdA-VVD-NSC-D66) unacceptable while 84% of VVD voters and 81% of NSC voters find PVV-VVD-NSC-BBB acceptable. Pressure on VVD and NSC to enter a right-wing coalition is massive and if they don't, a new election would still be more likely than any Timmermans-led government.

And the VVD coming third rules Yesilgoz out of being PM, even though it was just by one seat? Wonder if the conversation would be any different if they'd done slightly better.

[Pericles]

No news, no leaks yet (usually a good sign) and also no indication the parties won't be able to make a deal, although it will be difficult - part of the NSC parliamentary group is said to be very critical. Christmas recess now, so parties are taking a break from the talks now.

Any risk of defections from them in case of a deal that would shrink the government's majority? Is that a thing in Dutch politics?

[Pericles]

No news, no leaks yet (usually a good sign) and also no indication the parties won't be able to make a deal, although it will be difficult - part of the NSC parliamentary group is said to be very critical. Christmas recess now, so parties are taking a break from the talks now.

Any risk of defections from them in case of a deal that would shrink the government's majority? Is that a thing in Dutch politics?

We can't rule it out at all, but I think Omtzigt will try to prevent this at every step in the process especially because he himself has doubts that are entirely in line with those of the critics. In any case, with BBB in the coalition, the coalition would have 88 seats, so 13 NSC MPs would have to go to make the government lose its majority. Omtzigt would probably pull the plug entirely before this would happen.

What alternative has been suggested by this NSC faction? Another election sounds like it would be their preference but the current polls obviously make that a big risk.

[Pericles]

The result: NSC have big doubts about the government formation. "The only possibility would be an expert government - with a distance to party politics from here to the moon", an NSC source told NOS.

What's that supposed to mean, with whose votes is that being formed?