Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)
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Author Topic: Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)  (Read 169867 times)
TWTown
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« Reply #1000 on: May 21, 2019, 07:54:06 PM »
Come on Friedenberg, did that Trump rally really boost Keller or is this just a solid R county.
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ctherainbow
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« Reply #1001 on: May 21, 2019, 07:58:22 PM »
Quote from: TWTown on May 21, 2019, 07:54:06 PM
Come on Friedenberg, did that Trump rally really boost Keller or is this just a solid R county.

All the counties in the district are pretty solidly R besides Centre.  Margins in Lycoming, Susquehanna, Union, Northumberland, and Clinton will be important to watch, though.

Lycoming especially will be fun to analyze given that the former R rep for the district was from Lycoming, so comparing the loss of that hometown effect vs the Trump rally will be interesting.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #1002 on: May 21, 2019, 07:58:27 PM »
Quote from: TWTown on May 21, 2019, 07:54:06 PM
Come on Friedenberg, did that Trump rally really boost Keller or is this just a solid R county.

This is the definition of Solid R territory, sitting at R+17. We would be lucky to get 40% of the vote.
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #1003 on: May 21, 2019, 08:00:00 PM »
Fun fact: Pennsylvania has 2 Counties in it that have never at any point voted Democratic at the presidential level. Both are wholly within this District. Union and Snyder.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1004 on: May 21, 2019, 08:02:31 PM »
andidate   Party   Votes   Pct.
Fred Keller
Republican
2,273   73.9%
Marc Friedenberg
Democrat
801   26.1
3,074 votes, 3% reporting (16 of 555 precincts)
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1005 on: May 21, 2019, 08:04:23 PM »
Keller at only 58% in Union County!  (Marino got 62%)

The other three counties are right in line with 2018 though
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1006 on: May 21, 2019, 08:05:35 PM »
Candidate   Party   Votes   Pct.
Fred Keller
Republican
3,203   69.6%
Marc Friedenberg
Democrat
1,397   30.4
4,600 votes, 4% reporting (23 of 555 precincts)

Lycoming just narrowed a bunch. This might not be over!
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Sestak
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« Reply #1007 on: May 21, 2019, 08:07:02 PM »
How much is the overperformance to 2018 by?
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1008 on: May 21, 2019, 08:10:10 PM »

Candidate   Party   Votes   Pct.
Fred Keller
Republican
7,089   68.4%
Marc Friedenberg
Democrat
3,281   31.6
10,370 votes, 9% reporting (51 of 555 precincts)

Very nice start in Clinton County, only down by 10 there. (Marino won it by 24)
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1009 on: May 21, 2019, 08:13:17 PM »
Quote from: Deeply Disturbing on May 21, 2019, 08:07:02 PM
How much is the overperformance to 2018 by?

Keller is doing slightly better than Marino in Northumberland (73% vs 71%), and Tioga (76% vs 75%), is doing the same as Marino in Perry, but is doing worse than Marino in the rest:

Union: 58% vs 62%
Clinton: 55% vs 62%
Lycoming: 66% vs 71%
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1010 on: May 21, 2019, 08:15:50 PM »

Candidate   Party   Votes   Pct.
Fred Keller
Republican
9,135   70.2%
Marc Friedenberg
Democrat
3,883   29.8
13,018 votes, 12% reporting (65 of 555 precincts)

Keller even with Marino in Juanita County
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1011 on: May 21, 2019, 08:19:36 PM »
Wyoming County also at 2018 levels

-----------------------------------


WULFRIC PROJECTION:


Candidate   Party   Votes   Pct.
Fred Keller
Republican
16,145   70.1%
Marc Friedenberg
Democrat
6,882   29.9
23,027 votes, 20% reporting (109 of 555 precincts)

Wow this is just sad
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ctherainbow
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« Reply #1012 on: May 21, 2019, 08:23:49 PM »
Quote from: Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon on May 21, 2019, 08:15:50 PM

Candidate   Party   Votes   Pct.
Fred Keller
Republican
9,135   70.2%
Marc Friedenberg
Democrat
3,883   29.8
13,018 votes, 12% reporting (65 of 555 precincts)

Keller even with Marino in Juanita County



I'm giggling uncontrollably @ "Juanita" County.   Tongue
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1013 on: May 21, 2019, 08:26:59 PM »
Quote from: Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon on May 21, 2019, 08:19:36 PM
Wyoming County also at 2018 levels

-----------------------------------


WULFRIC PROJECTION:


Candidate   Party   Votes   Pct.
Fred Keller
Republican
16,145   70.1%
Marc Friedenberg
Democrat
6,882   29.9
23,027 votes, 20% reporting (109 of 555 precincts)

Wow this is just sad

Wait those votes are off. Trump got 9k votes here in 2016 There is no way that a Republican got double the votes of Trump in a SE.
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Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
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« Reply #1014 on: May 21, 2019, 08:38:31 PM »
this is pretty much the same as 2018 in rural, but I expect a turnout spike in Centre.
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Matty
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« Reply #1015 on: May 21, 2019, 08:45:42 PM »
Wasserman says Centre will determine who wins

Says rural areas in line with 2018, but if Centre turnout spikes big, dems could steal the race
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Continential
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« Reply #1016 on: May 21, 2019, 08:45:43 PM »
Quote from: Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon on May 21, 2019, 08:19:36 PM
Wyoming County also at 2018 levels

-----------------------------------


WULFRIC PROJECTION:


Candidate Party Votes Pct.
Fred Keller
Republican
16,145 70.1%
Marc Friedenberg
Democrat
6,882 29.9
23,027 votes, 20% reporting (109 of 555 precincts)

Wow this is just sad
alexa play despacito
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Sestak
jk2020
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« Reply #1017 on: May 21, 2019, 08:47:40 PM »
Quote from: marty on May 21, 2019, 08:45:42 PM
Wasserman says Centre will determine who wins

Says rural areas in line with 2018, but if Centre turnout spikes big, dems could steal the race

Where are you seeing this?
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ctherainbow
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« Reply #1018 on: May 21, 2019, 08:50:50 PM »
Quote from: marty on May 21, 2019, 08:45:42 PM
Wasserman says Centre will determine who wins

Says rural areas in line with 2018, but if Centre turnout spikes big, dems could steal the race

Centre turnout would have to be COLOSSAL for this district to be an actual D win. 
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1019 on: May 21, 2019, 08:51:46 PM »
Quote from: Deeply Disturbing on May 21, 2019, 08:47:40 PM
Quote from: marty on May 21, 2019, 08:45:42 PM
Wasserman says Centre will determine who wins

Says rural areas in line with 2018, but if Centre turnout spikes big, dems could steal the race

Where are you seeing this?

He trolls like this. Usually a average to slight FF poster but has troll moments like these.
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ctherainbow
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« Reply #1020 on: May 21, 2019, 08:52:12 PM »
NYT's called it for Keller.  Now I wait to see the margins.  
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Sestak
jk2020
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« Reply #1021 on: May 21, 2019, 08:52:45 PM »
Quote from: Elliot County Populist on May 21, 2019, 08:51:46 PM
Quote from: Deeply Disturbing on May 21, 2019, 08:47:40 PM
Quote from: marty on May 21, 2019, 08:45:42 PM
Wasserman says Centre will determine who wins

Says rural areas in line with 2018, but if Centre turnout spikes big, dems could steal the race

Where are you seeing this?

He trolls like this. Usually a average to slight FF poster but has troll moments like these.

Yeah but he’s on so infrequently I keep forgetting about it. Thanks for the reminder lmao.
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Matty
boshembechle
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« Reply #1022 on: May 21, 2019, 08:55:22 PM »
Quote from: Deeply Disturbing on May 21, 2019, 08:52:45 PM
Quote from: Elliot County Populist on May 21, 2019, 08:51:46 PM
Quote from: Deeply Disturbing on May 21, 2019, 08:47:40 PM
Quote from: marty on May 21, 2019, 08:45:42 PM
Wasserman says Centre will determine who wins

Says rural areas in line with 2018, but if Centre turnout spikes big, dems could steal the race

Where are you seeing this?

He trolls like this. Usually a average to slight FF poster but has troll moments like these.

Yeah but he’s on so infrequently I keep forgetting about it. Thanks for the reminder lmao.

A troll or 2 never hurt anyone

Anyway, I’m guessing Centre county comes in last here
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Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸
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« Reply #1023 on: May 21, 2019, 08:57:04 PM »
« Edited: May 21, 2019, 09:00:14 PM by Thunder98 »


Keller is blazin it
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1024 on: May 21, 2019, 08:59:27 PM »

lol
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