2016 Michigan to me seems like the Republicans' version of 2008 North Carolina. A bare win during a perfect storm, but where the exact demographic coalition needed to win never manages to manifest itself again for another 3-5 cycles. I suspect it stays healthily to the left of PA and WI
This seems accurate except I don't think it will be that far to the left of PA because I think the first sentence also describes Pennsylvania. No Republican can match what Trump did there and it will probably recede to a 2-3 point Dem state.
Unlike Michigan, Pennsylvania has trended right in every election cycle since 2004. Biden's PA margin was less than half of that in MI, and he won PA only with a plurality.
